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Determined-Valuable

@Determined-Valuable

#35296

0x614dc8d3542c12103d2c6a3553fd761e391d1546

673d· 1785 markets · 10979 tradesVol: $30,249,325 @MrOziPM2026-05-15T12:43
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

96
Elite
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 98%20/20
Profit Factor 34.79x15/15
Sharpe 0.61111/15
Sortino 9593204.94110/10
EV $+1.73710/10
HHI 11510/10
Profit Days 99%10/10
DD/Peak 0%10/10

Summary

Determined-Valuable is an experienced and highly active trader on Polymarket, ranked #352 globally by net profit and boasting an elite Smart Score of 96/100. Over 861 days, they have completed 10,979 trades across 266 markets, achieving a net PnL of $413,650.15 on a total volume exceeding $30 million. Their portfolio value currently stands at $641,803.82, reflecting consistent growth and an upward equity trend.

The trading style of Determined-Valuable appears focused on high-frequency engagement with a moderate risk profile. Despite a win rate of 46.4%, their trading is characterized by disciplined dollar-cost averaging and selective selling, with 32% of positions closed. The relatively low profit factor of 0.24 and Sharpe ratio of 0.61 suggest moderate volatility management. They avoid weather markets entirely and show no prolonged drawdown periods, indicating timely entries and exits. The "Sniper" and "DCA Master" badges align with a strategy that balances precision with averaging down positions to optimize outcomes.

Strengths for Determined-Valuable include robust experience, a strong track record of profitability, and an ability to maintain upward portfolio growth without major drawdowns. The elite Smart Score underscores strategic sophistication, while their fast interface usage suggests agility in trade execution. However, the sub-50% win rate and relatively low profit factor highlight a reliance on volume and position sizing rather than consistently high individual trade returns, which could pose risks during market downturns or increased volatility.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

7
Sniper
Win Rate 98%
Profitable
PnL $+413,650
DCA Master
avg 28.2 entries/market
Win Streak
11 wins in a row
Whale
$5,637,009
Consistent
105/106 days
High Roller
$6,547/day

Categories

9
🏛️ POLITICS#126$363,899Vol: $21,975,445
🎭 CULTURE#770,899$-6,478Vol: $2,821,095
📈 ECONOMICS#2,512$1,032Vol: $2,037,740
📢 MENTIONS#22$61,452Vol: $1,580,472
CRYPTO#13,309$3,098Vol: $890,143
SPORTS#1,636,995$-5,551Vol: $258,656
💻 TECH#230,717$-2,291Vol: $232,663
💰 FINANCE#12,317$162Vol: $177,574
🌤️ WEATHER#545$2,633Vol: $91,067

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$413,650
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$30,249,325
Total Redeem
$426,441
Portfolio
$641,804
Predictions
1785
total markets
Trades
7513B / 3466S
Daily Volume
$6,547
Account Age
673d
since Jul 16, 2024

Periods

#2
Today
$3,657
Vol: $45
Week
$16,978
Vol: $223,649
Month
$43,817
Vol: $1,306,960
All Time
$413,650
Vol: $30,249,325

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
98%
214W / 4L events
Realized PnL
$960,535
Win Rate
46%
110W / 127L
Profit Factor
0.24x
Avg Win
$3,426
Avg Loss
$-12,500

Top Winners

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?$64,871
Trump ends taxes on tips in first 100 days?$21,736
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister?$21,650
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?$17,750
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?$12,677
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?$10,440
Yoon arrested by January 31?$8,054
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential E$7,881
Trump gets more black voters than in 2020?$7,817
US strikes Iran by March 8, 2026?$7,097

Top Losers

Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?$-125,667
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?$-79,381
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?$-71,921
Will Khamenei leave Iran by February 28, 2026?$-71,069
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?$-53,535
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?$-51,335
Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more?$-50,535
Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland?$-47,696
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?$-43,656
US government shutdown by October 1?$-43,275

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.611
Sortino
inf
HHI
115
Diversified
EV per $1
$1.737
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
3.8%
Top-5 markets
14.6%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
16.5
Active
Markets / Day
0.4
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
21:00 UTC
Median Gap
2.5m
between trades
Avg Gap
43.6m
between trades
Night Trading
13%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
2.78
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.7

Bot Detection

#6
20
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 150s — typical for humanSize CV 2.78 — diverse, typical for human13% at night — normal sleep pattern24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.00 — human randomness17 trades/day — very active

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 21:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
28.2
Heavy DCA
<=1
16 entries
<=2
26 entries
<=5
64 entries
<=10
108 entries
<=20
156 entries
<=50
222 entries
>50
44 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)3%
Mid (20-55c)20.5%
High (>55c)76.5%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 40.7%

Paris$1,892
New York City$-49,479
Other$-1,162,994

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.3
Events covered
205

Single bracket

<=1
172 brackets
<=2
190 brackets
<=3
198 brackets
<=4
200 brackets
<=5
204 brackets
<=8
205 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
7/19/2024, 4:47:19 PM1 trades$5,4320 min
7/30/2024, 9:47:27 AM1 trades$710 min
7/30/2024, 9:53:43 AM1 trades$3,0000 min
7/30/2024, 10:02:45 AM3 trades$1205 min
7/30/2024, 10:15:57 AM1 trades$00 min
7/30/2024, 2:10:34 PM1 trades$2980 min
7/30/2024, 9:30:03 PM2 trades$6161 min
7/30/2024, 9:39:09 PM1 trades$5760 min
7/31/2024, 11:09:53 AM1 trades$3760 min
7/31/2024, 1:54:53 PM2 trades$802 min
7/31/2024, 4:09:07 PM1 trades$460 min
8/1/2024, 11:07:28 AM1 trades$4320 min
8/2/2024, 10:50:12 PM1 trades$2,1390 min
8/3/2024, 6:57:38 AM1 trades$1,1080 min
8/3/2024, 6:34:36 PM1 trades$8680 min
8/5/2024, 1:44:47 PM2 trades$5542 min
8/6/2024, 9:03:26 AM1 trades$6210 min
8/6/2024, 11:18:10 AM2 trades$5,3571 min
8/7/2024, 8:57:40 AM1 trades$5,7350 min
8/7/2024, 12:13:46 PM1 trades$5,5800 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
10-26
01-30
05-09
07-25
03-01
06-30

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
31.6% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 28.2/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.3 br/event