DerDon

@DerDon

#2,14070

0xf797d4d1c038d1eb0593edae0e66bf8e4b2e0bf2

~513d· 3177 markets · 42523 tradesVol: $11,944,6782026-08-02 08:49:08
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

70
Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

56% (1753/3109)13.2/20
1.24x (win $486,944 / loss $393,957)5.5/15
Annualised Sharpe 1.06615/15
Sortino 2.13210/10
$+0.0481 per $1 invested2.4/10
HHI 36 (3109 markets)10/10
261/474 profitable days (55%)6.3/10
Max DD 33% of peak ($46,757 / $139,675)7.3/10

Badges

8
Profitable
PnL $+88,763
Lottery Player
43% entries < $0.20
DCA Master
Avg 12.8 entries/market
Whale
$1,933,218 invested
High Roller
$3,661/day
Win Streak
17 wins in a row
🦉Night Owl
24/24 hours active
🏗️Market Maker
93% maker orders

Categories

9
🏛️ POLITICS#3,580$10,670Vol: $4,579,500
SPORTS#14,960$2,924Vol: $3,141,948
📢 MENTIONS#44$42,328Vol: $954,479
📈 ECONOMICS#681,386$-5,370Vol: $858,005
💰 FINANCE#223$20,164Vol: $813,843
🎭 CULTURE#621$13,591Vol: $730,337
CRYPTO#9,080$5,283Vol: $536,829
💻 TECH#1,609$808Vol: $276,123
🌤️ WEATHER#4,702$207Vol: $11,354

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$88,971
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$11,944,678
Total Redeem
$46,888
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
3177
total markets
Trades
31510B / 11013S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~513d

Periods

#2
Today
$-155
Vol: $0
Week
$-8,878
Vol: $0
Month
$-1,006
Vol: $995
All Time
$88,971
Vol: $11,944,678

PnL Analysis

#3

Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology

Win Rate (events)
56%
1753W / 1356L events
Realized PnL
$88,763
Win Rate
56%
1753W / 1356L
Profit Factor
1.24x
Avg Win
$278
Avg Loss
$-293

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $82,023 (0.924075733307737% of PnL)

Top Winners

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$28,886
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?$28,147
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$24,990
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$18,315
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?$13,471
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?$11,698
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?$11,293
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?$8,232
US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026?$5,905
Will MrBeast hit 475 Million subscribers by March 31?$5,658

Top Losers

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$-14,551
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?$-13,702
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?$-13,364
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?$-11,944
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?$-10,900
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?$-10,458
US x Venezuela military engagement by January 15, 2026?$-10,349
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$-8,385
Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$-7,820
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$-6,200

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.056
Sortino
0.081
HHI
30
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.052
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
2.2%
Top-5 markets
6.5%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
80.5
Very active
Markets / Day
6.0
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
23:00 UTC
Median Gap
4.1m
between trades
Avg Gap
19.9m
between trades
Night Trading
25%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
4.10
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
20 min
Avg Trades / Session
33.4

Bot Detection

#6
70
BOT (automated trading)HIGH probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
HIGH
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 246s — normal for humanCV 4.10 — diverse sizes (human-like)25% night trades — never sleeps24/24 hours — around the clock81 trades/day — mass trading6.0 markets/day — normal93% maker — systematic market making

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 23:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
12.85
Heavy DCA

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)43.1%
Mid (20-55c)27.8%
High (>55c)29.1%

Sessions

#12
6/12/2026, 3:17:16 PM92 trades$28,55050 min
7/23/2026, 11:56:42 PM58 trades$23,1633 min
2/25/2026, 12:21:48 AM271 trades$22,560174 min
4/29/2026, 4:27:22 PM118 trades$21,502117 min
7/7/2026, 5:12:20 PM4 trades$19,9420 min
6/12/2026, 5:24:27 PM71 trades$14,43645 min
6/6/2026, 9:54:12 AM74 trades$14,07552 min
4/16/2026, 9:46:48 PM26 trades$13,3155 min
6/13/2026, 1:49:43 AM38 trades$13,1391 min
4/7/2026, 11:30:05 PM68 trades$12,91645 min
7/5/2026, 2:27:44 PM2 trades$11,0000 min
12/26/2025, 2:27:35 AM10 trades$10,77516 min
4/10/2026, 3:38:17 PM8 trades$9,7442 min
1/1/2026, 6:26:39 PM5 trades$9,3914 min
5/23/2026, 8:46:10 PM2 trades$9,3770 min
5/1/2026, 3:23:42 AM3 trades$9,1900 min
12/18/2025, 12:53:52 AM16 trades$8,45814 min
4/11/2026, 2:18:57 PM12 trades$8,4558 min
3/1/2026, 10:11:07 PM112 trades$7,65537 min
4/1/2026, 7:12:23 PM18 trades$7,00618 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
02-21
05-17
08-09
10-30
01-30
04-25

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Max drawdown: 36 days (not recovered)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
25.9% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 12.85/mkt
Entry Bias
LOW $
L43.1 / M27.8 / H29.1