@refuri

#2,979,08815

0xdce7b82e559f649b703765f52c0d49724e9ef553

~135d· 156 markets · 848 tradesVol: $397,0592026-08-02 07:43:27
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

15
Beginner
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

39% (51/130)4.6/20
0.32x (win $457 / loss $1,441)0/15
Annualised Sharpe -6.1130/15
Sortino -6.3080/10
$-0.0893 per $1 invested0/10
HHI 572 (130 markets)9.6/10
22/65 profitable days (34%)1/10
Max DD 1755% of peak ($1,043 / $59)0/10

Badges

2
Lottery Player
72% entries < $0.20
🦉Night Owl
22/24 hours active

Categories

7
📈 ECONOMICS#679,064$-1,379Vol: $330,578
🎭 CULTURE#772,278$-74Vol: $20,070
🏛️ POLITICS#1,512,900$-94Vol: $18,264
₿ CRYPTO#1,491,333$-121Vol: $13,080
💰 FINANCE#630,310$-96Vol: $12,498
🌤️ WEATHER#229,841$-5Vol: $2,068
⚽ SPORTS#1,377,985$-12Vol: $269

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-1,728
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$397,059
Total Redeem
$0
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
156
total markets
Trades
450B / 398S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~135d

Periods

#2
Today
$0
Vol: $0
Week
$-0
Vol: $0
All Time
$-1,728
Vol: $397,059

PnL Analysis

#3

Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology

Win Rate (events)
39%
51W / 79L events
Realized PnL
$-1,728
Win Rate
39%
51W / 79L
Profit Factor
0.32x
Avg Win
$9
Avg Loss
$-18

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $210 (0.12170848979639069% of PnL)

Top Winners

Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting?$134
Will Costco Wholesale (COST) beat its quarterly EPS estimate?$54
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting?$23
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?$21
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting?$20
Will Israel strike Yemen 0 times by October 31?$18
New Pope in 2025?$17
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?$13
Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Oct–Dec–Jan)?$13
Will the May 2025 unemployment rate be 4.4%?$10

Top Losers

Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting?$-180
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?$-136
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the September meeting?$-106
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?$-89
Will Solana dip to $70 before 2026?$-73
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?$-62
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?$-57
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?$-52
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?$-47
Will the June 2025 unemployment rate be 4.4%?$-45

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.318
Sortino
-0.318
HHI
258
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.135
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
13.3%
Top-5 markets
26.6%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
1.7
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.3
Active Hours
22/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
16:00 UTC
Median Gap
1.4m
between trades
Avg Gap
1.6h
between trades
Night Trading
4%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.88
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
2 min
Avg Trades / Session
6.4

Bot Detection

#6
15
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 84s — normal for humanCV 1.88 — diverse sizes (human-like)4% night trades — normal pattern22/24 hours — around the clock2 trades/day — normal0.3 markets/day — normal10% maker — normal mix

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 16:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
4.17
Moderate DCA

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)71.6%
Mid (20-55c)14.4%
High (>55c)14%

Sessions

#12
11/7/2025, 12:46:33 AM4 trades$1,9506 min
6/10/2026, 12:34:48 PM11 trades$1,1421 min
7/2/2026, 12:37:13 PM51 trades$8991 min
9/16/2025, 6:27:04 PM3 trades$8404 min
6/6/2026, 8:54:52 PM5 trades$5370 min
3/2/2026, 5:37:25 PM7 trades$5268 min
11/7/2025, 1:10:27 AM1 trades$4720 min
11/7/2025, 1:48:37 AM5 trades$4721 min
4/9/2025, 4:45:55 PM6 trades$4263 min
9/15/2025, 2:49:26 PM4 trades$3962 min
9/17/2025, 6:02:42 PM4 trades$3923 min
5/31/2026, 12:30:04 PM7 trades$3100 min
5/15/2026, 4:23:04 PM8 trades$3060 min
6/24/2026, 4:19:16 PM14 trades$3011 min
7/25/2025, 7:37:57 PM5 trades$2955 min
7/1/2026, 4:02:29 PM62 trades$2761 min
6/10/2026, 12:45:13 PM8 trades$2741 min
7/22/2025, 4:54:00 PM5 trades$2721 min
9/16/2025, 12:31:58 PM4 trades$2602 min
7/22/2025, 6:44:54 PM4 trades$2602 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
02-25
06-22
08-17
10-01
10-16
01-28
02-23

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Max drawdown: 449 days (not recovered)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
46.9% sell
DCA Style
MODERATE
avg 4.17/mkt
Entry Bias
LOW $
L71.6 / M14.4 / H14