StadoBaranok

@StadoBaranok

#1,271,90838

0xb0558b396b0fe1b583e1bc757b6227a43f9c7a62

~87d· 176 markets · 246 tradesVol: $16,0962026-09-11 22:06:53
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

38
Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

70% (122/175)19.9/20
0.94x (win $10 / loss $11)1.7/15
Annualised Sharpe -0.2840/15
Sortino -0.4040/10
$-0.0001 per $1 invested0/10
HHI 1113 (175 markets)6.9/10
57/72 profitable days (79%)10/10
Max DD 122% of peak ($8 / $6)0/10

Badges

4
Sniper
Win rate 70%
Consistent
57/72 profitable days
Win Streak
10 wins in a row
🦉Night Owl
22/24 hours active

Categories

5
🎭 CULTURE#102,982$4Vol: $6,920
📈 ECONOMICS#566,751$-4Vol: $5,046
CRYPTO#899,027$-1Vol: $3,300
🏛️ POLITICS#347,346$1Vol: $824
💻 TECH#114,734$0Vol: $6

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-1
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$16,096
Total Redeem
$17
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
176
total markets
Trades
186B / 60S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~87d

Periods

#2
Today
$1
Vol: $0
Week
$1
Vol: $6
Month
$1
Vol: $11
All Time
$-1
Vol: $16,096

PnL Analysis

#3

Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology

Win Rate (events)
70%
122W / 53L events
Realized PnL
$-1
Win Rate
70%
122W / 53L
Profit Factor
0.94x
Avg Win
$0
Avg Loss
$-1

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $5 (6.063291139240506% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will Elon tweet less than 150 times June 6–13?$4
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated?$1
Will Elon tweet less than 100 times May 16–23?$1
Bitcoin above $90,000 on November 22?$1
Will Elon tweet less than 100 times June 20–27?$0
Will Elon tweet less than 90 times July 25–August 1?$0
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2025 meeting?$0
Will Elon tweet less than 100 times May 9–16?$0
Election certified on January 6?$0
Will Elon tweet less than 90 times July 4–11?$0

Top Losers

Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting?$-2
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025?$-2
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by January 31, 2025?$-2
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?$-2
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from October 7 to October 14, 2025?$-1
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting?$-1
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in October?$-1
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October?$-0
Will Biden finish his term?$-0
Will SPD win the most seats in the next German election?$-0

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.015
Sortino
-0.013
HHI
901
Moderate
EV per $1
$-0.000
Kelly %
58.1%
Half-Kelly
29.1%
Top-1 market
19.9%
Top-5 markets
59.7%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
0.4
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.3
Active Hours
22/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
15:00 UTC
Median Gap
38s
between trades
Avg Gap
1.6h
between trades
Night Trading
5%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
2.73
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
2.0

Bot Detection

#6
15
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
HIGH
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 38s — normal for humanCV 2.73 — diverse sizes (human-like)5% night trades — normal pattern22/24 hours — around the clock0 trades/day — normal0.3 markets/day — normal13% maker — normal mix

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 15:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
1.47
Single entry

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)1.1%
Mid (20-55c)0%
High (>55c)98.9%

Sessions

#12
10/8/2025, 5:25:56 AM2 trades$5671 min
10/17/2025, 4:50:03 PM2 trades$5410 min
10/20/2025, 5:43:13 PM2 trades$5412 min
10/11/2025, 8:37:08 AM1 trades$5100 min
10/11/2025, 1:27:24 PM1 trades$5100 min
10/8/2025, 10:06:32 AM1 trades$5090 min
10/11/2025, 10:30:10 AM1 trades$5090 min
10/11/2025, 4:44:50 PM1 trades$5090 min
10/9/2025, 4:30:42 AM1 trades$5080 min
10/10/2025, 7:19:26 AM1 trades$5070 min
10/24/2025, 12:42:09 PM3 trades$5076 min
10/12/2025, 8:39:26 AM1 trades$5030 min
10/21/2025, 4:32:09 PM1 trades$5020 min
10/21/2025, 5:41:29 PM1 trades$5020 min
10/24/2025, 1:33:15 PM1 trades$5020 min
10/12/2025, 10:09:04 AM1 trades$5010 min
10/21/2025, 7:03:11 AM1 trades$5010 min
10/17/2025, 6:08:47 PM1 trades$5000 min
10/6/2025, 12:31:05 PM1 trades$4890 min
10/6/2025, 1:38:07 PM1 trades$4880 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
11-22
03-25
06-07
08-26
11-19
03-12

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Max drawdown: 33 days (not recovered)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
24.4% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 1.47/mkt
Entry Bias
HIGH $
L1.1 / M0 / H98.9