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@Cumbersome-Signify

#1,980,46598

0x778138892188269153c0c3f69e48b57e8047addd

67d· 888 markets · 687 tradesVol: $21,5302026-05-14T14:43
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

98
Elite
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 87%20/20
Profit Factor 43.07x15/15
Sharpe 0.70713/15
Sortino 1.36410/10
EV $+0.67210/10
HHI 5210/10
Profit Days 84%10/10
DD/Peak 6%10/10

Summary

Cumbersome-Signify is an active manual trader on Polymarket with 687 trades across 588 markets over 107 days. Despite ranking relatively low at #1,980,465 on the global PnL leaderboard, they maintain a consistent presence with a total trading volume of $21,530. Their net profit and loss stands slightly negative at -$29.32, but their portfolio value remains stable around $28.16. Their Elite Smart Score of 98/100 indicates strong analytical skills and trading discipline.

The trader predominantly focuses on weather markets, which make up 59% of their activity, showing a preference for niche event-based prediction markets. Cumbersome-Signify exhibits a low-risk profile with a Sharpe ratio of 0.71 and a minimal sell percentage of 2%, suggesting a buy-and-hold approach. Their timing is characterized by consistency rather than frequent position changes, demonstrated by zero days of maximum drawdown duration and a high win rate of 96.1%. This approach aligns with badges like Diamond Hands and Cool Head.

Cumbersome-Signify’s key strength is their consistency and precision, evidenced by a remarkable profit factor of 43.07 and a strong win streak. However, the negative net PnL and relatively low portfolio value highlight a limited capacity for scaling profits. The low Bot Score confirms manual trading, which may limit reaction speed in volatile markets but supports thoughtful decision-making. Overall, Cumbersome-Signify is a disciplined trader with stable performance but modest financial gains on Polymarket.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

5
Sniper
Win Rate 87%
Diamond Hands
1% sell
Win Streak
148 wins in a row
Consistent
53/63 days
Cool Head
DD 6%

Categories

5
SPORTS#253,498$9Vol: $13,091
🌤️ WEATHER#235,742$-32Vol: $8,272
🏛️ POLITICS#894,450$-1Vol: $123
📈 ECONOMICS#509,654$-3Vol: $36
CRYPTO#847,154$-2Vol: $7

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-29
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$21,530
Total Redeem
$1,416
Portfolio
$28
Predictions
888
total markets
Trades
677B / 10S
Daily Volume
$14
Account Age
67d
since Mar 15, 2026

Periods

#2
Today
$-20
Vol: $3,244
Week
$-2
Vol: $3,849
Month
$-6
Vol: $4,021
All Time
$-29
Vol: $21,530

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
87%
239W / 36L events
Realized PnL
$641
Win Rate
96%
343W / 14L
Profit Factor
43.07x
Avg Win
$2
Avg Loss
$-1

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $58 (9.4% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will Levante UD win on 2026-05-12?$25
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on March 25?$18
Madrid Open: Emilio Nava vs Valentin Vacherot$14
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 12°C or below on March $11
Will AFC Bournemouth vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw?$10
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on March 17?$10
Rockets vs. Lakers$8
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 13°C on April 6?$8
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs$8
Madrid Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Jaqueline Cristian$7

Top Losers

Will Athletic Club win on 2026-04-21?$-5
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-25?$-2
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-04-26?$-2
Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-04-26?$-2
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-25?$-1
Will FC Famalicão win on 2026-04-26?$-1
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-22?$-1
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on April 1?$-0
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 18?$-0
Madrid Open: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Merida Aguilar$-0

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.707
Sortino
1.364
HHI
52
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.672
Kelly %
95.0%
Half-Kelly
47.5%
Top-1 market
5%
Top-5 markets
10.4%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
11.7
Active
Markets / Day
10.0
Active Hours
18/24
Extended
Peak Hour
10:00 UTC
Median Gap
20s
between trades
Avg Gap
1.3h
between trades
Night Trading
0%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.01
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
3.0

Bot Detection

#6
10
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
HIGH
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
MEDIUM
Median gap 20s — typical for humanSize CV 1.01 — diverse, typical for human0% at night — normal sleep pattern18/24 hours — extended daySession CV 0.80 — human randomness12 trades/day — very active

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 10:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
1.2
Single entry
<=1
532 entries
<=2
570 entries
<=5
587 entries
<=10
588 entries
<=20
588 entries
<=50
588 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)8.3%
Mid (20-55c)39%
High (>55c)52.7%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 25.4%

Other$208
Madrid$71
Paris$27
Milan$20
London$17
Wellington$16
Ankara$15
Toronto$15
Lucknow$14
Munich$13
Seattle$12
Atlanta$12
Sao Paulo$11
Buenos Aires$11
Chicago$11
Los Angeles$10
Singapore$10
Dallas$9

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.2
Events covered
495

Single bracket

<=1
412 brackets
<=2
486 brackets
<=3
494 brackets
<=4
495 brackets
<=5
495 brackets
<=8
495 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
3/16/2026, 10:42:21 AM12 trades$148 min
3/16/2026, 10:59:21 AM5 trades$42 min
3/16/2026, 11:10:59 AM2 trades$20 min
3/16/2026, 12:36:55 PM2 trades$30 min
3/16/2026, 1:42:25 PM2 trades$23 min
3/16/2026, 2:05:41 PM2 trades$35 min
3/16/2026, 3:05:17 PM2 trades$30 min
3/16/2026, 8:04:05 PM1 trades$10 min
3/16/2026, 8:28:03 PM3 trades$40 min
3/16/2026, 8:57:59 PM2 trades$63 min
3/16/2026, 9:25:01 PM2 trades$21 min
3/16/2026, 9:45:49 PM1 trades$10 min
3/16/2026, 11:06:41 PM1 trades$60 min
3/16/2026, 11:35:41 PM1 trades$10 min
3/17/2026, 9:06:15 AM1 trades$10 min
3/17/2026, 9:45:03 AM1 trades$10 min
3/17/2026, 9:54:59 AM1 trades$50 min
3/17/2026, 10:34:39 AM1 trades$50 min
3/17/2026, 10:44:37 AM1 trades$10 min
3/17/2026, 11:13:51 AM3 trades$40 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
03-16
03-26
04-06
04-16
04-26
05-10
05-21

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
58.7% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
1.5% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 1.2/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.2 br/event