Polydata
CreamCream1215

@CreamCream1215

#10,387100

0x01ced860d8dca5d7987579d2a2635df8520d27a2

117d· 674 markets · 4792 tradesVol: $560,8422026-07-18T10:16
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

100
Elite
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 99%20/20
Profit Factor 190.20x15/15
Sharpe 1.37415/15
Sortino 351490.61910/10
EV $+68.61410/10
HHI 6510/10
Profit Days 100%10/10
DD/Peak 0%10/10

Summary

CreamCream1215 is an experienced and active trader on Polymarket, with a strong track record evidenced by a net profit and loss (PnL) of $14,273.41 and a rank of #10387 on the global leaderboard. Over 117 days, they have executed 4,792 trades across 362 different markets, generating a total trading volume of $560,842. Their Smart Score of 100/100 places them in the elite category, highlighting consistent performance and skillful trading.

The trader shows a clear preference for weather-related markets, which make up 90% of their activity. CreamCream1215 employs a mostly manual trading style with some bot assistance, reflected in a Bot Score of 45/100, and demonstrates a contrarian approach combined with disciplined dollar-cost averaging. Their trading style favors high win rates (80.2%) and a strong profit factor of 4.47, indicating a relatively low-risk profile with consistent profitability. The sell percentage of 27% suggests a balanced approach between holding and taking profits, contributing to a stable equity trend.

CreamCream1215’s strengths include a high Sharpe ratio of 1.37 and zero maximum drawdown duration, indicating effective risk management and resilience to market volatility. Their expertise in weather markets and disciplined trading style are notable advantages. However, the reliance on a semi-automated strategy and concentrated market focus could pose risks if weather market conditions shift unexpectedly. Overall, CreamCream1215 demonstrates solid performance and strategic consistency on Polymarket.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

8
Sniper
Win Rate 99%
Profitable
PnL $+14,273
Contrarian
68% entries <$0.50
DCA Master
avg 9.7 entries/market
Weather Pro
90% weather
Win Streak
25 wins in a row
Whale
$93,741
Consistent
112/112 days

Categories

3
🌤️ WEATHER#120$14,550Vol: $549,396
CRYPTO#1,534,570$-269Vol: $10,054
🏛️ POLITICS#1,391,626$-25Vol: $400

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$14,273
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$560,842
Total Redeem
$7,628
Portfolio
$553
Predictions
674
total markets
Trades
3513B / 1279S
Daily Volume
$801
Account Age
117d
since Mar 23, 2026

Periods

#2
Today
$94
Vol: $1,764
Week
$1,045
Vol: $24,725
Month
$3,264
Vol: $77,498
All Time
$14,273
Vol: $560,842

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
99%
188W / 2L events
Realized PnL
$39,388
Win Rate
80%
195W / 48L
Profit Factor
4.47x
Avg Win
$179
Avg Loss
$-162

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $2,716 (10% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 4?$1,162
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 5?$875
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 31?$679
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 11?$666
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 7?$644
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 6?$614
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on Ma$560
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 2?$546
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 25?$545
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on May 5?$540

Top Losers

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 21?$-1,640
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on April 19?$-738
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 14?$-547
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 17?$-501
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 9?$-499
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 9?$-399
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 25?$-342
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on April 24?$-323
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 6?$-239
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 7?$-225

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
1.374
Sortino
inf
HHI
65
Diversified
EV per $1
$68.614
Kelly %
61.4%
Half-Kelly
30.7%
Top-1 market
2.8%
Top-5 markets
9.5%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
42.4
Active
Markets / Day
3.2
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
3:00 UTC
Median Gap
3.1m
between trades
Avg Gap
35.4m
between trades
Night Trading
50%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
2.44
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
2.7

Bot Detection

#6
45
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
MEDIUM
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
MEDIUM
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 189s — typical for humanSize CV 2.44 — diverse, typical for human50% at night — bot never sleeps24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 0.98 — human randomness42 trades/day — suspiciously high

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 3:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
9.7
Active DCA
<=1
32 entries
<=2
68 entries
<=5
154 entries
<=10
238 entries
<=20
318 entries
<=50
362 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)21.3%
Mid (20-55c)52.4%
High (>55c)26.4%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 83.3%

Hong Kong$28,019
Tokyo$74
Other$-1,007

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.9
Events covered
194

Single bracket

<=1
96 brackets
<=2
150 brackets
<=3
178 brackets
<=4
188 brackets
<=5
192 brackets
<=8
194 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
3/27/2026, 8:39:41 AM1 trades$50 min
3/27/2026, 8:46:25 AM1 trades$70 min
3/29/2026, 2:40:26 AM3 trades$61 min
3/29/2026, 3:23:10 AM3 trades$40 min
3/29/2026, 4:13:10 AM5 trades$50 min
3/29/2026, 4:21:22 AM1 trades$20 min
3/29/2026, 11:38:30 AM1 trades$2760 min
3/29/2026, 10:23:34 PM1 trades$10 min
3/29/2026, 10:31:12 PM1 trades$20 min
3/29/2026, 11:01:42 PM4 trades$41 min
3/29/2026, 11:09:46 PM1 trades$20 min
3/29/2026, 11:16:10 PM3 trades$33 min
3/29/2026, 11:24:46 PM2 trades$11 min
3/29/2026, 11:31:20 PM2 trades$30 min
3/29/2026, 11:41:08 PM1 trades$20 min
3/29/2026, 11:55:38 PM4 trades$313 min
3/30/2026, 12:13:50 AM2 trades$124 min
3/30/2026, 12:32:52 AM1 trades$40 min
3/30/2026, 4:28:18 AM2 trades$140 min
3/30/2026, 4:39:34 AM3 trades$271 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
03-23
04-14
05-02
05-21
06-08
06-27
07-15
07-18

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
WEATHER
90.3% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
26.7% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 9.7/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.9 br/event