risk-manager

@risk-manager

#74642

0xa61ef8773ec2e821962306ca87d4b57e39ff0abd

~551d· 393 markets · 793062 tradesVol: $713,204,9692026-08-02 00:50:35
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

42
Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

46% (135/293)8/20
1.16x (win $66,575 / loss $57,505)4.5/15
Annualised Sharpe 0.4308.1/15
Sortino 0.6326.3/10
$+0.0352 per $1 invested1.8/10
HHI 480 (293 markets)10/10
87/198 profitable days (44%)3.5/10
Max DD 110% of peak ($19,249 / $17,495)0/10

Badges

7
Profitable
PnL $+267,460
Lottery Player
84% entries < $0.20
Diamond Hands
1% sells
DCA Master
Avg 33.6 entries/market
Whale
$257,681 invested
Win Streak
8 wins in a row
🦉Night Owl
24/24 hours active

Categories

9
📈 ECONOMICS#318$23,790Vol: $255,212,088
⚽ SPORTS#1,519$44,060Vol: $200,206,209
🏛️ POLITICS#327$156,909Vol: $193,664,627
₿ CRYPTO#3,153$14,833Vol: $49,248,504
🎭 CULTURE#267$30,282Vol: $13,257,314
💰 FINANCE#913$5,945Vol: $852,037
🌤️ WEATHER#298,722$-13,399Vol: $188,508
💻 TECH#1,857$653Vol: $95,650
📢 MENTIONS#7,144$76Vol: $2,677

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$267,491
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$713,204,969
Total Redeem
$10,150
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
393
total markets
Trades
11158B / 4585S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~551d

Periods

#2
Today
$-300
Vol: $58,326
Week
$-4,256
Vol: $5,888,432
Month
$-300
Vol: $58,326
All Time
$267,491
Vol: $713,204,969

PnL Analysis

#3

Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology

Win Rate (events)
72%
470W / 187L events
Realized PnL
$267,460
Win Rate
72%
470W / 187L
Profit Factor
1.16x
Avg Win
$493
Avg Loss
$-366

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $32,597 (0.1218760981782733% of PnL)

Top Winners

US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?$14,997
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5)$12,149
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting?$5,451
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?$4,908
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?$4,015
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?$2,733
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?$2,161
Seahawks vs. Patriots$1,690
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion?$1,626
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?$1,223

Top Losers

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?$-14,852
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?$-11,130
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?$-5,340
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?$-4,224
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?$-3,183
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?$-2,159
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?$-2,001
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?$-1,207
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March?$-1,184
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?$-1,000

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.022
Sortino
0.025
HHI
470
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.045
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
16.7%
Top-5 markets
37.7%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
1279.1
Very active
Markets / Day
0.6
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
7:00 UTC
Median Gap
18.2m
between trades
Avg Gap
48.9m
between trades
Night Trading
1%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
16.50
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.6

Bot Detection

#6
45
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
HIGH
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 1094s — normal for humanCV 16.50 — diverse sizes (human-like)1% night trades — normal pattern24/24 hours — around the clock1279 trades/day — automation0.6 markets/day — normal2% maker — normal mix

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 7:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
33.56
Heavy DCA

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)83.9%
Mid (20-55c)5.8%
High (>55c)10.3%

Sessions

#12
9/30/2025, 5:59:27 PM1 trades$21,4590 min
12/1/2025, 4:31:22 AM3 trades$18,4180 min
10/14/2025, 6:03:27 PM2 trades$17,4500 min
11/9/2025, 5:19:11 AM1 trades$14,5160 min
1/8/2026, 12:34:43 PM6 trades$13,8446 min
2/6/2026, 1:55:37 PM3 trades$10,1582 min
11/13/2025, 5:02:30 AM1 trades$9,9200 min
11/7/2025, 9:12:17 AM3 trades$9,7804 min
11/5/2025, 2:53:43 PM1 trades$8,6000 min
1/6/2026, 10:14:21 PM2 trades$8,4260 min
11/18/2025, 9:40:45 AM1 trades$8,2500 min
2/17/2026, 1:24:51 PM1 trades$6,9660 min
11/16/2025, 11:51:31 PM1 trades$5,9820 min
12/9/2025, 7:34:00 PM1 trades$4,9200 min
11/6/2025, 9:11:23 AM1 trades$4,8000 min
9/16/2025, 4:06:24 AM1 trades$4,6100 min
9/15/2025, 3:26:54 AM1 trades$4,5560 min
1/14/2026, 5:05:26 PM2 trades$4,4450 min
8/31/2025, 10:25:12 PM1 trades$4,3500 min
1/8/2026, 2:20:09 AM1 trades$4,3460 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
11-20
04-29
08-22
11-12
01-24
04-19

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Max drawdown: 88 days (not recovered)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
0.6% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 33.56/mkt
Entry Bias
LOW $
L83.9 / M5.8 / H10.3