Polydata
Crazy-Statement

@Crazy-Statement

#2,903,35375

0xa3d4e2cc8ec5c79b7ded5553576ee990e3e16297

189d· 5864 markets · 9471 tradesVol: $436,8452026-07-03T08:43
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

75
Very Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 81%20/20
Profit Factor 0.18x0/15
Sharpe 0.95915/15
Sortino 24.95810/10
HHI 5710/10
Profit Days 89%10/10
DD/Peak 0%10/10

Summary

Crazy-Statement is a moderately active trader on Polymarket with 9,471 trades across 896 markets over 111 days. Despite a high trading volume of $436,845, the trader currently holds a net PnL of -$2,393.64 and ranks #2,903,353 on the global leaderboard. Their portfolio value is $1,101.71, reflecting a cautious equity trend, while their smart score of 75/100 indicates very good trading acumen.

The trader’s style appears focused on high-frequency activity with a contrarian approach, as suggested by badges like Contrarian and Sniper. Crazy-Statement shows a low win rate of 36.7% but maintains a steady Sharpe ratio of 0.96, implying moderate risk-adjusted returns. Their profit factor of 0.18 and zero sell percentage indicate a long-biased or hold strategy, supported by the Diamond Hands badge and semi-automated trading methods. They do not participate in weather markets and display no drawdown duration, suggesting disciplined risk control.

Crazy-Statement’s main strength lies in consistency and disciplined trade management, which may help in navigating volatile Polymarket conditions. However, the negative net PnL and low profit factor highlight challenges in profitability, potentially stemming from a high volume of small-loss trades. Continued monitoring is advised to assess whether their contrarian, semi-bot strategy can improve returns or if risks associated with high trade frequency might persist.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

6
Sniper
Win Rate 81%
Contrarian
50% entries <$0.50
Diamond Hands
0% sell
Win Streak
5 wins in a row
Consistent
42/47 days
Cool Head
DD 0%

Categories

1
SPORTS#1,771,615$-2,558Vol: $326,127

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-2,394
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$436,845
Total Redeem
$19,598
Portfolio
$1,102
Predictions
5864
total markets
Trades
9465B / 6S
Daily Volume
$399
Account Age
189d
since Dec 27, 2025

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
88%
226W / 31L events
Realized PnL
$26,502
Win Rate
37%
249W / 430L
Profit Factor
0.18x
Avg Win
$17
Avg Loss
$-55

Top Winners

Will América de Cali win on 2026-04-09?$474
Spread: Nuggets (-11.5)$193
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-11?$180
Will AD Ceuta FC win on 2026-04-10?$174
Will Gaziantep FK win on 2026-04-13?$146
Timberwolves vs. Rockets$119
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD (BO3) - CBLOL Regular Season$108
Wild vs. Stars$91
Hurricanes vs. Flyers$82
LoL: Solary vs Misa Esports (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs$80

Top Losers

Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Zverev$-956
Real Madrid CF vs. Girona FC: O/U 3.5$-871
Suns vs. Knicks$-432
Australian Open Men's: Arthur Gea vs Stan Wawrinka$-398
Will Senegal win on 2026-01-18?$-386
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs FURIA (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Qualifi$-345
49ers vs. Seahawks$-345
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Sinners (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #13 Pla$-344
Australian Open Men's: Novak Djokovic vs Jannik Sinner$-326
Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2026-04-09?$-320

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.960
Sortino
24.958
HHI
57
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.470
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
3.1%
Top-5 markets
11.1%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
100.1
Very active
Markets / Day
9.5
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
20:00 UTC
Median Gap
30s
between trades
Avg Gap
2.4m
between trades
Night Trading
20%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.80
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
22 min
Avg Trades / Session
31.5

Bot Detection

#6
60
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
HIGH
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
HIGH
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
MEDIUM
Median gap 30s — typical for humanSize CV 1.80 — diverse, typical for human20% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.03 — human randomness100 trades/day — automation375 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 20:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
10.6
Heavy DCA
<=1
205 entries
<=2
395 entries
<=5
664 entries
<=10
743 entries
<=20
771 entries
<=50
841 entries
>50
55 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)12.1%
Mid (20-55c)44.6%
High (>55c)43.3%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 41%

Toronto$32
Los Angeles$27
San Francisco$0
Seattle$0
Beijing$-2
Houston$-3
Miami$-12
São Paulo$-26
Atlanta$-46
Chicago$-60
Paris$-226
Madrid$-696
Other$-18,616

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.9
Events covered
483

Single bracket

<=1
304 brackets
<=2
355 brackets
<=3
425 brackets
<=4
453 brackets
<=5
471 brackets
<=8
483 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
1/10/2026, 2:54:28 PM1 trades$30 min
1/10/2026, 3:07:44 PM1 trades$20 min
1/10/2026, 3:16:06 PM1 trades$10 min
1/11/2026, 7:03:16 PM1 trades$40 min
1/11/2026, 7:28:34 PM2 trades$51 min
1/11/2026, 7:46:50 PM1 trades$50 min
1/16/2026, 1:36:04 AM1 trades$10 min
1/17/2026, 6:41:36 PM7 trades$593 min
1/17/2026, 7:24:02 PM1 trades$20 min
1/17/2026, 7:30:40 PM5 trades$54 min
1/17/2026, 7:44:56 PM12 trades$2810 min
1/17/2026, 8:00:12 PM2 trades$30 min
1/17/2026, 8:23:14 PM24 trades$9434 min
1/17/2026, 9:10:36 PM29 trades$4720 min
1/17/2026, 9:48:34 PM1 trades$10 min
1/17/2026, 10:25:02 PM6 trades$173 min
1/17/2026, 11:15:12 PM1 trades$300 min
1/17/2026, 11:35:18 PM2 trades$315 min
1/18/2026, 12:11:58 AM1 trades$30 min
1/18/2026, 12:21:40 AM3 trades$31 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-04
01-12
01-19
01-29
02-08
04-10
04-20

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
0.1% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 10.6/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.9 br/event