Polydata

@123987456

#2,890,24185

0x0130afd6f3efddf1c3e16e01217b172dd9befb49

197d· 6889 markets · 11521 tradesVol: $2,573,7302026-06-19T21:08
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

85
Very Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 70%20/20
Profit Factor 9.37x15/15
Sharpe 0.2505/15
Sortino 0.8178/10
EV $+4822.62010/10
HHI 6910/10
Profit Days 61%8/10
DD/Peak 6%10/10

Summary

Trader 123987456 is moderately active on Polymarket, with 11,521 trades executed across 1,275 markets over 423 days. Despite a high trading volume of approximately $2.57 million, the trader ranks low on the global PnL leaderboard at #2,890,241, reflecting a significant net loss of over $36 million. Their smart score of 85/100 indicates a very good trading acumen, but the overall portfolio value is modest at around $16,500, with a low Sharpe ratio of 0.25 suggesting limited risk-adjusted returns.

123987456 appears to favor diverse markets, with a small allocation to weather-related events (5%) and a slight majority of sell transactions (56%). Their trading style combines manual and automated strategies, as suggested by a semi-bot score of 55/100. The win rate of 31.5% and profit factor of 0.17 imply a high-risk profile with many losing trades, but the trader maintains a steady equity trend and quick recovery from drawdowns. The presence of badges like Sniper and Win Streak points to a focus on precise, timely entries and short bursts of successful trades.

The main strength of 123987456 lies in consistency and resilience, as shown by a flat equity trend and zero days of maximum drawdown duration, indicating the ability to limit prolonged losses. However, the large overall net loss and low profit factor raise concerns about long-term profitability and risk management. Their semi-automated approach may balance speed and discretion but also introduces complexity that could impact performance. Traders following 123987456 on Polymarket should consider these factors when interpreting their trading style and results.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

5
Sniper
Win Rate 70%
Win Streak
7 wins in a row
Whale
$338,079
Consistent
65/106 days
Cool Head
DD 6%

Categories

9
🎭 CULTURE#799,139$-43,330,036Vol: $1,090,902
🏛️ POLITICS#1,603,580$-6,654,986Vol: $670,056
🌤️ WEATHER#1$70,083,416Vol: $359,283
📈 ECONOMICS#663,208$-54,881,796Vol: $237,863
💰 FINANCE#632,814$-1,037,440Vol: $192,582
SPORTS#70,353$253Vol: $8,902
CRYPTO#74,373$135Vol: $6,990
💻 TECH#219,798$-21Vol: $1,028
📢 MENTIONS#20,889$8Vol: $105

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-36,059,746
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$2,573,730
Total Redeem
$7,807
Portfolio
$16,514
Predictions
6889
total markets
Trades
5121B / 6400S
Daily Volume
$799
Account Age
197d
since Dec 6, 2025

Periods

#2
Today
$-36,086,904
Vol: $21,792
Week
$-36,086,920
Vol: $108,544
Month
$-36,091,409
Vol: $176,913
All Time
$-36,059,746
Vol: $2,573,730

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
61%
259W / 165L events
Realized PnL
$79,927,320
Win Rate
32%
23W / 50L
Profit Factor
0.17x
Avg Win
$118
Avg Loss
$-315

Top Winners

Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Mar–$1,975
Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026?$158
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and$111
Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after June 202$108
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m a$98
Will Kim Jin-tae win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial elec$65
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026?$45
Will Peter Milobar win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Col$26
Will Kerry-Lynne Findlay win the 2026 Conservative Party of Briti$22
Will Randy Feenstra win the 2026 Iowa Governor Republican primary$18

Top Losers

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 202$-5,603
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X?$-1,518
Will Park Heong-joon win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election?$-1,431
Will Anže Logar be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?$-1,193
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?$-1,166
Will Kim Tae-heum win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernator$-489
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian p$-460
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 4°C on March 6?$-450
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and$-394
Will Earl Carter be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia?$-241

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.250
Sortino
0.817
HHI
69
Diversified
EV per $1
$4822.620
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
3%
Top-5 markets
13.1%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
63.9
Very active
Markets / Day
7.1
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
20:00 UTC
Median Gap
6.0m
between trades
Avg Gap
16.7m
between trades
Night Trading
23%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
3.97
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
0 min
Avg Trades / Session
2.3

Bot Detection

#6
55
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
MEDIUM
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 360s — typical for humanSize CV 3.97 — diverse, typical for human23% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 0.82 — human randomness64 trades/day — mass trading1964 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 20:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
5.2
Active DCA
<=1
309 entries
<=2
482 entries
<=5
732 entries
<=10
875 entries
<=20
958 entries
<=50
984 entries
>50
5 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)6.1%
Mid (20-55c)13.5%
High (>55c)80.5%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 1.3%

Atlanta$0
Seattle$0
Dallas$0
Wellington$0
Lucknow$0
Paris$0
Sao Paulo$0
Munich$0
Los Angeles$0
Austin$0
Denver$0
São Paulo$0
Miami$-26
Seoul$-68
New York City$-83
Chicago$-103
Buenos Aires$-140
London$-188

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
3.1
Events covered
415

Multi-bracket hedger

<=1
251 brackets
<=2
289 brackets
<=3
313 brackets
<=4
335 brackets
<=5
350 brackets
<=8
382 brackets
>8
33 brackets

Sessions

#12
12/21/2025, 4:19:05 PM1 trades$350 min
3/1/2026, 12:08:17 PM6 trades$1290 min
3/1/2026, 12:32:31 PM1 trades$80 min
3/1/2026, 9:39:53 PM1 trades$30 min
3/1/2026, 9:48:51 PM1 trades$200 min
3/1/2026, 10:07:29 PM1 trades$370 min
3/2/2026, 12:15:29 AM1 trades$330 min
3/2/2026, 12:57:27 AM1 trades$200 min
3/2/2026, 2:50:45 AM1 trades$210 min
3/2/2026, 4:45:25 AM1 trades$260 min
3/2/2026, 6:28:11 AM1 trades$30 min
3/2/2026, 7:01:29 AM1 trades$80 min
3/2/2026, 2:14:41 PM2 trades$570 min
3/2/2026, 2:28:55 PM1 trades$270 min
3/2/2026, 2:59:51 PM1 trades$160 min
3/2/2026, 3:10:41 PM10 trades$234 min
3/2/2026, 3:37:59 PM1 trades$200 min
3/2/2026, 3:48:01 PM1 trades$20 min
3/2/2026, 4:49:57 PM2 trades$84 min
3/2/2026, 5:08:49 PM1 trades$140 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
03-03
03-28
04-28
05-24
06-17
09-01
03-31

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
5% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
55.6% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 5.2/mkt
Hedging
MULTI
avg 3.1 br/event