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Fake-Guard

@Fake-Guard

#25072

0x6ffb4354cbe6e0f9989e3b55564ec5fb8646a834

734d· 12095 markets · 4698 tradesVol: $40,084,340 @RookeBrollins2026-06-26T22:47
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

72
Very Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 92%20/20
Profit Factor 0.06x0/15
Sharpe 0.65312/15
Sortino 4.88510/10
HHI 42610/10
Profit Days 96%10/10
DD/Peak 1%10/10

Summary

Fake-Guard is a highly active trader on Polymarket, ranked #250 globally by net profit and boasting a net PnL of $680,018.01. Over 879 days, Fake-Guard has executed 4,698 trades across 512 markets, accumulating a total volume exceeding $40 million. With a solid win rate of 64.8%, this trader maintains a stable portfolio value around $670,000, reflecting consistent performance.

The trading style of Fake-Guard is diversified, engaging in a wide range of markets without a specific focus on weather-related events. The trader exhibits a moderate risk profile, reflected in a Sharpe ratio of 0.65 and a short max drawdown duration. Timing appears balanced, with a relatively low sell percentage of 20%, suggesting a preference for holding positions rather than frequent flipping. Badges like "Sniper" and "Contrarian" imply a tactical approach, possibly capitalizing on market inefficiencies or contrarian opportunities.

Fake-Guard's strengths include a strong win rate and high Smart Score of 72, indicating effective decision-making on Polymarket. However, the profit factor of 0.06 is unusually low, which may point to a skewed risk-reward structure or occasional large losses. The bot score suggests human-driven trading, which aligns with the trader's adaptive style but may limit scalability. Overall, Fake-Guard demonstrates consistency and tactical acumen, though monitoring risk exposure remains important.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

10
Sniper
Win Rate 92%
Profitable
PnL $+680,018
Lottery Player
38% entries <$0.20
Contrarian
51% entries <$0.50
DCA Master
avg 7.4 entries/market
Win Streak
95 wins in a row
Whale
$7,622,363
Consistent
154/160 days
High Roller
$8,672/day
Cool Head
DD 1%

Categories

9
🏛️ POLITICS#274$179,038Vol: $9,410,932
SPORTS#351$241,375Vol: $9,396,935
CRYPTO#210$136,459Vol: $7,133,473
🎭 CULTURE#335$22,543Vol: $4,055,241
📈 ECONOMICS#529$10,720Vol: $3,284,234
📢 MENTIONS#29$61,948Vol: $2,687,516
💰 FINANCE#879$5,769Vol: $1,379,391
💻 TECH#264$6,541Vol: $1,196,850
🌤️ WEATHER#1,246$1,215Vol: $938,669

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$680,018
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$40,084,340
Total Redeem
$2,196,509
Portfolio
$670,740
Predictions
12095
total markets
Trades
3767B / 931S
Daily Volume
$8,672
Account Age
734d
since Jun 27, 2024

Periods

#2
Today
$-1,060
Vol: $44,722
Week
$-1,797
Vol: $252,579
Month
$132,276
Vol: $2,484,358
All Time
$680,018
Vol: $40,084,340

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
94%
246W / 15L events
Realized PnL
$872,302
Win Rate
65%
317W / 172L
Profit Factor
0.06x
Avg Win
$845
Avg Loss
$-27,878

Top Winners

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$116,112
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?$27,806
ATP Winston Salem - Korda vs. Fucsovics$22,742
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5$6,533
Will the US strike 3 countries in February 2026?$5,569
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany?$5,119
Trump strikes another drug boat by Sep 30?$4,121
Games Total: O/U 2.5$4,080
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31$3,932
Rays vs. Yankees$3,925

Top Losers

US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?$-953,281
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?$-441,004
US forces enter Iran by April 30?$-371,139
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025?$-254,705
Will Eastleigh FC win on 2026-04-18?$-231,737
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherl$-230,457
Colts vs. Chiefs$-199,480
Will Ethereum dip to $3,000 by December 31?$-150,768
Will Pope Leo XIV be the #1 searched person on Google this year?$-138,342
Will Trump and Zelenskyy shake hands for between 4 and 6 seconds?$-131,158

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.653
Sortino
4.885
HHI
426
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.596
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
12.5%
Top-5 markets
37.6%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
7.8
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.9
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
9:00 UTC
Median Gap
2.2m
between trades
Avg Gap
51.5m
between trades
Night Trading
20%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
6.47
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
2.4

Bot Detection

#6
20
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

5 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 130s — typical for humanSize CV 6.47 — diverse, typical for human20% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.15 — human randomness

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 9:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
7.4
Active DCA
<=1
238 entries
<=2
298 entries
<=5
393 entries
<=10
444 entries
<=20
479 entries
<=50
500 entries
>50
9 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)38.2%
Mid (20-55c)14.1%
High (>55c)47.7%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 42.9%

Toronto$2,344
Seattle$230
Los Angeles$150
Houston$3
Delaney$2
Dallas$1
Up or Down$-1,419
Paris$-6,452
New York City$-8,097
Madrid$-17,119
Miami$-78,106
Other$-4,418,777

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.4
Events covered
377

Single bracket

<=1
321 brackets
<=2
354 brackets
<=3
364 brackets
<=4
366 brackets
<=5
369 brackets
<=8
374 brackets
>8
3 brackets

Sessions

#12
11/4/2024, 3:02:42 PM1 trades$10 min
11/4/2024, 3:12:42 PM3 trades$360 min
11/4/2024, 3:27:00 PM3 trades$180 min
11/4/2024, 3:51:23 PM4 trades$132 min
11/4/2024, 4:18:04 PM5 trades$154 min
11/4/2024, 4:27:56 PM1 trades$640 min
11/6/2024, 11:23:05 AM2 trades$2,1420 min
11/6/2024, 11:44:46 AM1 trades$1,7420 min
11/6/2024, 12:03:38 PM1 trades$3120 min
11/6/2024, 12:26:02 PM4 trades$1,0112 min
11/6/2024, 12:53:39 PM2 trades$7955 min
11/6/2024, 3:47:12 PM1 trades$70 min
11/6/2024, 10:00:18 PM1 trades$90 min
11/9/2024, 12:58:45 AM1 trades$240 min
11/9/2024, 1:13:28 AM2 trades$7,6591 min
11/13/2024, 7:00:01 PM1 trades$4,5550 min
11/13/2024, 7:33:58 PM3 trades$1401 min
11/13/2024, 7:40:27 PM1 trades$200 min
11/13/2024, 8:44:37 PM3 trades$7202 min
11/13/2024, 8:58:03 PM1 trades$1000 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
02-18
07-30
09-13
11-26
03-15
07-01
08-03

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
19.8% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 7.4/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.4 br/event