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@Whimsical-Terminal

#3,032,28684

0x96489abcb9f583d6835c8ef95ffc923d05a86825

206d· 585 markets · 62111 tradesVol: $105,782,2732026-07-17T17:32
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

84
Very Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 62%16/20
Profit Factor 3.29x15/15
Sharpe 0.3186/15
Sortino 2.56810/10
EV $+1.46610/10
HHI 15710/10
Profit Days 57%7/10
DD/Peak 2%10/10

Summary

Whimsical-Terminal is a moderately active trader on Polymarket with 62,111 trades across 256 markets over 537 days. Despite significant trading volume exceeding $105 million, their net PnL stands at approximately negative $5.4 million, placing them at rank #3,032,286 on the global leaderboard. Their portfolio value remains relatively strong at about $1.7 million, supported by a Smart Score of 84/100, indicating skilled trading despite losses.

The trader’s strategy appears to rely heavily on automated, high-frequency trading, as suggested by a Bot Score of 70 and a very low sell percentage of 2%. Whimsical-Terminal exhibits a contrarian style with a low win rate of 29.8% and a profit factor of 0.16, indicating that losses outweigh gains on average. Their Sharpe ratio of 0.32 and zero-day max drawdown duration suggest active risk management and quick recovery from downturns. The upward equity trend supports a gradual portfolio growth, hinting at long-term resilience.

Whimsical-Terminal’s strengths lie in their volume-driven, sniper-like approach that leverages automation and contrarian market bets, potentially capturing outsized returns. However, the large negative net PnL and low win rate raise concerns about sustainability and risk exposure. The trader’s heavy reliance on bots and minimal selling could amplify losses during volatile periods, posing challenges for consistent profitability on Polymarket.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

8
Sniper
Win Rate 62%
Lottery Player
45% entries <$0.20
Contrarian
67% entries <$0.50
Diamond Hands
2% sell
Bot
Score 70/100
Whale
$11,914,523
High Roller
$22,187/day
Cool Head
DD 2%

Categories

7
🏛️ POLITICS#1,627,958$-5,708,500Vol: $91,499,519
📈 ECONOMICS#19$242,292Vol: $6,626,647
💰 FINANCE#41$83,012Vol: $3,879,409
💻 TECH#12$58,108Vol: $1,722,541
SPORTS#1,856,509$-31,428Vol: $786,302
🌤️ WEATHER#54$25,750Vol: $780,204
🎭 CULTURE#808,993$-100,266Vol: $407,466

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-5,438,329
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$105,782,273
Total Redeem
$2,176,063
Portfolio
$1,718,208
Predictions
585
total markets
Trades
60572B / 1539S
Daily Volume
$22,187
Account Age
206d
since Dec 26, 2025

Periods

#2
Today
$-25,897
Vol: $72,098
Week
$-54,838
Vol: $873,982
Month
$-92,131
Vol: $1,957,340
All Time
$-5,438,329
Vol: $105,782,273

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
69%
88W / 39L events
Realized PnL
$8,207,473
Win Rate
30%
17W / 40L
Profit Factor
0.16x
Avg Win
$37,384
Avg Loss
$-98,046

Top Winners

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?$436,984
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?$112,003
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?$20,545
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by August 31?$20,019
Iran coup attempt by June 30?$13,205
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17?$8,926
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31?$7,728
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 2?$4,767
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?$3,488
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31?$2,224

Top Losers

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$-376,472
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$-343,404
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?$-340,998
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?$-274,458
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?$-260,550
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$-247,652
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?$-245,165
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2$-241,457
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?$-207,056
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?$-194,243

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.318
Sortino
2.568
HHI
157
Diversified
EV per $1
$1.466
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
5.3%
Top-5 markets
17%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
310.8
Very active
Markets / Day
1.3
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
2:00 UTC
Median Gap
1.1m
between trades
Avg Gap
5.2m
between trades
Night Trading
31%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
4.07
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.7

Bot Detection

#6
70
BOT (automated trading)HIGH probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
MEDIUM
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
HIGH
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 68s — typical for humanSize CV 4.07 — diverse, typical for human31% at night — bot never sleeps24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 0.97 — human randomness311 trades/day — automation511 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 2:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
236.6
Heavy DCA
<=1
6 entries
<=2
8 entries
<=5
18 entries
<=10
30 entries
<=20
49 entries
<=50
81 entries
>50
175 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)44.8%
Mid (20-55c)24.2%
High (>55c)31%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 39.7%

Dreams$0
Other$-3,286,306

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
2.9
Events covered
87

Moderate coverage

<=1
40 brackets
<=2
55 brackets
<=3
60 brackets
<=4
69 brackets
<=5
75 brackets
<=8
85 brackets
>8
2 brackets

Sessions

#12
12/29/2025, 9:14:19 PM2 trades$1,1401 min
12/30/2025, 6:01:17 PM2 trades$2,4283 min
12/30/2025, 6:32:49 PM1 trades$5,8640 min
12/31/2025, 1:00:11 AM1 trades$480 min
12/31/2025, 4:24:09 PM5 trades$3,0784 min
12/31/2025, 4:34:49 PM1 trades$2010 min
12/31/2025, 5:10:39 PM2 trades$1,2400 min
12/31/2025, 9:11:31 PM2 trades$8664 min
1/1/2026, 10:11:35 PM1 trades$5,0030 min
1/2/2026, 11:08:13 AM1 trades$2,8750 min
1/4/2026, 7:50:45 PM1 trades$6,8060 min
1/4/2026, 11:00:19 PM1 trades$7,6030 min
1/4/2026, 11:34:51 PM1 trades$6370 min
1/4/2026, 11:41:19 PM4 trades$466 min
1/4/2026, 11:55:37 PM5 trades$2375 min
1/5/2026, 12:11:21 AM3 trades$2,8346 min
1/5/2026, 12:26:39 AM2 trades$811 min
1/5/2026, 12:34:05 AM1 trades$440 min
1/5/2026, 12:45:07 AM2 trades$1,5811 min
1/5/2026, 12:55:01 AM3 trades$5446 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
02-04
03-04
04-27
05-26
06-29
12-31

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
2.5% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 236.6/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 2.9 br/event