@coldwaterkayakers
#2,826,819220xfdff7a235474e1a406c992c3611ed96bc173d544
~90d· 194 markets · 886 tradesVol: $84,3862026-09-22 09:54:46
SMART SCORE SYSTEM
Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.
Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.
22
Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard
Score Components
44% (76/172)7.1/20
0.44x (win $351 / loss $800)0/15
Annualised Sharpe -3.3500/15
Sortino -3.3680/10
$-0.2502 per $1 invested0/10
HHI 238 (172 markets)10/10
32/63 profitable days (51%)5.2/10
Max DD 0% of peak ($449 / $0)0/10
Badges
3Lottery Player
82% entries < $0.20
Win Streak
6 wins in a row
🦉Night Owl
24/24 hours active
Categories
8🏛️ POLITICS#1,587,650$-310Vol: $44,032
🎭 CULTURE#175,725$1Vol: $19,232
₿ CRYPTO#1,282,653$-22Vol: $10,694
⚽ SPORTS#1,396,634$-12Vol: $7,657
💰 FINANCE#23,471$61Vol: $1,555
📈 ECONOMICS#598,545$-8Vol: $646
💻 TECH#22,035$7Vol: $348
📢 MENTIONS#110,315$-4Vol: $166
Overview
#1Net PnL
$-286
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$84,386
Total Redeem
$0
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
194
total markets
Trades
729B / 157S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~90d
Periods
#2Today
$3
Vol: $0
Week
$22
Vol: $1,208
Month
$2
Vol: $35,417
All Time
$-286
Vol: $84,386
PnL Analysis
#3Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology
Win Rate (events)
44%
76W / 96L events
Realized PnL
$-327
Win Rate
44%
76W / 96L
Profit Factor
0.44x
Avg Win
$5
Avg Loss
$-9
Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $84 (0.2585858585858586% of PnL)
Top Winners
Will the Republican candidate win North Carolina by 3.0%-4.0%?$36
Will a Republican win Pennsylvania US Senate Election?$27
Will PHI Eagles D/ST score a TD in Super Bowl LIX?$22
Will the number of federal employees decrease by less than 25,000 between December and June? $21
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote?$18
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election?$15
Bitcoin above $100,000 on December 20?$13
Will Trump impose 25% tariff on Mexico or Canada before February?$11
Will Ohio State win the 2025 College Football Playoff?$11
Will the Packers beat the Bears by 10 or more points?$10
Top Losers
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?$-289
Will Biden pardon Liz Cheney?$-36
Will Biden pardon Fauci?$-36
Will Bitcoin hit $90k or $100k first?$-27
Will another team win the 2025 College Football Playoff?$-21
Will Biden issue a preemptive pardon?$-20
Will Trump win 7 swing states?$-20
Trump ban on birth right citizenship in first 100 days?$-20
Will Trump win 4 swing states?$-17
Will either Kamala or Trump win every swing state?$-15
Risk Metrics
#4Sharpe
-0.174
Sortino
-0.132
HHI
339
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.259
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
16.1%
Top-5 markets
26.2%
Behavior Analysis
#5Trades / Day
1.3
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.3
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
16:00 UTC
Median Gap
5.7m
between trades
Avg Gap
2.4h
between trades
Night Trading
14%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
2.27
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
4 min
Avg Trades / Session
4.4
Bot Detection
#615
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability
7 indicators analyzed
Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 340s — normal for humanCV 2.27 — diverse sizes (human-like)14% night trades — normal pattern24/24 hours — around the clock1 trades/day — normal0.3 markets/day — normal66% maker — normal mix
Timing Patterns
#7Peak hour: 16:00 UTC
0
4
8
12
16
20
DCA Analysis
#8Avg entries/market
4.79
Price Levels
#9Low (<20c)82.3%
Mid (20-55c)9.2%
High (>55c)8.5%
Sessions
#122/28/2026, 8:15:01 PM2 trades$1192 min
6/2/2026, 4:11:04 PM2 trades$1120 min
11/29/2024, 7:31:27 PM2 trades$681 min
1/25/2025, 6:25:27 PM2 trades$623 min
1/5/2025, 11:39:17 AM3 trades$578 min
12/19/2024, 5:29:38 PM3 trades$502 min
10/30/2024, 12:55:32 PM9 trades$509 min
12/19/2024, 5:01:30 PM3 trades$463 min
11/1/2024, 11:57:20 AM4 trades$442 min
11/23/2024, 9:50:45 AM4 trades$409 min
12/29/2024, 4:05:20 PM1 trades$390 min
12/18/2024, 7:43:06 PM2 trades$393 min
11/1/2024, 5:49:56 AM3 trades$386 min
1/2/2025, 1:45:23 PM3 trades$388 min
1/6/2025, 4:50:13 AM2 trades$371 min
1/20/2025, 11:45:53 AM1 trades$360 min
1/6/2025, 5:06:11 AM1 trades$350 min
9/1/2026, 7:11:16 PM10 trades$345 min
8/24/2026, 4:59:03 PM21 trades$3412 min
1/20/2025, 11:38:47 AM2 trades$330 min
Equity Curve
#13Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
10-30
11-23
12-13
01-04
01-19
02-20
03-12
Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)
Profile
#14Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
17.7% sell
DCA Style
MODERATE
avg 4.79/mkt
Entry Bias
LOW $
L82.3 / M9.2 / H8.5