Polydata
Trusting-Bungalow

@Trusting-Bungalow

#38859

0xc6dd722558dbfbd8fa780efcbe819ed8c6604b9f

434d· 771 markets · 18757 tradesVol: $63,037,2962026-07-20T15:42
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

59
Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 96%20/20
Profit Factor 504.11x15/15
EV $+2.76410/10
HHI 6449/10
Profit Days 47%4/10
DD/Peak 98634%0/10

Summary

Trusting-Bungalow is a moderately active trader on Polymarket, ranked #388 on the global PnL leaderboard. Over 757 days, they have executed 18,757 trades across 301 markets, accumulating a net profit of $512,669.32 on a total volume exceeding $63 million. Their portfolio value currently stands at $491,651.91, reflecting a sizable but slowly declining equity trend.

This trader prefers a diverse market selection, avoiding weather-related markets entirely. Trusting-Bungalow exhibits a relatively conservative approach with a 31% sell rate and a win rate of 61.7%, indicating careful position management. However, the Sharpe ratio of -0.17 and low profit factor suggest that returns have come with volatility and risk. The "Sniper" and "DCA Master" badges imply a strategy focused on precise entries and dollar-cost averaging, favoring consistent gains over high-risk bets. Activity patterns suggest steady engagement without heavy reliance on automated bots.

Key strengths for Trusting-Bungalow include a strong win rate and proven profitability, supported by a solid trading volume and good Smart Score. Potential concerns arise from the negative Sharpe ratio and the downward equity trend, indicating vulnerability to market fluctuations. Their relatively low Bot Score confirms human-driven decisions, which may limit scalability but enhance adaptability. Overall, Trusting-Bungalow demonstrates disciplined trading on Polymarket with room to optimize risk management.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

6
Sniper
Win Rate 96%
Profitable
PnL $+512,669
DCA Master
avg 43.2 entries/market
Win Streak
19 wins in a row
Whale
$24,232,638
High Roller
$32,011/day

Categories

9
🏛️ POLITICS#253$197,598Vol: $37,692,308
🎭 CULTURE#808,321$-4,644Vol: $6,585,943
📈 ECONOMICS#47$121,812Vol: $6,022,495
💻 TECH#259$7,112Vol: $4,244,504
💰 FINANCE#41$86,173Vol: $3,337,335
CRYPTO#496$72,428Vol: $2,425,288
SPORTS#4,817$11,130Vol: $1,754,548
📢 MENTIONS#174$10,634Vol: $465,565
🌤️ WEATHER#669$2,900Vol: $414,359

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$512,669
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$63,037,296
Total Redeem
$1,764,315
Portfolio
$491,652
Predictions
771
total markets
Trades
12973B / 5784S
Daily Volume
$32,011
Account Age
434d
since May 12, 2025

Periods

#2
Today
$1,325
Vol: $129,513
Week
$1,325
Vol: $301,150
Month
$1,173
Vol: $2,149,103
All Time
$512,669
Vol: $63,037,296

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
95%
194W / 11L events
Realized PnL
$1,300,401
Win Rate
62%
161W / 100L
Profit Factor
0.09x
Avg Win
$5,739
Avg Loss
$-105,064

Top Winners

US government shutdown Saturday?$96,800
US forces enter Iran by April 30?$83,788
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$75,032
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?$53,174
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$46,091
Claude 4.8 released by May 31?$36,472
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?$27,135
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?$22,682
Xi Jinping out in 2025?$18,157
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential elect$15,956

Top Losers

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?$-5,636,326
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?$-456,699
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?$-431,430
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?$-424,779
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?$-279,871
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31?$-234,341
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?$-228,865
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?$-175,920
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?$-163,907
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?$-156,217

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.169
Sortino
-0.123
HHI
644
Moderate
EV per $1
$2.764
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
23.3%
Top-5 markets
36.4%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
43.9
Active
Markets / Day
0.7
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
20:00 UTC
Median Gap
50s
between trades
Avg Gap
26.5m
between trades
Night Trading
25%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
5.60
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
2.6

Bot Detection

#6
35
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
MEDIUM
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
MEDIUM
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 50s — typical for humanSize CV 5.60 — diverse, typical for human25% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.10 — human randomness44 trades/day — suspiciously high

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 20:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
43.2
Heavy DCA
<=1
43 entries
<=2
59 entries
<=5
88 entries
<=10
120 entries
<=20
169 entries
<=50
229 entries
>50
71 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)2.9%
Mid (20-55c)9%
High (>55c)88.1%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 58.2%

Los Angeles$17,945
Lebanon$1,632
New York City$-136,250
Other$-9,465,674

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.4
Events covered
218

Single bracket

<=1
171 brackets
<=2
200 brackets
<=3
211 brackets
<=4
213 brackets
<=5
216 brackets
<=8
217 brackets
>8
1 brackets

Sessions

#12
5/18/2025, 6:54:11 PM3 trades$9,7000 min
5/18/2025, 7:11:49 PM20 trades$28,1394 min
5/18/2025, 7:28:58 PM1 trades$3,8400 min
5/18/2025, 8:09:16 PM1 trades$9,0000 min
5/18/2025, 9:20:03 PM1 trades$5630 min
5/18/2025, 9:36:31 PM20 trades$21,0809 min
5/18/2025, 10:02:51 PM1 trades$12,8390 min
5/18/2025, 10:14:21 PM1 trades$9,9400 min
5/18/2025, 11:16:13 PM3 trades$9,9805 min
5/18/2025, 11:58:47 PM1 trades$19,9800 min
6/14/2025, 6:11:40 AM1 trades$830 min
6/14/2025, 7:02:39 AM3 trades$440 min
6/22/2025, 7:21:16 AM2 trades$530 min
6/22/2025, 10:43:50 AM4 trades$4442 min
6/22/2025, 12:25:18 PM1 trades$90 min
6/22/2025, 4:24:09 PM1 trades$130 min
6/22/2025, 6:04:52 PM1 trades$50 min
6/22/2025, 6:54:43 PM1 trades$150 min
6/22/2025, 10:22:31 PM1 trades$260 min
6/23/2025, 12:13:39 AM1 trades$290 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
10-31
01-17
04-12
05-27
06-26
10-10

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
30.8% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 43.2/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.4 br/event