@btc-prediction

#2,902,52016

0xaa325c33c7e139e6f2bfda66855cd066015199a6

~109d· 1292 markets · 3646 tradesVol: $305,7882026-08-26 10:43:59
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

16
Beginner
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

40% (521/1292)5.2/20
0.73x (win $6,515 / loss $8,935)0/15
Annualised Sharpe -4.1620/15
Sortino -4.3160/10
$-0.1305 per $1 invested0/10
HHI 80 (1292 markets)10/10
36/107 profitable days (34%)0.9/10
Max DD 2290% of peak ($2,631 / $115)0/10

Badges

4
Lottery Player
40% entries < $0.20
Win Streak
9 wins in a row
🦉Night Owl
24/24 hours active
🏗️Market Maker
77% maker orders

Categories

2
₿ CRYPTO#99,469$96Vol: $214,214
⚽ SPORTS#1,821,000$-629Vol: $90,194

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-576
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$305,788
Total Redeem
$0
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
1292
total markets
Trades
2717B / 929S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~109d

Periods

#2
Today
$10
Vol: $711
Week
$67
Vol: $3,146
Month
$-128
Vol: $84,319
All Time
$-576
Vol: $305,788

PnL Analysis

#3

Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology

Win Rate (events)
40%
521W / 771L events
Realized PnL
$-613
Win Rate
40%
521W / 771L
Profit Factor
0.73x
Avg Win
$13
Avg Loss
$-12

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $477 (0.7781782010305917% of PnL)

Top Winners

Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5$181
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 2PM ET$154
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET$142
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5$139
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$134
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5$133
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET$122
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET$120
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 3PM ET$116
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 3PM ET$101

Top Losers

Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5$-710
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana?$-400
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5$-290
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5$-280
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$-278
Brazil vs. Norway: Brazil O/U 5.5 Corners$-209
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5$-200
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5$-200
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5$-156
Ethereum above $3,400 on February 7?$-149

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.217
Sortino
-0.203
HHI
77
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.129
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
3.4%
Top-5 markets
13%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
6.4
Moderate
Markets / Day
2.3
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
7:00 UTC
Median Gap
6.7m
between trades
Avg Gap
49.3m
between trades
Night Trading
26%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
3.04
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
4 min
Avg Trades / Session
9.8

Bot Detection

#6
35
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 401s — normal for humanCV 3.04 — diverse sizes (human-like)26% night trades — never sleeps24/24 hours — around the clock6 trades/day — normal2.3 markets/day — normal77% maker — frequent liquidity provider

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 7:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
2.84
Moderate DCA

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)40.3%
Mid (20-55c)47.2%
High (>55c)12.5%

Sessions

#12
6/22/2026, 7:01:58 PM6 trades$1,0464 min
6/23/2026, 12:12:01 AM9 trades$1,0062 min
6/23/2026, 4:34:19 AM14 trades$9295 min
6/22/2026, 1:28:01 AM24 trades$6633 min
6/21/2026, 10:47:17 PM9 trades$4836 min
6/26/2026, 1:59:32 AM17 trades$4694 min
6/23/2026, 3:39:14 AM4 trades$4290 min
7/13/2026, 5:48:41 AM3 trades$4180 min
6/21/2026, 10:23:55 PM10 trades$4033 min
6/22/2026, 5:39:13 PM11 trades$3886 min
5/4/2026, 5:59:28 AM71 trades$35640 min
6/23/2026, 6:25:04 PM2 trades$3390 min
6/23/2026, 12:23:04 AM10 trades$3106 min
6/26/2026, 12:18:25 AM5 trades$3104 min
6/23/2026, 8:22:14 PM4 trades$3101 min
6/23/2026, 5:40:47 PM2 trades$2980 min
6/22/2026, 2:21:41 AM5 trades$2872 min
6/23/2026, 2:26:55 AM2 trades$2670 min
6/24/2026, 12:52:53 AM8 trades$2511 min
6/21/2026, 5:15:23 PM8 trades$2482 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-31
06-27
07-14
06-14
07-09
07-31
08-21

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Max drawdown: 389 days (not recovered)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
25.5% sell
DCA Style
MODERATE
avg 2.84/mkt
Entry Bias
LOW $
L40.3 / M47.2 / H12.5