Backto2013

@Backto2013

#56,74415

0xffef70997dc07f4a9f11c90bc8b0100b31fdd7db

~103d· 71 markets · 1189 tradesVol: $383,5132026-08-23 21:50:34
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

15
Beginner
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

35% (24/68)2.6/20
0.61x (win $5,983 / loss $9,745)0/15
Annualised Sharpe -1.6460/15
Sortino -1.9560/10
$-0.1654 per $1 invested0/10
HHI 752 (68 markets)8.7/10
17/38 profitable days (45%)3.7/10
Max DD 190% of peak ($7,942 / $4,180)0/10

Badges

5
Profitable
PnL $+1,826
Lottery Player
69% entries < $0.20
Win Streak
5 wins in a row
🦉Night Owl
24/24 hours active
🏗️Market Maker
73% maker orders

Categories

5
CRYPTO#1,653,436$-1,365Vol: $275,962
💰 FINANCE#661,322$-1,608Vol: $75,227
💻 TECH#417$4,844Vol: $31,224
📈 ECONOMICS#592,424$-8Vol: $1,000
SPORTS#1,568,723$-40Vol: $100

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$1,823
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$383,513
Total Redeem
$0
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
71
total markets
Trades
748B / 441S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~103d

Periods

#2
Week
$-6
Vol: $0
Month
$-98
Vol: $3,475
All Time
$1,823
Vol: $383,513

PnL Analysis

#3

Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology

Win Rate (events)
35%
24W / 44L events
Realized PnL
$1,826
Win Rate
35%
24W / 44L
Profit Factor
0.61x
Avg Win
$249
Avg Loss
$-221

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $4,700 (2.573804699052522% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will Claude 5 be released by February 28, 2026?$3,781
Will Claude 5 be released by February 14, 2026?$505
Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026?$413
Grok 4.20 released by January 31?$282
Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch?$159
DeepSeek V4 released by March 31?$156
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading?$144
Will Opinion launch a token by February 17, 2026?$139
DeepSeek V4 released by April 30?$54
Zama FDV above $500M one day after launch?$51

Top Losers

MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch?$-4,104
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?$-1,619
GPT-5.3 released by March 8, 2026?$-854
GPT-5.4 released by March 5?$-421
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? $-359
GPT-5.6 released by July 17, 2026?$-312
Over $5M committed to the Hurupay public sale?$-301
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?$-273
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?$-243
Will MegaETH launch a token by March 31, 2026?$-169

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.085
Sortino
-0.079
HHI
701
Moderate
EV per $1
$-0.168
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
16.6%
Top-5 markets
52.2%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
4.4
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.3
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
18:00 UTC
Median Gap
6.9m
between trades
Avg Gap
1.6h
between trades
Night Trading
19%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.71
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
3 min
Avg Trades / Session
5.2

Bot Detection

#6
25
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 414s — normal for humanCV 1.71 — diverse sizes (human-like)19% night trades — unusual hours24/24 hours — around the clock4 trades/day — normal0.3 markets/day — normal73% maker — frequent liquidity provider

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 18:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
17.1
Heavy DCA

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)68.9%
Mid (20-55c)22.5%
High (>55c)8.7%

Sessions

#12
4/29/2026, 11:00:38 AM10 trades$2,4281 min
4/30/2026, 10:34:56 AM22 trades$1,80015 min
12/30/2025, 5:15:39 AM13 trades$1,6595 min
2/7/2026, 1:18:35 AM6 trades$1,20011 min
12/30/2025, 6:45:33 AM13 trades$1,15910 min
3/3/2026, 6:15:49 PM5 trades$1,05814 min
12/30/2025, 3:43:11 AM10 trades$1,0039 min
4/30/2026, 8:09:50 PM2 trades$1,0000 min
4/29/2026, 12:32:12 PM5 trades$1,0001 min
12/30/2025, 7:00:55 AM10 trades$8555 min
2/6/2026, 8:25:39 PM1 trades$8500 min
2/6/2026, 3:40:53 PM1 trades$7500 min
8/2/2026, 1:23:32 PM8 trades$6994 min
7/24/2026, 8:17:52 PM17 trades$6915 min
12/30/2025, 2:19:57 AM1 trades$6620 min
4/27/2026, 7:35:42 AM11 trades$5950 min
4/30/2026, 10:24:16 AM9 trades$5015 min
4/26/2026, 12:30:30 PM2 trades$5000 min
4/29/2026, 12:24:14 PM3 trades$5000 min
2/15/2026, 9:24:11 PM1 trades$4980 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
11-19
12-28
01-14
02-08
02-17
03-11
07-27

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Max drawdown: 157 days (not recovered)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
37.1% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 17.1/mkt
Entry Bias
LOW $
L68.9 / M22.5 / H8.7