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Determined-Valuable

@Determined-Valuable

#27896

0x614dc8d3542c12103d2c6a3553fd761e391d1546

716d· 1872 markets · 12905 tradesVol: $36,033,651 @MrOziPM2026-06-28T09:48
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

96
Elite
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 99%20/20
Profit Factor 330.63x15/15
Sharpe 0.60011/15
Sortino 4.87510/10
EV $+2.06410/10
HHI 11010/10
Profit Days 98%10/10
DD/Peak 0%10/10

Summary

Determined-Valuable is a highly active trader on Polymarket, ranking 278th globally with a net profit of over $619,000. Over 861 days, they have executed nearly 13,000 trades across 273 markets, accumulating a total volume exceeding $36 million. Their portfolio value stands at approximately $683,000, reflecting consistent growth and an upward equity trend. With a smart score of 96 out of 100, Determined-Valuable is recognized as an elite trader on the platform.

This trader favors a diversified approach, engaging in a wide range of markets rather than focusing on niche segments like weather. Their moderate win rate of 47.7% combined with a profit factor of 0.29 indicates a willingness to take calculated risks, often employing dollar-cost averaging as suggested by their DCA Master badge. Their sell percentage of 32% and a Sharpe ratio of 0.60 point to balanced timing strategies that aim to optimize returns while managing volatility. Determined-Valuable’s zero-day max drawdown duration suggests quick recovery from losses.

The key strengths of Determined-Valuable include high trading volume, a disciplined equity growth pattern, and strong recognition within the Polymarket community, as evidenced by multiple top badges. However, their profit factor below 1 and relatively modest Sharpe ratio highlight potential risks in profitability efficiency and risk-adjusted returns. Additionally, their low bot score confirms human decision-making, which can be both an advantage in adaptability and a risk in emotional bias.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

8
Sniper
Win Rate 99%
Profitable
PnL $+619,426
DCA Master
avg 32.3 entries/market
Win Streak
12 wins in a row
Whale
$6,625,911
Consistent
106/108 days
High Roller
$7,696/day
Cool Head
DD 0%

Categories

9
🏛️ POLITICS#78$560,424Vol: $27,100,329
🎭 CULTURE#801,234$-5,936Vol: $2,844,444
📈 ECONOMICS#2,802$976Vol: $2,119,924
📢 MENTIONS#29$62,029Vol: $1,583,572
CRYPTO#3,591$12,620Vol: $1,322,671
SPORTS#1,758,819$-8,081Vol: $328,319
💻 TECH#243,024$-2,291Vol: $232,663
💰 FINANCE#3,206$1,339Vol: $226,070
🌤️ WEATHER#667$2,633Vol: $91,067

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$619,426
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$36,033,651
Total Redeem
$628,407
Portfolio
$683,458
Predictions
1872
total markets
Trades
8825B / 4080S
Daily Volume
$7,696
Account Age
716d
since Jul 16, 2024

Periods

#2
Today
$898
Vol: $0
Week
$5,446
Vol: $0
Month
$230,795
Vol: $2,750,870
All Time
$619,426
Vol: $36,033,651

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
99%
212W / 3L events
Realized PnL
$1,080,149
Win Rate
48%
116W / 127L
Profit Factor
0.29x
Avg Win
$4,637
Avg Loss
$-14,373

Top Winners

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$73,694
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?$63,059
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?$28,200
Trump ends taxes on tips in first 100 days?$21,736
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister?$21,650
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?$19,367
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?$17,750
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?$16,094
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?$10,440
Yoon arrested by January 31?$8,128

Top Losers

Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?$-125,667
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?$-79,381
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?$-71,921
Will Khamenei leave Iran by February 28, 2026?$-71,069
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?$-68,503
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?$-55,129
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?$-53,535
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?$-51,335
Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more?$-50,535
Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland?$-47,696

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.600
Sortino
4.875
HHI
110
Diversified
EV per $1
$2.064
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
3.2%
Top-5 markets
14.1%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
18.2
Active
Markets / Day
0.4
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
21:00 UTC
Median Gap
2.2m
between trades
Avg Gap
42.5m
between trades
Night Trading
13%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
2.73
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.7

Bot Detection

#6
20
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 134s — typical for humanSize CV 2.73 — diverse, typical for human13% at night — normal sleep pattern24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.02 — human randomness18 trades/day — very active

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 21:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
32.3
Heavy DCA
<=1
19 entries
<=2
29 entries
<=5
61 entries
<=10
101 entries
<=20
153 entries
<=50
221 entries
>50
52 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)3.4%
Mid (20-55c)20.8%
High (>55c)75.7%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 42.1%

Los Angeles$9,286
Paris$-1,486
New York City$-49,479
Other$-1,245,791

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.3
Events covered
212

Single bracket

<=1
177 brackets
<=2
199 brackets
<=3
206 brackets
<=4
208 brackets
<=5
210 brackets
<=8
212 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
7/19/2024, 4:47:19 PM1 trades$5,4320 min
7/30/2024, 9:47:27 AM1 trades$710 min
7/30/2024, 9:53:43 AM1 trades$3,0000 min
7/30/2024, 10:02:45 AM3 trades$1205 min
7/30/2024, 10:15:57 AM1 trades$00 min
7/30/2024, 2:10:34 PM1 trades$2980 min
7/30/2024, 9:30:03 PM2 trades$6161 min
7/30/2024, 9:39:09 PM1 trades$5760 min
7/31/2024, 11:09:53 AM1 trades$3760 min
7/31/2024, 1:54:53 PM2 trades$802 min
7/31/2024, 4:09:07 PM1 trades$460 min
8/1/2024, 11:07:28 AM1 trades$4320 min
8/2/2024, 10:50:12 PM1 trades$2,1390 min
8/3/2024, 6:57:38 AM1 trades$1,1080 min
8/3/2024, 6:34:36 PM1 trades$8680 min
8/5/2024, 1:44:47 PM2 trades$5542 min
8/6/2024, 9:03:26 AM1 trades$6210 min
8/6/2024, 11:18:10 AM2 trades$5,3571 min
8/7/2024, 8:57:40 AM1 trades$5,7350 min
8/7/2024, 12:13:46 PM1 trades$5,5800 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
10-27
02-23
06-09
01-09
05-19

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
31.6% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 32.3/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.3 br/event