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@Dramatic-Sheep

#39086

0x5739ddf8672627ce076eff5f444610a250075f1a

554d· 166 markets · 8444 tradesVol: $7,971,3952026-05-12T21:49
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

86
Elite
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 62%16/20
Profit Factor 1.99x15/15
Sharpe 0.4719/15
Sortino 0.6156/10
EV $+0.69610/10
HHI 41610/10
Profit Days 75%10/10
DD/Peak 14%10/10

Summary

Dramatic-Sheep is a highly active trader on Polymarket, ranked #390 on the global PnL leaderboard. With 8,444 trades across 166 markets and nearly 2.2 years of activity, this trader has generated a net profit of $392,495 on a total volume of almost $8 million. Their portfolio value currently stands at $525,121, supported by an elite Smart Score of 86/100, indicating strong overall performance despite a downward equity trend and a moderate Sharpe ratio of 0.47.

The trading style of Dramatic-Sheep appears to favor a high-frequency approach with a relatively low win rate of 29.9% but a substantial volume of trades. The trader shows a moderate risk profile, with a profit factor of 0.14 and no drawdown duration, suggesting disciplined risk management. Their preference does not include weather markets, and they sell 26% of positions, indicating a mix of holding and exit strategies. The badges earned, such as Sniper and Consistent, reflect precision and steady execution over time.

Dramatic-Sheep’s key strength lies in their ability to maintain profitability through consistent, high-volume trading, leveraging precision entries and disciplined risk controls. However, the declining equity trend and low profit factor highlight potential concerns about diminishing returns or increased market volatility impacting their performance. The low Bot Score suggests decisions are primarily human-driven, which may limit scalability but also allows for adaptive tactics in the dynamic Polymarket environment.

Badges

7
Sniper
Win Rate 62%
Profitable
PnL $+392,495
Win Streak
5 wins in a row
Whale
$3,382,593
Consistent
21/28 days
High Roller
$4,287/day
Cool Head
DD 14%

Categories

2
🏛️ POLITICS#119$378,230Vol: $7,753,552
🎭 CULTURE#520$14,265Vol: $217,843

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$392,495
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$7,971,395
Total Redeem
$251,184
Portfolio
$525,122
Predictions
166
total markets
Trades
6267B / 2177S
Daily Volume
$4,287
Account Age
554d
since Nov 12, 2024

Periods

#2
Today
$8,856
Vol: $4,629
Week
$16,262
Vol: $9,604
Month
$-112,796
Vol: $313,566
All Time
$392,495
Vol: $7,971,395

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
71%
81W / 33L events
Realized PnL
$430,581
Win Rate
30%
41W / 95L
Profit Factor
0.14x
Avg Win
$6,302
Avg Loss
$-19,815

Top Winners

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?$104,102
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?$42,804
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?$25,725
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?$17,985
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?$14,024
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, $12,900
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?$11,989
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy before July?$6,315
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?$5,502
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April $3,018

Top Losers

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?$-214,293
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?$-191,642
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?$-181,334
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?$-163,861
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June?$-92,625
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by August 31?$-73,688
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?$-72,303
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy in 2025?$-67,949
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025?$-66,509
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?$-65,442

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.471
Sortino
0.615
HHI
416
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.696
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
13.4%
Top-5 markets
37.1%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
15.5
Active
Markets / Day
0.3
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
15:00 UTC
Median Gap
4.7m
between trades
Avg Gap
1.1h
between trades
Night Trading
16%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
3.36
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
3 min
Avg Trades / Session
4.7

Bot Detection

#6
25
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 280s — typical for humanSize CV 3.36 — diverse, typical for human16% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 0.95 — human randomness15 trades/day — very active

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 15:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
37.8
Heavy DCA
<=1
24 entries
<=2
38 entries
<=5
62 entries
<=10
83 entries
<=20
108 entries
<=50
132 entries
>50
34 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)7.5%
Mid (20-55c)38.1%
High (>55c)54.4%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 12.8%

Other$-1,624,046

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.4
Events covered
116

Single bracket

<=1
98 brackets
<=2
104 brackets
<=3
109 brackets
<=4
112 brackets
<=5
113 brackets
<=8
116 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
11/13/2024, 3:00:58 PM2 trades$51 min
11/13/2024, 3:14:44 PM1 trades$350 min
11/13/2024, 3:25:58 PM75 trades$7942 min
11/13/2024, 3:59:18 PM2 trades$421 min
11/13/2024, 4:20:31 PM1 trades$110 min
11/13/2024, 4:32:59 PM2 trades$81 min
11/13/2024, 4:40:13 PM4 trades$167 min
11/13/2024, 4:56:25 PM2 trades$5444 min
11/13/2024, 5:05:29 PM1 trades$40 min
11/13/2024, 5:14:07 PM1 trades$210 min
11/13/2024, 5:19:41 PM8 trades$7985 min
11/28/2024, 3:51:00 AM1 trades$1,1370 min
12/2/2024, 6:02:20 PM1 trades$2,5520 min
12/8/2024, 1:56:46 AM2 trades$6053 min
12/8/2024, 2:33:13 AM1 trades$830 min
12/8/2024, 2:47:31 AM1 trades$550 min
12/8/2024, 3:05:38 AM5 trades$1,35313 min
12/8/2024, 3:35:25 AM1 trades$4130 min
12/8/2024, 3:41:03 AM2 trades$321 min
12/8/2024, 4:53:51 AM1 trades$10 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
05-31
09-30
01-31
04-12
05-11
06-30

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
25.8% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 37.8/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.4 br/event