Polydata

@Firsthand-Commerce

#2,920,64856

0xd154d336febe3a19fd1fc57be8ff0a0ac10d9c74

88d· 3806 markets · 8628 tradesVol: $2,289,1522026-06-27T11:56
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

56
Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 24%0/20
Profit Factor 1.81x13/15
Sharpe 0.2274/15
Sortino 0.1602/10
EV $+0.71010/10
HHI 22510/10
Profit Days 73%10/10
DD/Peak 34%7/10

Summary

Firsthand-Commerce is an experienced and moderately active trader on Polymarket, with 8,628 trades across 1,236 markets over 271 days. Despite a large total trading volume exceeding $2.2 million, the trader currently holds a negative net PnL of approximately $22,279 and ranks #2,920,648 on the global leaderboard. The portfolio value stands at just over $10,000, reflecting a downward equity trend. The trader’s Smart Score is 56, indicating a good overall skill level, and a Bot Score of 65 suggests a semi-automated trading style.

This trader favors a high number of diverse markets, although no exposure to weather markets is evident. The win rate of 57.8% combined with a profit factor of 1.56 shows a modestly profitable strategy leaning toward frequent entries and exits. Firsthand-Commerce appears to adopt a contrarian and dollar-cost averaging approach, as indicated by their badges, which may contribute to a disciplined but slow-moving trading style. The zero sell percentage suggests a buy-and-hold or long-only bias, supported by diamond hands and whale badges, signaling high conviction and risk tolerance.

Firsthand-Commerce’s key strengths include consistent participation and a solid win rate, which are positive in a challenging environment. However, the significant net loss, low Sharpe ratio of 0.23, and declining equity trend highlight potential risks related to drawdowns and capital preservation. The absence of drawdown duration indicates no prolonged losing streaks, but the trader’s semi-bot strategy might require adjustment to improve profitability on Polymarket.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

6
Contrarian
58% entries <$0.50
Diamond Hands
1% sell
DCA Master
avg 6.9 entries/market
Win Streak
10 wins in a row
Whale
$264,594
Consistent
63/86 days

Categories

2
SPORTS#1,758,373$-19,258Vol: $1,400,477
🏛️ POLITICS#53,516$138Vol: $830

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-22,279
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$2,289,152
Total Redeem
$116,457
Portfolio
$10,099
Predictions
3806
total markets
Trades
8584B / 44S
Daily Volume
$976
Account Age
88d
since Apr 1, 2026

Periods

#2
Today
$-704
Vol: $0
Week
$20,318
Vol: $140,720
Month
$-8,753
Vol: $896,880
All Time
$-22,279
Vol: $2,289,152

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
27%
259W / 697L events
Realized PnL
$166,530
Win Rate
58%
203W / 148L
Profit Factor
1.56x
Avg Win
$174
Avg Loss
$-152

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $14,684 (115.5% of PnL)

Top Winners

Spread: Portugal (-1.5)$5,935
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$4,918
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?$3,830
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$3,576
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?$3,200
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$1,350
Mallorca Championships: Yannick Hanfmann vs Adolfo Vallejo$800
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG (BO3) - Super Dracul$586
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters Londo$573
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG - Map 2 Winner$457

Top Losers

Warriors vs. Kings$-4,891
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14?$-4,400
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw?$-2,157
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Pla$-1,109
Will Chongqing Tonglianglong FC win on 2026-04-21?$-695
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner$-537
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner$-452
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London$-404
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo$-384
Plovdiv: Tommaso Compagnucci vs Maxim Mrva$-322

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.227
Sortino
0.160
HHI
225
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.710
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
6.1%
Top-5 markets
26.4%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
104.5
Very active
Markets / Day
15.0
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
15:00 UTC
Median Gap
1.1m
between trades
Avg Gap
11.7m
between trades
Night Trading
14%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
8.29
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
11 min
Avg Trades / Session
14.8

Bot Detection

#6
65
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

8 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
MEDIUM
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
HIGH
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
HIGH
Median gap 68s — typical for humanSize CV 8.29 — diverse, typical for human14% at night — normal sleep pattern24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 0.93 — human randomness104 trades/day — automation15 markets/day — mass coverage1146 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 15:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
6.9
Active DCA
<=1
389 entries
<=2
591 entries
<=5
879 entries
<=10
1046 entries
<=20
1147 entries
<=50
1218 entries
>50
18 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)20%
Mid (20-55c)44.4%
High (>55c)35.6%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 94.7%

Other$15,517
London$43
Beijing$0
Shanghai$0
Milan$0
Los Angeles$0
Chicago$0
Atlanta$0
Seoul$0
Paris$0
Miami$0
Toronto$0
Dallas$0
Houston$0
Seattle$0
Chongqing$-695
Madrid$-2,157

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.4
Events covered
874

Single bracket

<=1
642 brackets
<=2
771 brackets
<=3
852 brackets
<=4
869 brackets
<=5
874 brackets
<=8
874 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
4/4/2026, 3:10:29 AM19 trades$21025 min
4/4/2026, 3:42:17 AM19 trades$1495 min
4/4/2026, 3:53:01 AM4 trades$604 min
4/4/2026, 4:03:33 AM29 trades$21240 min
4/4/2026, 4:56:41 AM7 trades$485 min
4/4/2026, 5:24:59 AM13 trades$457 min
4/4/2026, 5:53:51 AM1 trades$20 min
4/4/2026, 7:42:27 AM1 trades$40 min
4/4/2026, 7:51:21 AM1 trades$180 min
4/4/2026, 11:08:49 AM4 trades$908 min
4/4/2026, 11:23:39 AM1 trades$80 min
4/4/2026, 11:32:55 AM3 trades$333 min
4/4/2026, 11:44:25 AM1 trades$560 min
4/4/2026, 11:54:21 AM2 trades$433 min
4/4/2026, 12:03:49 PM35 trades$60538 min
4/4/2026, 12:51:11 PM2 trades$270 min
4/4/2026, 12:56:55 PM112 trades$1,87564 min
4/4/2026, 2:07:43 PM27 trades$91020 min
4/4/2026, 2:33:15 PM146 trades$3,206114 min
4/4/2026, 4:32:25 PM2 trades$220 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
04-04
04-18
05-02
05-19
06-02
06-16
12-31

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
0.5% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 6.9/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.4 br/event