Ardalof

@Ardalof

#2,844,23911

0xd926d72c32ed8224b6749d3c134a3e1ae9b46edb

~81d· 244 markets · 800 tradesVol: $76,543 @Ardalof2026-08-26 08:16:31
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

11
Beginner
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

32% (75/232)1.2/20
0.86x (win $585 / loss $677)0.8/15
Annualised Sharpe -1.3210/15
Sortino -2.2930/10
$-0.0439 per $1 invested0/10
HHI 821 (232 markets)8.4/10
24/70 profitable days (34%)1.1/10
Max DD 2357% of peak ($196 / $8)0/10

Badges

2
Lottery Player
35% entries < $0.20
🦉Night Owl
24/24 hours active

Categories

6
🎭 CULTURE#112,754$3Vol: $30,135
🏛️ POLITICS#1,548,626$-130Vol: $23,435
CRYPTO#1,558,217$-202Vol: $18,713
🌤️ WEATHER#272,328$-30Vol: $2,336
📈 ECONOMICS#588,634$-7Vol: $954
SPORTS#279,222$11Vol: $673

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-371
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$76,543
Total Redeem
$0
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
244
total markets
Trades
432B / 368S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~81d

Periods

#2
Today
$-0
Vol: $0
Week
$-0
Vol: $0
Month
$-61
Vol: $15,131
All Time
$-371
Vol: $76,543

PnL Analysis

#3

Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology

Win Rate (events)
32%
75W / 157L events
Realized PnL
$-371
Win Rate
32%
75W / 157L
Profit Factor
0.86x
Avg Win
$8
Avg Loss
$-5

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $184 (0.49696839041741897% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?$89
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?$49
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?$46
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?$45
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?$35
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?$21
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?$19
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET$19
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 54-55°F on January 11?$17
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on January 12?$17

Top Losers

Internet access restored in Iran by Friday?$-44
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET$-28
Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 7?$-20
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$-20
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?$-20
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?$-19
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?$-17
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?$-15
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?$-14
Will the US next strike Iran on March 1, 2026 (ET)?$-13

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.069
Sortino
-0.154
HHI
141
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.044
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
5%
Top-5 markets
17%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
3.7
Moderate
Markets / Day
1.1
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
18:00 UTC
Median Gap
5.9m
between trades
Avg Gap
2.4h
between trades
Night Trading
8%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.59
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
2 min
Avg Trades / Session
4.6

Bot Detection

#6
15
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 354s — normal for humanCV 1.59 — diverse sizes (human-like)8% night trades — normal pattern24/24 hours — around the clock4 trades/day — normal1.1 markets/day — normal33% maker — normal mix

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 18:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
3.4
Moderate DCA

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)35.2%
Mid (20-55c)41.2%
High (>55c)23.6%

Sessions

#12
7/25/2026, 8:19:10 PM2 trades$8330 min
7/11/2026, 11:10:44 PM2 trades$4000 min
7/14/2026, 5:32:55 PM2 trades$1520 min
6/29/2026, 6:15:50 PM31 trades$11614 min
1/10/2026, 1:32:14 AM3 trades$1116 min
1/16/2026, 6:33:38 AM3 trades$1061 min
1/9/2026, 10:29:26 AM1 trades$1000 min
1/16/2026, 4:38:36 PM1 trades$990 min
8/6/2026, 8:30:05 PM11 trades$981 min
8/6/2026, 5:10:45 PM12 trades$634 min
8/7/2026, 3:35:06 AM8 trades$611 min
7/7/2026, 12:38:28 PM6 trades$585 min
3/5/2026, 12:37:11 AM2 trades$580 min
5/26/2026, 10:13:35 PM3 trades$570 min
1/15/2026, 8:21:18 AM3 trades$571 min
1/12/2026, 6:07:42 AM1 trades$530 min
1/13/2026, 7:09:22 PM3 trades$525 min
1/21/2026, 11:59:24 AM2 trades$492 min
1/15/2026, 11:22:54 AM1 trades$460 min
7/31/2026, 3:55:00 PM2 trades$450 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-10
01-22
02-09
03-04
06-26
07-10
08-06

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Max drawdown: 63 days (not recovered)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
16% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
46% sell
DCA Style
MODERATE
avg 3.4/mkt
Entry Bias
MIXED
L35.2 / M41.2 / H23.6