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@Broken-Idea

#2,932,75510

0x9f208e85f326f865077fffa68b32d8b0e2bc12c3

105d· 22085 markets · 25982 tradesVol: $2,738,9452026-06-28T18:12
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

10
Beginner
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 4%0/20
Profit Factor 0.50x0/15
HHI 1410/10
Profit Days 27%0/10
DD/Peak 572%0/10

Summary

Broken-Idea is a highly active trader on Polymarket, with nearly 26,000 trades across 4,825 markets over 357 days. Despite this volume, they currently hold a net loss of $31,692.31 and rank #2,932,755 globally by profit and loss, reflecting significant challenges in profitability. Their portfolio value is modest at $359.94, and their Smart Score indicates a beginner level of trading skill.

The trader predominantly focuses on weather markets, which make up 92% of their activity, suggesting a niche specialization. Their trading appears automated, as indicated by a Bot Score of 70, and they employ a hedging approach. Broken-Idea’s sell percentage is 42%, showing a willingness to exit positions regularly. However, a zero percent win rate and a profit factor of 0.00 highlight consistent losses, while a negative Sharpe ratio of -0.46 points to poor risk-adjusted returns.

Broken-Idea’s key strength lies in their automation and specialization in weather markets, which may allow for systematic trading and insights in a specific domain. However, the persistent net losses and negative performance metrics pose significant risks, indicating that their strategy or execution may require refinement to improve profitability on Polymarket.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

4
Weather Pro
91% weather
Bot
Score 70/100
Hedger
avg 4.7 brackets/event
Whale
$328,162

Categories

8
🌤️ WEATHER#286,167$-41,348Vol: $2,000,388
SPORTS#1,726,216$-1,208Vol: $302,924
🏛️ POLITICS#2,858$13,978Vol: $180,262
🎭 CULTURE#800,989$-4,650Vol: $79,016
💰 FINANCE#1,067$4,736Vol: $47,747
💻 TECH#242,669$-1,216Vol: $27,848
📈 ECONOMICS#652,842$-201Vol: $21,651
CRYPTO#1,491,746$-240Vol: $2,157

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-31,692
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$2,738,945
Total Redeem
$4
Portfolio
$360
Predictions
22085
total markets
Trades
15121B / 10861S
Daily Volume
$731
Account Age
105d
since Apr 6, 2026

Periods

#2
Today
$3,129
Vol: $15,686
Week
$12,415
Vol: $15,686
Month
$-402
Vol: $652,547
All Time
$-31,692
Vol: $2,738,945

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
9%
142W / 1402L events
Realized PnL
$105,672
Win Rate
0%
0W / 8L
Profit Factor
0x
Avg Win
$0
Avg Loss
$-281

Top Winners

Top Losers

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 8?$-641
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on May 14?$-321
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C or below on May 8?$-292
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 12?$-287
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 13?$-226
Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican $-182
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on$-176
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 15°C on May 10?$-124

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.458
Sortino
-0.480
HHI
14
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.529
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
1.1%
Top-5 markets
3.9%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
405.9
Very active
Markets / Day
75.4
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
16:00 UTC
Median Gap
1.0m
between trades
Avg Gap
6.0m
between trades
Night Trading
19%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
0.97
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
7.4

Bot Detection

#6
70
BOT (automated trading)HIGH probability

8 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
MEDIUM
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
HIGH
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
HIGH
Median gap 61s — typical for humanSize CV 0.97 — diverse, typical for human19% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.04 — human randomness406 trades/day — automation75 markets/day — mass coverage10350 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 16:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
4.9
Moderate DCA
<=1
972 entries
<=2
1522 entries
<=5
2319 entries
<=10
2747 entries
<=20
2964 entries
<=50
3069 entries
>50
7 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)1.4%
Mid (20-55c)4.8%
High (>55c)93.8%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 6.7%

Kuala Lumpur$0
Austin$0
Mexico City$0
Houston$0
Milan$0
Taipei$0
Chicago$0
Amsterdam$0
Dallas$0
Panama City$0
Karachi$0
Seoul$0
Miami$0
Singapore$0
Jakarta$0
Buenos Aires$0
Tokyo$0
Munich$0

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
4.7
Events covered
1021

Multi-bracket hedger

<=1
177 brackets
<=2
305 brackets
<=3
425 brackets
<=4
535 brackets
<=5
624 brackets
<=8
896 brackets
>8
125 brackets

Sessions

#12
4/25/2026, 1:57:18 PM3 trades$50 min
4/25/2026, 2:04:42 PM7 trades$280 min
4/25/2026, 2:22:14 PM4 trades$00 min
4/25/2026, 3:01:12 PM8 trades$62 min
4/25/2026, 4:26:50 PM7 trades$290 min
4/25/2026, 4:40:50 PM4 trades$20 min
4/25/2026, 5:20:52 PM7 trades$100 min
4/25/2026, 5:51:44 PM2 trades$152 min
4/25/2026, 6:01:02 PM4 trades$20 min
4/25/2026, 6:14:32 PM14 trades$55 min
4/25/2026, 6:26:58 PM2 trades$162 min
4/25/2026, 6:38:36 PM7 trades$130 min
4/25/2026, 6:52:06 PM4 trades$20 min
4/25/2026, 6:58:08 PM8 trades$104 min
4/25/2026, 7:08:40 PM1 trades$00 min
4/25/2026, 7:17:04 PM1 trades$10 min
4/25/2026, 7:58:30 PM5 trades$00 min
4/25/2026, 8:15:34 PM3 trades$40 min
4/25/2026, 9:15:04 PM1 trades$30 min
4/25/2026, 10:15:24 PM4 trades$00 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
04-27
05-16
06-02
06-19
07-20
03-31

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
WEATHER
91.5% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
41.8% sell
DCA Style
MODERATE
avg 4.9/mkt
Hedging
MULTI
avg 4.7 br/event