moth-man

@moth-man

#2,880,09230

0xb518c46a53e40bf5d30e3791f84adbaa5534333f

~40d· 98 markets · 282 tradesVol: $6,9012026-08-06 07:07:13
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

30
Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

68% (51/75)19/20
0.09x (win $209 / loss $2,311)0/15
Annualised Sharpe -6.4090/15
Sortino -6.0940/10
$-0.6746 per $1 invested0/10
HHI 1630 (75 markets)4.3/10
15/26 profitable days (58%)6.9/10
Max DD 1823% of peak ($2,224 / $122)0/10

Badges

3
Sniper
Win rate 68%
Win Streak
10 wins in a row
🦉Night Owl
22/24 hours active

Categories

7
🏛️ POLITICS#1,604,465$-633Vol: $3,632
🎭 CULTURE#83,150$6Vol: $2,930
⚽ SPORTS#397,525$2Vol: $242
💰 FINANCE#129,760$1Vol: $62
₿ CRYPTO#611,834$0Vol: $22
📈 ECONOMICS#521,545$-2Vol: $4
📢 MENTIONS#96,050$-2Vol: $2

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-629
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$6,901
Total Redeem
$178
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
98
total markets
Trades
193B / 89S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~40d

Periods

#2
Today
$4
Vol: $0
Week
$-7
Vol: $1,683
Month
$-9
Vol: $1,683
All Time
$-629
Vol: $6,901

PnL Analysis

#3

Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology

Win Rate (events)
68%
51W / 24L events
Realized PnL
$-629
Win Rate
68%
51W / 24L
Profit Factor
0.09x
Avg Win
$4
Avg Loss
$-96

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $140 (0.22338191306561447% of PnL)

Top Winners

US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?$77
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?$50
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?$13
US forces enter Iran by December 31?$10
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?$7
Will Sean Strickland become UFC champion in 2026?$7
Will "One Battle After Another" win Best Film at the 2026 BAFTA Awards?$7
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card)$6
Will Sean Penn win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?$5
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?$3

Top Losers

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?$-799
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?$-796
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?$-616
Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 2026 BAFTA Awards?$-20
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 2026 BAFTA Awards?$-20
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?$-16
Will Timothée Chalamet win Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role at the 2026 SAG Awards?$-10
Will One Battle After Another win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?$-5
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?$-4
Will "Marty Supreme" win exactly 1 award at the Oscars?$-4

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.329
Sortino
-0.234
HHI
2701
Concentrated
EV per $1
$-0.477
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
39.6%
Top-5 markets
98.9%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
1.7
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.6
Active Hours
22/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
22:00 UTC
Median Gap
5.3m
between trades
Avg Gap
2.3h
between trades
Night Trading
31%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
2.15
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
2 min
Avg Trades / Session
3.6

Bot Detection

#6
30
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 316s — normal for humanCV 2.15 — diverse sizes (human-like)31% night trades — never sleeps22/24 hours — around the clock2 trades/day — normal0.6 markets/day — normal15% maker — normal mix

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 22:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
4.09
Moderate DCA

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)9.3%
Mid (20-55c)11.9%
High (>55c)78.8%

Sessions

#12
3/24/2026, 2:04:33 AM21 trades$42924 min
4/2/2026, 9:20:37 PM12 trades$4246 min
3/28/2026, 9:40:17 AM2 trades$3910 min
3/29/2026, 4:18:12 AM2 trades$3501 min
8/5/2026, 10:07:36 AM10 trades$3124 min
3/28/2026, 8:27:45 AM2 trades$2310 min
4/6/2026, 10:49:43 AM2 trades$2200 min
4/5/2026, 3:52:35 AM4 trades$2192 min
4/5/2026, 11:54:37 AM4 trades$2024 min
3/30/2026, 9:13:06 AM1 trades$1550 min
4/7/2026, 10:49:15 PM16 trades$1203 min
3/29/2026, 4:47:48 PM5 trades$1138 min
4/7/2026, 10:57:35 PM10 trades$1026 min
3/18/2026, 4:48:01 AM2 trades$1013 min
2/21/2026, 10:10:00 AM1 trades$1000 min
2/21/2026, 1:34:46 PM1 trades$1000 min
2/21/2026, 1:17:32 PM4 trades$904 min
3/24/2026, 2:36:07 AM6 trades$784 min
8/3/2026, 12:09:45 PM3 trades$700 min
3/31/2026, 8:17:23 PM4 trades$690 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
02-21
03-02
03-13
03-19
03-24
04-01
04-07

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Max drawdown: 6 days (not recovered)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
31.6% sell
DCA Style
MODERATE
avg 4.09/mkt
Entry Bias
HIGH $
L9.3 / M11.9 / H78.8