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@Firsthand-Commerce

#2,716,51989

0xd154d336febe3a19fd1fc57be8ff0a0ac10d9c74

50d· 1698 markets · 8658 tradesVol: $1,031,7062026-05-16T06:49
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

89
Elite
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 47%9/20
Profit Factor 2.82x15/15
Sharpe 0.82015/15
Sortino 4.54010/10
EV $+1.03410/10
HHI 11110/10
Profit Days 80%10/10
DD/Peak 2%10/10

Summary

Firsthand-Commerce is an active trader on Polymarket, with 8,658 trades across 753 markets over 271 days. Despite a high total volume exceeding $1 million, the trader currently holds a negative net PnL of approximately $15,969 and ranks #2,716,519 globally on the Polymarket profit and loss leaderboard. Their Smart Score of 89/100 places them in the elite category, indicating sophisticated trading behavior, while a portfolio value above $57,000 suggests substantial capital deployment.

The trading style of Firsthand-Commerce appears highly automated, supported by a bot score of 70/100 and badges such as "Bot" and "Contrarian." They maintain a flat equity trend with zero sell percentage, implying a buy-and-hold approach or long-term positions without active profit-taking. Their Sharpe ratio of 0.82 indicates moderate risk-adjusted returns, but a 0% win rate and zero profit factor highlight challenges in generating consistent profits. The absence of weather market exposure suggests a focus on other event categories within Polymarket.

Key strengths for Firsthand-Commerce include high trading consistency and significant market diversification, as reflected by their numerous trades and markets engaged. However, the persistent negative PnL and lack of realized gains raise concerns about the effectiveness of their contrarian, automated strategy. The stable equity trend and no recorded drawdown duration suggest minimal volatility in portfolio value, but the negative returns warrant careful monitoring of their risk management approach.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

6
Contrarian
55% entries <$0.50
Diamond Hands
0% sell
Bot
Score 70/100
Whale
$125,051
Consistent
40/50 days
Cool Head
DD 2%

Categories

2
SPORTS#1,644,242$-16,100Vol: $1,030,876
🏛️ POLITICS#52,650$131Vol: $830

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-15,969
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$1,031,706
Total Redeem
$0
Portfolio
$57,304
Predictions
1698
total markets
Trades
8658B / 0S
Daily Volume
$461
Account Age
50d
since Apr 1, 2026

Periods

#2
Today
$-244
Vol: $2,006
Week
$-629
Vol: $22,597
Month
$1,252
Vol: $110,954
All Time
$-15,969
Vol: $1,031,706

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
49%
380W / 403L events
Realized PnL
$113,791
Win Rate
0%
0W / 8L
Profit Factor
0x
Avg Win
$0
Avg Loss
$-1,636

Top Winners

Top Losers

Warriors vs. Kings$-4,891
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14?$-4,400
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw?$-2,157
Will Chongqing Tonglianglong FC win on 2026-04-21?$-695
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-04-12?$-316
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-04-05?$-288
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-04-05?$-287
Will CF Pachuca win on 2026-04-18?$-54

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.820
Sortino
4.540
HHI
111
Diversified
EV per $1
$1.034
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
6.2%
Top-5 markets
18.1%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
206.4
Very active
Markets / Day
18.0
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
15:00 UTC
Median Gap
32s
between trades
Avg Gap
5.3m
between trades
Night Trading
16%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.02
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
11 min
Avg Trades / Session
15.4

Bot Detection

#6
70
BOT (automated trading)HIGH probability

8 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
HIGH
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
HIGH
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
HIGH
Median gap 32s — typical for humanSize CV 1.02 — diverse, typical for human16% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.01 — human randomness206 trades/day — automation18 markets/day — mass coverage1247 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 15:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
11.5
Heavy DCA
<=1
141 entries
<=2
233 entries
<=5
389 entries
<=10
520 entries
<=20
631 entries
<=50
732 entries
>50
21 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)16.1%
Mid (20-55c)46.2%
High (>55c)37.7%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 75.6%

Beijing$0
Shanghai$0
Milan$0
Los Angeles$0
Chicago$0
Atlanta$0
Seoul$0
Paris$0
Miami$0
Chengdu$0
Lucknow$0
Chongqing$-695
Madrid$-2,157
Other$-10,238

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.3
Events covered
580

Single bracket

<=1
451 brackets
<=2
536 brackets
<=3
580 brackets
<=4
580 brackets
<=5
580 brackets
<=8
580 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
4/4/2026, 3:10:29 AM19 trades$21025 min
4/4/2026, 3:42:17 AM19 trades$1495 min
4/4/2026, 3:53:01 AM4 trades$604 min
4/4/2026, 4:03:33 AM29 trades$21240 min
4/4/2026, 4:56:41 AM7 trades$485 min
4/4/2026, 5:24:59 AM13 trades$457 min
4/4/2026, 5:53:51 AM1 trades$20 min
4/4/2026, 7:42:27 AM1 trades$40 min
4/4/2026, 7:51:21 AM1 trades$180 min
4/4/2026, 11:08:49 AM4 trades$908 min
4/4/2026, 11:23:39 AM1 trades$80 min
4/4/2026, 11:32:55 AM3 trades$333 min
4/4/2026, 11:44:25 AM1 trades$560 min
4/4/2026, 11:54:21 AM2 trades$433 min
4/4/2026, 12:03:49 PM35 trades$60538 min
4/4/2026, 12:51:11 PM2 trades$270 min
4/4/2026, 12:56:55 PM112 trades$1,87564 min
4/4/2026, 2:07:43 PM27 trades$91020 min
4/4/2026, 2:33:15 PM158 trades$3,391114 min
4/4/2026, 4:32:25 PM2 trades$220 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
04-04
04-12
04-20
04-28
05-07
05-15
05-21
12-31

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
0% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 11.5/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.3 br/event