Crayon

@Crayon

#2,977,16221

0xc95cd16e8c0edcc9090b13030d3e492163db5e0b

~230d· 211 markets · 4914 tradesVol: $197,217 @crayonxyz2026-08-02 05:21:02
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

21
Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

49% (80/162)9.7/20
0.89x (win $3,087 / loss $3,482)1.1/15
Annualised Sharpe -0.3660/15
Sortino -0.4820/10
$-0.0048 per $1 invested0/10
HHI 1181 (162 markets)6.6/10
32/75 profitable days (43%)3.2/10
Max DD 0% of peak ($2,346 / $0)0/10

Badges

4
DCA Master
Avg 12.7 entries/market
Whale
$82,305 invested
Win Streak
9 wins in a row
🦉Night Owl
24/24 hours active

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-1,692
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$197,217
Total Redeem
$0
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
211
total markets
Trades
2813B / 2101S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~230d

PnL Analysis

#3

Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology

Win Rate (events)
49%
80W / 82L events
Realized PnL
$-1,692
Win Rate
49%
80W / 82L
Profit Factor
0.89x
Avg Win
$39
Avg Loss
$-45

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $2,339 (1.3825601740199556% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30?$1,375
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30?$576
Will another country recognize Somaliland by June 30?$388
Tariff increase on Canada in effect by June 30?$111
Any of the stolen KitKats recovered by April 5?$92
U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by June 30, 2026?$92
Will Russia enter Dobropillia by May 31?$55
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?$54
Insurrection Act invoked by June 30?$42
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? $40

Top Losers

Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31?$-1,605
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?$-618
Ranger FDV above $40M one day after launch?$-369
Nothing Ever Happens: January$-152
US government shutdown Saturday?$-141
Another critical Cloudflare incident by February 28?$-100
Ranger FDV above $30M one day after launch?$-67
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Nicolás Maduro by May 31, 2026?$-52
Over $15M committed to the Ranger public sale?$-48
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?$-30

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.019
Sortino
-0.019
HHI
304
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.009
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
15.3%
Top-5 markets
28.8%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
4.0
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.2
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
6:00 UTC
Median Gap
12.9m
between trades
Avg Gap
1.3h
between trades
Night Trading
25%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
2.30
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
6 min
Avg Trades / Session
11.1

Bot Detection

#6
20
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 772s — normal for humanCV 2.30 — diverse sizes (human-like)25% night trades — unusual hours24/24 hours — around the clock4 trades/day — normal0.2 markets/day — normal63% maker — normal mix

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 6:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
12.72
Heavy DCA

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)6.3%
Mid (20-55c)11.6%
High (>55c)82%

Sessions

#12
2/26/2026, 6:01:16 PM2 trades$3,5602 min
3/7/2026, 8:36:47 AM2 trades$2,0102 min
2/3/2026, 4:22:20 AM4 trades$1,3792 min
1/21/2026, 8:47:18 AM13 trades$1,3034 min
5/10/2026, 2:24:01 PM27 trades$1,11918 min
6/23/2026, 6:38:59 PM39 trades$1,07822 min
3/1/2026, 8:32:03 AM3 trades$1,0564 min
1/29/2026, 6:40:34 AM10 trades$1,0164 min
1/26/2026, 4:39:24 AM5 trades$1,0053 min
7/12/2026, 4:42:43 AM56 trades$91016 min
1/10/2026, 3:28:46 AM54 trades$90021 min
1/29/2026, 6:33:38 PM2 trades$8840 min
5/10/2026, 2:49:53 PM26 trades$88315 min
2/13/2026, 6:42:49 AM1 trades$8230 min
1/25/2026, 4:40:54 AM4 trades$8133 min
2/26/2026, 6:19:00 AM2 trades$8091 min
1/26/2026, 5:37:40 AM4 trades$8023 min
2/2/2026, 7:11:10 AM8 trades$8006 min
3/13/2026, 9:26:37 AM3 trades$7782 min
2/20/2026, 11:11:56 PM1 trades$7640 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
03-29
07-16
12-12
01-15
02-02
03-07
06-13

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
42.8% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 12.72/mkt
Entry Bias
HIGH $
L6.3 / M11.6 / H82