Polydata

@Nippy-Legume

#3,031,85924

0xa9fe4929d4ea1525ca03bd0ff68ea1fbf9e7f135

259d· 106 markets · 4871 tradesVol: $5,658,7972026-07-17T22:38
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

24
Below Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 50%10/20
Profit Factor 0.53x0/15
HHI 43610/10
Profit Days 48%4/10
DD/Peak 228%0/10

Summary

Nippy-Legume is a moderately active trader on Polymarket, with nearly 5,000 trades across 105 markets over 397 days. Despite a large total volume of $5.6 million, their net PnL stands at a significant loss of $131,850, placing them at rank #3,031,859 on the global PnL leaderboard. Their Smart Score is below average at 24/100, reflecting challenges in consistently generating positive returns.

This trader appears to favor a contrarian and dollar-cost averaging (DCA) approach, as indicated by badges like "Contrarian" and "DCA Master." Their win rate is just above 50% with a profit factor of 0.51, suggesting frequent small wins but larger losses on losing trades. Nippy-Legume shows a preference for varied markets but does not engage in weather markets, with a moderate sell percentage of 35%. The Sharpe ratio of -0.19 and negative equity trend imply a risk profile that has not been well managed over time.

Nippy-Legume’s strengths include a high trading volume and the ability to maintain activity across many markets, demonstrating dedication and experience. However, the persistent negative returns and low Smart and Bot Scores highlight significant risks, such as poor risk management or suboptimal timing. The declining portfolio value and negative Sharpe ratio suggest that without adjustments, Nippy-Legume may continue to experience losses on Polymarket.

Badges

6
Lottery Player
38% entries <$0.20
Contrarian
81% entries <$0.50
DCA Master
avg 30.2 entries/market
Win Streak
6 wins in a row
Whale
$913,351
High Roller
$2,301/day

Categories

6
🏛️ POLITICS#1,629,207$-111,212Vol: $3,641,526
CRYPTO#1,650,780$-27,290Vol: $1,340,213
📈 ECONOMICS#243$28,281Vol: $385,772
💰 FINANCE#648,450$-15,538Vol: $228,145
🎭 CULTURE#564,431$-2Vol: $38,333
SPORTS#1,752,065$-325Vol: $1,226

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-131,850
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$5,658,797
Total Redeem
$21
Portfolio
$56,327
Predictions
106
total markets
Trades
3173B / 1698S
Daily Volume
$2,301
Account Age
259d
since Nov 3, 2025

Periods

#2
Today
$4,408
Vol: $11,811
Week
$12,542
Vol: $95,008
Month
$21,747
Vol: $112,793
All Time
$-131,850
Vol: $5,658,797

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
46%
27W / 32L events
Realized PnL
$-84,020
Win Rate
52%
43W / 40L
Profit Factor
0.51x
Avg Win
$2,160
Avg Loss
$-4,557

Top Winners

US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?$25,128
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?$10,550
Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 in November?$10,504
US forces enter Iran by April 30?$6,951
Will Ethereum dip to $3,000 in November?$5,081
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?$4,119
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30?$3,688
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?$3,454
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?$3,322
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?$3,163

Top Losers

Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2025?$-35,725
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?$-23,542
Will Bitcoin dip to $95,000 in November?$-18,700
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 by December 31, 2025?$-16,397
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?$-15,174
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2025?$-13,097
Will US or Israel strike Iran by December 31, 2026?$-10,367
Will Ethereum dip to $3,400 in November?$-9,992
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 November 24-30?$-5,121
Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026?$-4,648

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.195
Sortino
-0.194
HHI
436
Diversified
EV per $1
$-1.267
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
15.2%
Top-5 markets
33.6%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
19.0
Active
Markets / Day
0.4
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
3:00 UTC
Median Gap
3.1m
between trades
Avg Gap
40.5m
between trades
Night Trading
34%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
3.02
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
2 min
Avg Trades / Session
3.4

Bot Detection

#6
35
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 186s — typical for humanSize CV 3.03 — diverse, typical for human34% at night — bot never sleeps24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.00 — human randomness19 trades/day — very active

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 3:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
30.2
Heavy DCA
<=1
24 entries
<=2
31 entries
<=5
47 entries
<=10
60 entries
<=20
74 entries
<=50
88 entries
>50
17 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)38.4%
Mid (20-55c)48.6%
High (>55c)12.9%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 53.9%

Other$-89,413

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.8
Events covered
59

Single bracket

<=1
37 brackets
<=2
46 brackets
<=3
53 brackets
<=4
56 brackets
<=5
57 brackets
<=8
59 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
11/3/2025, 3:40:35 AM2 trades$5,1301 min
11/3/2025, 3:56:59 AM1 trades$2,3200 min
11/3/2025, 4:40:21 AM1 trades$800 min
11/3/2025, 5:14:49 AM1 trades$2,4620 min
11/8/2025, 12:51:09 AM2 trades$1,9720 min
11/8/2025, 12:56:45 AM14 trades$8,52114 min
11/8/2025, 1:17:47 AM4 trades$4,7745 min
11/8/2025, 1:29:25 AM3 trades$230 min
11/8/2025, 1:39:03 AM1 trades$1,8810 min
11/8/2025, 1:53:39 AM4 trades$1,7586 min
11/8/2025, 2:12:17 AM1 trades$8600 min
11/8/2025, 2:29:19 AM1 trades$50 min
11/8/2025, 2:42:39 AM1 trades$30 min
11/8/2025, 2:57:11 AM1 trades$50 min
11/8/2025, 3:17:31 AM1 trades$10 min
11/8/2025, 4:39:43 AM2 trades$1933 min
11/8/2025, 5:09:11 AM5 trades$1,8693 min
11/8/2025, 5:27:43 AM2 trades$2,1332 min
11/8/2025, 5:38:25 AM1 trades$7800 min
11/8/2025, 5:53:15 AM1 trades$90 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
12-31
04-07
05-31
07-09
07-20
08-01
01-01

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
34.9% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 30.2/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.8 br/event