@timothyking

#1,541,00913

0xd9832d58fca4b66f30a5211c970c5adf75f84758

~38d· 56 markets · 75 tradesVol: $9,6712026-10-08 02:09:31
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

13
Beginner
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

45% (25/55)7.7/20
0.22x (win $1 / loss $5)0/15
Annualised Sharpe -5.9300/15
Sortino -5.7020/10
$-0.0062 per $1 invested0/10
HHI 8063 (55 markets)0/10
17/34 profitable days (50%)5/10
Max DD 3627% of peak ($4 / $0)0/10

Badges

1
Win Streak
5 wins in a row

Categories

7
🏛️ POLITICS#958,880$-2Vol: $3,603
🎭 CULTURE#538,512$-1Vol: $2,820
⚽ SPORTS#971,713$-1Vol: $2,173
📈 ECONOMICS#427,409$-0Vol: $1,028
₿ CRYPTO#590,855$0Vol: $18
💰 FINANCE#274,193$0Vol: $15
💻 TECH#73,707$0Vol: $13

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-4
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$9,671
Total Redeem
$3
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
56
total markets
Trades
62B / 13S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~38d

Periods

#2
Week
$0
Vol: $0
Month
$0
Vol: $3
All Time
$-4
Vol: $9,671

PnL Analysis

#3

Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology

Win Rate (events)
45%
25W / 30L events
Realized PnL
$-4
Win Rate
45%
25W / 30L
Profit Factor
0.22x
Avg Win
$0
Avg Loss
$-1

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $1 (0.14893617021276598% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will Jan van Aken be the next Chancellor of Germany?$0
DeepSeek better than all OpenAI models before June?$0
Will TikTok be banned before July?$0
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?$0
Will Trump speak to Kim Jong Un in May?$0
Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? $0
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by next Friday?$0
Will xAI have the top AI model on January 31?$0
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by Friday?$0
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 by January 31?$0

Top Losers

Will FDP win the most seats in the next German election?$-1
Will the Miami Heat win the 2025 NBA Finals?$-1
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2025?$-1
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting?$-1
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2025?$-0
Will Waldemar Witkowski be the next President of Poland?$-0
Will Heidi Reichinnek be the next Chancellor of Germany?$-0
Will BSW win the most seats in the next German election?$-0

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.306
Sortino
-0.221
HHI
6969
Concentrated
EV per $1
$-0.006
Kelly %
21.8%
Half-Kelly
10.9%
Top-1 market
83.4%
Top-5 markets
86.8%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
0.1
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.1
Active Hours
21/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
12:00 UTC
Median Gap
1.7h
between trades
Avg Gap
4.3h
between trades
Night Trading
21%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
6.50
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
0 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.2

Bot Detection

#6
10
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 6270s — normal for humanCV 6.50 — diverse sizes (human-like)21% night trades — unusual hours21/24 hours — extended activity0 trades/day — normal0.1 markets/day — normal3% maker — normal mix

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 12:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
1.35
Single entry

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)12.9%
Mid (20-55c)0%
High (>55c)87.1%

Sessions

#12
11/16/2025, 4:11:57 PM1 trades$5100 min
11/17/2025, 6:16:53 PM1 trades$5090 min
1/19/2025, 6:47:19 PM4 trades$812 min
10/19/2025, 12:07:09 PM1 trades$70 min
4/20/2025, 12:42:28 PM3 trades$44 min
6/14/2025, 5:25:29 PM2 trades$30 min
4/20/2025, 2:50:40 AM2 trades$30 min
9/26/2026, 9:56:29 PM2 trades$30 min
1/5/2025, 5:18:09 PM1 trades$30 min
1/5/2025, 7:39:47 PM1 trades$30 min
5/12/2025, 11:42:26 AM2 trades$30 min
1/6/2025, 3:50:31 AM1 trades$30 min
1/18/2025, 10:45:28 AM1 trades$30 min
1/18/2025, 12:27:41 PM1 trades$30 min
1/23/2025, 5:35:05 AM1 trades$30 min
6/14/2025, 11:57:15 PM2 trades$20 min
10/22/2025, 4:15:39 AM1 trades$20 min
1/24/2025, 4:19:05 AM1 trades$20 min
4/5/2025, 12:19:55 AM1 trades$20 min
1/6/2025, 8:52:31 AM1 trades$20 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-05
02-09
03-27
05-12
08-27
10-22
02-18

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Max drawdown: 303 days (not recovered)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
17.3% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 1.35/mkt
Entry Bias
HIGH $
L12.9 / M0 / H87.1