@larkspur

#2,48092

0xcbc5d8509552a47be7a2386311e43a05cee3e175

~175d· 175 markets · 2063 tradesVol: $1,906,499 @roberto_denero2026-08-23 15:27:26
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

92
Elite
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

60% (100/168)14.8/20
9.58x (win $259,543 / loss $27,090)15/15
Annualised Sharpe 3.92615/15
Sortino 64.09810/10
$+0.2355 per $1 invested10/10
HHI 641 (168 markets)9.3/10
59/96 profitable days (61%)7.9/10
Max DD 5% of peak ($11,304 / $232,453)10/10

Badges

8
Profitable
PnL $+77,470
DCA Master
Avg 15.1 entries/market
Whale
$986,878 invested
Consistent
59/96 profitable days
High Roller
$1,990/day
Cool Head
Max DD 5%
Win Streak
8 wins in a row
🦉Night Owl
24/24 hours active

Categories

5
CRYPTO#1,109$38,052Vol: $1,128,019
📈 ECONOMICS#303$24,995Vol: $288,961
💰 FINANCE#498$11,344Vol: $273,710
SPORTS#1,869,133$-2,188Vol: $109,941
🏛️ POLITICS#6,484$4,885Vol: $97,368

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$77,450
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$1,906,499
Total Redeem
$8
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
175
total markets
Trades
1052B / 1011S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~175d

Periods

#2
Week
$10,680
Vol: $0
Month
$11,591
Vol: $319,643
All Time
$77,450
Vol: $1,906,499

PnL Analysis

#3

Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology

Win Rate (events)
60%
100W / 68L events
Realized PnL
$77,470
Win Rate
60%
100W / 68L
Profit Factor
9.58x
Avg Win
$2,595
Avg Loss
$-410

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $163,275 (2.1076084871550806% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$85,690
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?$46,229
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in August?$31,357
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?$18,631
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$11,865
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July?$11,700
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?$11,365
Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $150k first?$9,008
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?$5,836
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?$4,974

Top Losers

Knicks vs. Spurs$-7,117
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?$-3,754
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?$-3,560
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?$-3,135
Knicks vs. Spurs$-2,139
Magic vs. Pistons$-1,066
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?$-652
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?$-577
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5$-488
Spread: Thunder (-15.5)$-482

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.204
Sortino
2.251
HHI
936
Moderate
EV per $1
$0.211
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
23.6%
Top-5 markets
52.8%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
4.2
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.4
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
16:00 UTC
Median Gap
5.2m
between trades
Avg Gap
1.9h
between trades
Night Trading
18%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
4.08
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
2 min
Avg Trades / Session
16.2

Bot Detection

#6
20
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 312s — normal for humanCV 4.08 — diverse sizes (human-like)18% night trades — unusual hours24/24 hours — around the clock4 trades/day — normal0.4 markets/day — normal49% maker — normal mix

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 16:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
15.11
Heavy DCA

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)7.1%
Mid (20-55c)13.3%
High (>55c)79.6%

Sessions

#12
1/2/2026, 3:58:35 PM1 trades$65,5400 min
1/31/2026, 10:48:18 PM2 trades$60,4151 min
5/28/2026, 2:51:55 PM45 trades$55,1010 min
7/29/2026, 2:39:59 PM8 trades$48,2322 min
5/14/2026, 1:59:16 PM15 trades$46,0450 min
7/14/2026, 4:23:22 PM87 trades$44,8184 min
8/19/2026, 4:14:00 PM18 trades$41,2336 min
8/18/2026, 12:37:03 AM33 trades$36,2360 min
8/12/2026, 2:24:13 PM52 trades$32,9385 min
8/19/2026, 9:07:15 PM9 trades$32,0541 min
1/15/2026, 5:26:58 PM1 trades$30,4460 min
7/11/2026, 5:26:08 PM16 trades$28,5753 min
7/14/2026, 4:40:23 PM280 trades$25,48120 min
6/29/2026, 4:40:37 AM3 trades$20,2340 min
2/2/2026, 6:48:26 AM1 trades$19,0000 min
8/19/2026, 5:08:06 PM15 trades$18,5441 min
7/13/2026, 5:15:19 PM3 trades$17,6620 min
1/20/2026, 6:56:20 AM2 trades$17,5364 min
5/2/2026, 4:49:30 AM7 trades$17,0800 min
1/3/2026, 7:16:13 PM1 trades$16,4510 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
04-11
09-02
12-07
02-03
03-27
05-22

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Max drawdown: 23 days (recovered)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
49% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 15.11/mkt
Entry Bias
HIGH $
L7.1 / M13.3 / H79.6