marspredict

@marspredict

#2,841,3981

0xa25436b9e3dfd91905b35dd5ea8b1a82f01e8d57

~13d· 39 markets · 236 tradesVol: $78,1622026-09-10 08:41:00
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

1
Beginner
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

24% (9/38)0/20
0.04x (win $141 / loss $3,732)0/15
Annualised Sharpe -10.3240/15
Sortino -9.0830/10
$-0.7633 per $1 invested0/10
HHI 2344 (38 markets)0.8/10
1/11 profitable days (9%)0/10
Max DD 0% of peak ($3,592 / $0)0/10

Categories

4
⚽ SPORTS#115,593$114Vol: $38,912
₿ CRYPTO#1,439,348$-58Vol: $24,023
🌤️ WEATHER#297,359$-185Vol: $8,078
💰 FINANCE#650,289$-187Vol: $7,148

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-316
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$78,162
Total Redeem
$0
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
39
total markets
Trades
79B / 157S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~13d

Periods

#2
Today
$27
Vol: $0
Week
$-148
Vol: $1,819
Month
$-148
Vol: $1,819
All Time
$-316
Vol: $78,162

PnL Analysis

#3

Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology

Win Rate (events)
24%
9W / 29L events
Realized PnL
$-216
Win Rate
24%
9W / 29L
Profit Factor
0.04x
Avg Win
$16
Avg Loss
$-133

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $110 (0.5087125776253592% of PnL)

Top Winners

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET$80
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET$20
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET$10
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET$8
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8?$7
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET$7
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET$7
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET$1
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET$1

Top Losers

Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?$-1,900
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $78 in June?$-634
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June?$-554
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $64 in July?$-168
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June?$-92
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 8-14?$-69
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 4?$-33
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14?$-32
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET$-29
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET$-25

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.515
Sortino
-0.496
HHI
7450
Concentrated
EV per $1
$-0.515
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
74.3%
Top-5 markets
137.4%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
2.4
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.4
Active Hours
16/24
Extended
Peak Hour
23:00 UTC
Median Gap
4.1m
between trades
Avg Gap
1.6h
between trades
Night Trading
9%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
2.21
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
38
Avg Duration
2 min
Avg Trades / Session
6.2

Bot Detection

#6
0
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
MEDIUM
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 247s — normal for humanCV 2.21 — diverse sizes (human-like)9% night trades — normal pattern16/24 hours — normal schedule2 trades/day — normal0.4 markets/day — normal33% maker — normal mix

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 23:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
7.21
Active DCA

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)12.7%
Mid (20-55c)31.6%
High (>55c)55.7%

Sessions

#12
7/16/2026, 6:44:46 PM10 trades$3,4979 min
6/23/2026, 2:31:34 PM2 trades$1,6590 min
6/8/2026, 1:28:25 AM14 trades$1,3374 min
9/8/2026, 6:52:09 AM15 trades$1,2511 min
6/7/2026, 10:12:37 PM18 trades$1,1735 min
6/22/2026, 5:00:32 PM17 trades$9540 min
7/16/2026, 11:59:43 PM7 trades$7270 min
6/3/2026, 10:54:21 PM8 trades$5455 min
7/16/2026, 11:12:47 PM6 trades$5210 min
6/3/2026, 11:11:04 PM10 trades$5205 min
6/7/2026, 7:29:48 PM5 trades$5141 min
6/3/2026, 10:38:30 PM5 trades$3604 min
6/8/2026, 11:40:09 AM2 trades$3380 min
6/8/2026, 3:07:01 AM3 trades$3170 min
6/8/2026, 6:51:10 PM6 trades$1870 min
6/8/2026, 1:31:39 PM23 trades$13112 min
6/3/2026, 9:41:39 PM6 trades$1053 min
6/9/2026, 1:31:16 PM2 trades$710 min
6/9/2026, 11:34:03 PM10 trades$699 min
7/15/2026, 10:05:10 PM4 trades$571 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
06-03
06-05
06-07
06-08
06-09
06-10
06-23
07-11
07-15
07-16
07-17

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
66.5% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 7.21/mkt
Entry Bias
HIGH $
L12.7 / M31.6 / H55.7