Polydata
CreamCream1215

@CreamCream1215

#14,571100

0x01ced860d8dca5d7987579d2a2635df8520d27a2

72d· 427 markets · 2907 tradesVol: $328,9502026-06-03T03:37
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

100
Elite
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 83%20/20
Profit Factor 15.33x15/15
Sharpe 1.23615/15
Sortino 2.57810/10
EV $+13.31710/10
HHI 12410/10
Profit Days 93%10/10
DD/Peak 1%10/10

Summary

CreamCream1215 is a highly active trader on Polymarket, with 2,907 trades executed across 265 markets over 99 days. Despite ranking #14,571 globally by net PnL, the trader has achieved an impressive net profit of $8,757.38 and maintains a perfect Smart Score of 100/100, indicating elite trading skill. Their total trading volume exceeds $328,000, reflecting significant market participation.

The trader primarily focuses on weather-related markets, which constitute 63% of their trades. CreamCream1215 exhibits a balanced risk profile, supported by a strong win rate of 77.8% and a profit factor of 9.35. Their trading style blends manual and automated strategies, as reflected in a semi-bot score of 45/100, and they tend to hold a moderate sell percentage of 28%. Timing appears consistent, with no recorded drawdown duration, suggesting disciplined entry and exit points.

Key strengths for CreamCream1215 include a high Sharpe ratio of 1.24, a stable equity trend, and badges denoting sniper-like precision and contrarian tactics. However, the flat portfolio value of $464.10 relative to their overall profit might indicate limited capital deployment or conservative position sizing. Additionally, the reliance on weather markets could expose them to sector-specific volatility or information asymmetry risks.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

8
Sniper
Win Rate 83%
Profitable
PnL $+8,757
Contrarian
66% entries <$0.50
DCA Master
avg 7.9 entries/market
Win Streak
14 wins in a row
Whale
$53,649
Consistent
66/71 days
Cool Head
DD 1%

Categories

3
🌤️ WEATHER#160$9,029Vol: $317,365
₿ CRYPTO#1,445,014$-269Vol: $10,193
🏛️ POLITICS#1,327,240$-20Vol: $400

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$8,757
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$328,950
Total Redeem
$8,942
Portfolio
$464
Predictions
427
total markets
Trades
2099B / 808S
Daily Volume
$542
Account Age
72d
since Mar 23, 2026

Periods

#2
Today
$-10
Vol: $612
Week
$271
Vol: $13,225
Month
$271
Vol: $9,148
All Time
$8,757
Vol: $328,950

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
92%
162W / 15L events
Realized PnL
$21,130
Win Rate
78%
168W / 48L
Profit Factor
9.35x
Avg Win
$111
Avg Loss
$-41

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $1,907 (11.5% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 31?$679
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 6?$614
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on April 24?$614
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on Ma$560
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 2?$546
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 25?$545
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on May 5?$540
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 23?$521
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 7?$480
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 14?$453

Top Losers

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on April 19?$-743
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET$-119
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 17?$-104
Will Hong Kong have between 150-160mm of precipitation in April?$-98
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET$-88
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C or higher on Ap$-87
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 1?$-82
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 21°C on April 29?$-77
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET$-59
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET$-53

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
1.236
Sortino
2.578
HHI
124
Diversified
EV per $1
$13.317
Kelly %
64.7%
Half-Kelly
32.4%
Top-1 market
4.9%
Top-5 markets
15.6%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
49.8
Active
Markets / Day
4.5
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
3:00 UTC
Median Gap
2.9m
between trades
Avg Gap
31.3m
between trades
Night Trading
47%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
2.83
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
2.1

Bot Detection

#6
45
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
MEDIUM
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
MEDIUM
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 174s — typical for humanSize CV 2.83 — diverse, typical for human47% at night — bot never sleeps24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 0.92 — human randomness50 trades/day — suspiciously high

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 3:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
7.9
Active DCA
<=1
41 entries
<=2
80 entries
<=5
150 entries
<=10
202 entries
<=20
237 entries
<=50
265 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)18.1%
Mid (20-55c)54.3%
High (>55c)27.6%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 79.5%

Hong Kong$17,007
Tokyo$71
Seoul$2
Other$-472

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.5
Events covered
179

Single bracket

<=1
125 brackets
<=2
154 brackets
<=3
173 brackets
<=4
178 brackets
<=5
179 brackets
<=8
179 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
4/5/2026, 5:41:13 PM1 trades$450 min
4/6/2026, 1:59:27 AM1 trades$100 min
4/6/2026, 3:24:55 AM1 trades$160 min
4/6/2026, 9:49:59 AM12 trades$5710 min
4/6/2026, 11:05:25 AM2 trades$220 min
4/6/2026, 12:30:37 PM1 trades$100 min
4/6/2026, 2:05:27 PM1 trades$620 min
4/6/2026, 2:19:21 PM5 trades$2010 min
4/6/2026, 4:33:39 PM1 trades$1530 min
4/7/2026, 1:13:09 AM1 trades$250 min
4/7/2026, 3:31:39 AM1 trades$270 min
4/7/2026, 4:10:43 AM2 trades$473 min
4/7/2026, 4:28:13 AM2 trades$485 min
4/7/2026, 4:57:55 AM3 trades$561 min
4/7/2026, 5:38:03 AM1 trades$390 min
4/7/2026, 7:18:15 AM1 trades$1490 min
4/7/2026, 7:33:51 AM1 trades$00 min
4/7/2026, 8:39:19 AM7 trades$343 min
4/7/2026, 9:12:13 AM1 trades$110 min
4/7/2026, 9:27:33 AM2 trades$371 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
03-23
04-05
04-16
04-27
05-09
05-20
05-31
06-03

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
63.4% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
27.8% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 7.9/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.5 br/event