@prognozu

#36,89587

0x8199d2d2813a60bc15580cc97f2e0e54c73abb6d

~310d· 316 markets · 4045 tradesVol: $511,269 @martselev2026-08-04 18:13:01
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

87
Elite
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

86% (211/244)20/20
1.88x (win $7,193 / loss $3,820)13.5/15
Annualised Sharpe 2.92915/15
Sortino 4.03210/10
$+0.0133 per $1 invested0.7/10
HHI 266 (244 markets)10/10
132/151 profitable days (87%)10/10
Max DD 30% of peak ($1,017 / $3,374)8/10

Badges

8
Sniper
Win rate 86%
Profitable
PnL $+3,108
DCA Master
Avg 13.0 entries/market
Whale
$253,283 invested
Consistent
132/151 profitable days
Win Streak
25 wins in a row
🦉Night Owl
24/24 hours active
🏗️Market Maker
97% maker orders

Categories

8
🏛️ POLITICS#7,787$3,660Vol: $422,925
💰 FINANCE#627,455$-78Vol: $47,955
CRYPTO#61,993$222Vol: $16,054
🎭 CULTURE#808,149$-678Vol: $13,427
📈 ECONOMICS#26,166$25Vol: $10,330
💻 TECH#238,996$-28Vol: $400
🌤️ WEATHER#235,280$-7Vol: $145
SPORTS#1,391,519$-13Vol: $24

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$3,108
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$511,269
Total Redeem
$0
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
316
total markets
Trades
2378B / 1667S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~310d

Periods

#2
Today
$-75
Vol: $148
Week
$-128
Vol: $2,431
Month
$-287
Vol: $4,282
All Time
$3,108
Vol: $511,269

PnL Analysis

#3

Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology

Win Rate (events)
86%
211W / 33L events
Realized PnL
$3,108
Win Rate
86%
211W / 33L
Profit Factor
1.88x
Avg Win
$34
Avg Loss
$-127

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $1,724 (0.554582483414518% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?$808
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?$543
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?$372
Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026?$300
Iran strike on Qatar by February 28, 2026?$286
Will there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by July 31, 2026?$273
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by August 31?$257
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May?$220
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?$209
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by December 31?$188

Top Losers

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?$-1,161
Will Assad remain President of Syria through 2024?$-721
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$-632
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?$-356
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m?$-285
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?$-274
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 184m?$-127
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?$-80
US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 31?$-36

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.153
Sortino
0.086
HHI
122
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.018
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
5.1%
Top-5 markets
18.1%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
6.6
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.5
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
11:00 UTC
Median Gap
14.2m
between trades
Avg Gap
1.6h
between trades
Night Trading
18%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.83
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
4 min
Avg Trades / Session
5.8

Bot Detection

#6
35
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 852s — normal for humanCV 1.83 — diverse sizes (human-like)18% night trades — unusual hours24/24 hours — around the clock7 trades/day — normal0.5 markets/day — normal97% maker — systematic market making

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 11:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
12.95
Heavy DCA

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)8.5%
Mid (20-55c)8.5%
High (>55c)83.1%

Sessions

#12
2/28/2026, 6:53:31 AM71 trades$7,70040 min
2/28/2026, 8:16:43 AM21 trades$4,11913 min
1/3/2026, 7:57:57 AM1 trades$2,7000 min
2/21/2026, 6:08:08 AM1 trades$2,4820 min
2/28/2026, 11:46:51 AM18 trades$2,37620 min
12/14/2024, 8:02:45 PM3 trades$2,0220 min
11/4/2025, 4:15:43 AM1 trades$1,9520 min
4/14/2026, 10:05:06 PM1 trades$1,9490 min
11/4/2025, 3:21:39 PM1 trades$1,9480 min
11/2/2025, 3:10:57 PM1 trades$1,9440 min
11/4/2025, 12:55:37 PM1 trades$1,9420 min
11/3/2025, 2:23:35 AM1 trades$1,9320 min
6/13/2026, 3:26:10 PM2 trades$1,8671 min
6/13/2026, 12:42:34 PM2 trades$1,8650 min
1/2/2026, 11:53:13 PM1 trades$1,8200 min
4/5/2026, 6:28:25 PM2 trades$1,7850 min
4/1/2026, 11:37:15 AM1 trades$1,7800 min
11/2/2025, 8:10:13 PM3 trades$1,7611 min
4/1/2026, 1:11:13 PM5 trades$1,7272 min
12/18/2024, 7:52:37 AM2 trades$1,7071 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
12-04
09-28
11-10
12-31
03-04
05-31
07-30

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Max drawdown: 17 days (recovered)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
41.2% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 12.95/mkt
Entry Bias
HIGH $
L8.5 / M8.5 / H83.1