Astera

@Astera

#3,07679

0xb5b8eb95db0c651af2b83fb804cc0b700ce5f0cb

~179d· 127 markets · 3088 tradesVol: $3,817,9412026-10-07 03:15:50
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

79
Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

71% (89/126)20/20
1.55x (win $187,495 / loss $121,248)9.3/15
Annualised Sharpe 1.85115/15
Sortino 2.83310/10
$+0.0525 per $1 invested2.6/10
HHI 347 (126 markets)10/10
48/68 profitable days (71%)10/10
Max DD 62% of peak ($62,084 / $100,157)1.6/10

Badges

8
Sniper
Win rate 71%
Profitable
PnL $+59,163
DCA Master
Avg 25.4 entries/market
Whale
$1,263,022 invested
Consistent
48/68 profitable days
High Roller
$1,799/day
Win Streak
7 wins in a row
🦉Night Owl
24/24 hours active

Categories

7
🏛️ POLITICS#1,648$28,426Vol: $3,059,655
⚽ SPORTS#1,868,067$-805Vol: $144,671
₿ CRYPTO#33,422$774Vol: $138,063
🎭 CULTURE#826,290$-5,684Vol: $70,980
💻 TECH#942$1,927Vol: $13,585
📈 ECONOMICS#536,983$-2Vol: $13,539
📢 MENTIONS#24,336$6Vol: $6,068

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$58,444
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$3,817,941
Total Redeem
$1,037
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
127
total markets
Trades
2170B / 918S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~179d

Periods

#2
Today
$-85
Vol: $39,086
Week
$107
Vol: $184,150
Month
$-220
Vol: $225,061
All Time
$58,444
Vol: $3,817,941

PnL Analysis

#3

Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology

Win Rate (events)
71%
90W / 36L events
Realized PnL
$59,163
Win Rate
71%
90W / 36L
Profit Factor
1.55x
Avg Win
$2,107
Avg Loss
$-3,566

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $100,560 (1.6996904506196566% of PnL)

Top Winners

GOP wins popular vote by less than 1.5%?$42,047
Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election?$32,180
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$26,333
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?$18,971
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian election?$8,811
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote?$8,510
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election?$7,730
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?$5,044
Will there be 155,000,000-160,000,000 votes cast in the U.S. Presidential Election?$4,909
Will the Conservative Party win the popular vote in Canada's next election?$4,271

Top Losers

Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April?$-49,231
Will Kim Moon-soo win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential election?$-12,519
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$-9,719
Will the Liberal–National Coalition win the most seats in the next Australian parliamentary election?$-8,182
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority?$-7,325
Liberals win majority in Canadian election?$-6,893
Sea/Air ceasefire in Ukraine before May? $-5,886
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$-3,214
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$-2,993
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates$-2,024

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.096
Sortino
0.087
HHI
311
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.052
Kelly %
5.4%
Half-Kelly
2.7%
Top-1 market
7.9%
Top-5 markets
30.9%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
4.4
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.2
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
19:00 UTC
Median Gap
2.6m
between trades
Avg Gap
1.0h
between trades
Night Trading
35%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
2.95
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
3 min
Avg Trades / Session
4.7

Bot Detection

#6
30
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 156s — normal for humanCV 2.95 — diverse sizes (human-like)35% night trades — never sleeps24/24 hours — around the clock4 trades/day — normal0.2 markets/day — normal55% maker — normal mix

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 19:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
25.38
Heavy DCA

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)12.8%
Mid (20-55c)11.9%
High (>55c)75.3%

Sessions

#12
3/19/2025, 5:44:32 PM2 trades$59,9111 min
4/30/2025, 5:07:55 AM2 trades$53,8920 min
3/28/2025, 5:59:48 PM5 trades$50,7707 min
3/19/2025, 6:23:18 AM4 trades$45,7482 min
12/11/2024, 12:22:36 AM3 trades$27,2566 min
3/28/2025, 6:20:31 PM1 trades$27,2500 min
12/15/2024, 7:28:55 AM2 trades$26,6883 min
4/30/2025, 11:42:08 PM2 trades$26,0481 min
4/20/2025, 4:59:44 AM10 trades$24,9527 min
11/6/2024, 3:17:29 PM2 trades$22,6061 min
4/30/2025, 10:20:55 AM3 trades$20,4392 min
12/11/2024, 8:53:32 PM2 trades$20,0364 min
2/10/2025, 1:36:49 AM2 trades$20,0280 min
4/29/2025, 1:55:52 AM30 trades$19,79016 min
12/9/2024, 8:18:47 PM4 trades$19,6925 min
11/6/2024, 9:52:39 PM2 trades$18,9954 min
5/7/2025, 3:57:08 AM4 trades$18,7506 min
3/6/2025, 11:04:49 PM2 trades$18,5641 min
5/11/2025, 12:32:28 AM1 trades$18,4480 min
5/13/2025, 3:59:52 PM1 trades$18,3830 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
11-02
12-13
03-05
04-20
05-06
02-25
07-12

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Max drawdown: 41 days (not recovered)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
29.7% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 25.38/mkt
Entry Bias
HIGH $
L12.8 / M11.9 / H75.3