@Arbguy
#387640x53e55bc7cb3d67ad177c023ce891ad076a9d6177
~402d· 924 markets · 27891 tradesVol: $63,050,7352026-07-31 23:27:52
SMART SCORE SYSTEM
Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.
Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.
64
Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard
Score Components
47% (418/898)8.3/20
1.30x (win $4,288,398 / loss $3,292,882)6.3/15
Annualised Sharpe 1.13615/15
Sortino 3.67010/10
$+0.0657 per $1 invested3.3/10
HHI 135 (898 markets)10/10
127/280 profitable days (45%)3.8/10
Max DD 35% of peak ($415,277 / $1,200,122)7.1/10
Badges
8Profitable
PnL $+530,137
Lottery Player
43% entries < $0.20
DCA Master
Avg 27.1 entries/market
Whale
$15,142,842 invested
High Roller
$19,977/day
Win Streak
6 wins in a row
🦉Night Owl
24/24 hours active
🏗️Market Maker
85% maker orders
Categories
9🏛️ POLITICS#68$612,057Vol: $45,780,432
⚽ SPORTS#1,879,610$-30,296Vol: $7,709,197
📈 ECONOMICS#681,820$-25,198Vol: $6,502,916
🎭 CULTURE#121$53,937Vol: $1,318,203
₿ CRYPTO#1,673,446$-35,893Vol: $817,493
📢 MENTIONS#176,577$-34,532Vol: $416,244
💻 TECH#97$17,033Vol: $383,041
💰 FINANCE#655,321$-2,611Vol: $90,359
🌤️ WEATHER#298,492$-23,459Vol: $32,186
Overview
#1Net PnL
$530,826
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$63,050,735
Total Redeem
$1,152,296
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
924
total markets
Trades
21541B / 6350S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~402d
Periods
#2Today
$5,123
Vol: $0
Week
$53,793
Vol: $58,964
Month
$-5,372
Vol: $1,794,100
All Time
$530,826
Vol: $63,050,735
PnL Analysis
#3Win Rate (events)
47%
418W / 480L events
Realized PnL
$530,137
Win Rate
47%
418W / 480L
Profit Factor
1.3x
Avg Win
$10,259
Avg Loss
$-6,947
Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $1,118,801 (2.1103986858352046% of PnL)
Top Winners
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$626,272
US forces enter Iran by April 30?$269,026
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?$223,503
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?$200,600
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$145,076
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?$106,927
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?$99,605
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?$97,053
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?$74,210
Will Josh Shapiro be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee?$66,215
Top Losers
US forces enter Iran by March 31?$-118,355
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?$-101,332
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?$-78,720
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?$-66,263
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?$-62,315
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?$-52,079
Trump imposes tariff on semiconductors by December 31?$-49,611
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?$-47,507
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?$-42,955
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31?$-42,127
Risk Metrics
#4Sharpe
0.059
Sortino
0.172
HHI
88
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.069
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
4.3%
Top-5 markets
14.1%
Behavior Analysis
#5Trades / Day
36.8
Active
Markets / Day
1.2
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
17:00 UTC
Median Gap
1.2m
between trades
Avg Gap
20.7m
between trades
Night Trading
17%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
5.93
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
5 min
Avg Trades / Session
24.3
Bot Detection
#650
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability
7 indicators analyzed
Trade Speed
MEDIUM
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 70s — normal for humanCV 5.93 — diverse sizes (human-like)17% night trades — unusual hours24/24 hours — around the clock37 trades/day — high frequency1.2 markets/day — normal85% maker — systematic market making
Timing Patterns
#7Peak hour: 17:00 UTC
0
4
8
12
16
20
DCA Analysis
#8Avg entries/market
27.07
Price Levels
#9Low (<20c)42.6%
Mid (20-55c)33.2%
High (>55c)24.1%
Sessions
#124/1/2026, 4:13:13 AM24 trades$772,6523 min
5/9/2026, 6:24:09 PM6 trades$577,9752 min
4/1/2026, 4:05:39 AM5 trades$486,3090 min
6/16/2026, 11:56:01 AM25 trades$237,35525 min
9/16/2025, 3:07:04 PM59 trades$227,5498 min
3/4/2026, 6:24:13 PM3 trades$199,8324 min
3/4/2026, 4:37:41 PM12 trades$199,76412 min
4/23/2026, 12:12:10 AM31 trades$192,8516 min
3/5/2026, 5:11:05 PM3 trades$190,7305 min
5/20/2026, 2:17:48 PM148 trades$175,4675 min
4/28/2026, 7:07:18 PM8 trades$161,2461 min
2/21/2026, 1:16:04 AM2 trades$161,2055 min
7/21/2026, 1:47:21 PM191 trades$153,7120 min
5/9/2026, 7:06:22 PM2 trades$134,8650 min
5/9/2026, 7:38:37 PM1 trades$134,8650 min
3/31/2025, 4:02:41 PM54 trades$124,5090 min
3/31/2026, 2:22:41 PM54 trades$124,5090 min
4/1/2026, 3:08:41 PM99 trades$120,03431 min
5/9/2026, 2:51:47 AM13 trades$113,0212 min
5/9/2026, 4:48:24 PM6 trades$105,9423 min
Equity Curve
#13Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
07-21
07-26
10-25
12-13
02-21
05-09
07-20
Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)
Max drawdown: 549 days (recovered)
Profile
#14Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
22.8% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 27.07/mkt
Entry Bias
LOW $
L42.6 / M33.2 / H24.1