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Fixed-Dredger

@Fixed-Dredger

#4,18093

0x6770bf688b8121331b1c5cfd7723ebd4152545fb

488d· 712 markets · 3017 tradesVol: $1,477,592 @GreekGamblerPM2026-06-06T04:50
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

93
Elite
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 88%20/20
Profit Factor 3.31x15/15
Sharpe 0.4518/15
Sortino 3.05810/10
EV $+0.79210/10
HHI 45710/10
Profit Days 89%10/10
DD/Peak 2%10/10

Summary

Fixed-Dredger is a moderately active trader on Polymarket with 3,017 trades over 664 days. Ranked #4180 on the global PnL leaderboard, they have generated a net profit of $35,048.83 from a total trading volume of nearly $1.48 million. Their smart score of 93/100 places them in the elite category, indicating consistent performance and strong trading skills. The trader’s portfolio value currently stands at $58,707.01, reflecting steady growth.

This trader favors a diversified approach, having traded 341 different markets with a high win rate of 79.0% and a profit factor of 2.57, suggesting a balanced risk-reward profile. Fixed-Dredger appears to use a manual trading style, as indicated by a low bot score, and exhibits a contrarian and sniper strategy, targeting precise opportunities rather than high-frequency trades. Their sell percentage is moderate at 33%, and they show no exposure to weather markets, focusing instead on other event types. The Sharpe ratio of 0.45 indicates moderate risk-adjusted returns with an upward equity trend.

Fixed-Dredger’s key strengths include strong consistency, a disciplined approach to risk, and a proven ability to profit across many markets, supported by badges such as Profitable and DCA Master. However, their relatively low Sharpe ratio and the manual nature of their trading suggest potential vulnerability to market volatility and scalability limitations. Maintaining an upward trajectory without significant drawdowns highlights their risk management capabilities, though continued monitoring is advisable in rapidly changing market conditions.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

9
Sniper
Win Rate 88%
Profitable
PnL $+35,049
Lottery Player
31% entries <$0.20
Contrarian
54% entries <$0.50
DCA Master
avg 5.9 entries/market
Win Streak
81 wins in a row
Whale
$371,929
Consistent
91/102 days
Cool Head
DD 2%

Categories

9
🎭 CULTURE#825$9,313Vol: $784,313
🏛️ POLITICS#5,288$6,221Vol: $341,200
📢 MENTIONS#164$11,412Vol: $154,016
CRYPTO#18,907$2,056Vol: $111,361
SPORTS#7,505$5,614Vol: $39,453
📈 ECONOMICS#3,148$762Vol: $26,567
💰 FINANCE#614,749$-561Vol: $8,381
💻 TECH#6,238$77Vol: $3,795
🌤️ WEATHER#6,577$92Vol: $905

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$35,049
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$1,477,592
Total Redeem
$229,097
Portfolio
$58,707
Predictions
712
total markets
Trades
2027B / 990S
Daily Volume
$560
Account Age
488d
since Feb 23, 2025

Periods

#2
Today
$-54
Vol: $964
Week
$1,957
Vol: $97,747
Month
$1,957
Vol: $97,747
All Time
$35,049
Vol: $1,477,592

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
93%
150W / 12L events
Realized PnL
$51,110
Win Rate
79%
210W / 55L
Profit Factor
2.57x
Avg Win
$216
Avg Loss
$-321

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $10,041 (36.3% of PnL)

Top Winners

Netanyahu out by March 31?$5,002
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?$2,661
Set Handicap: Valentova (-1.5) vs Birrell (+1.5)$2,378
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026?$2,246
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?$1,624
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?$1,530
Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during the Fo$1,529
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?$1,283
Will Bulgaria win the televote for Eurovision 2026?$1,180
Will the US conduct a cyberattack on Iran by March 31?$1,144

Top Losers

Will Trump say "Elon" during his NATO speech?$-2,115
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 25+ times dur$-1,826
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025?$-1,690
Will Trump say "Hottest" during the 2026 State of the Union addre$-1,321
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?$-1,163
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his 4th of July remar$-630
Will Trump say "Cuba" during the State of the Union address?$-622
Will Trump praise Zohran Mamdani on Friday?$-558
Will Trump say "Israel" or "Gaza" 7+ times during Saudi PM events$-547
Will Leavitt say "President" 60+ times during the next press brie$-528

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.451
Sortino
3.058
HHI
457
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.792
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
16.1%
Top-5 markets
38.2%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
6.8
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.8
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
20:00 UTC
Median Gap
2.3m
between trades
Avg Gap
55.7m
between trades
Night Trading
6%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
4.83
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.9

Bot Detection

#6
15
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability

5 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 137s — typical for humanSize CV 4.84 — diverse, typical for human5% at night — normal sleep pattern24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.08 — human randomness

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 20:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
5.9
Active DCA
<=1
113 entries
<=2
181 entries
<=5
269 entries
<=10
306 entries
<=20
324 entries
<=50
333 entries
>50
8 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)30.7%
Mid (20-55c)27.3%
High (>55c)42%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 54.3%

Other$27,100
Los Angeles$420
Miami$373
New York City$82
Madrid$-325

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
2.1
Events covered
162

Moderate coverage

<=1
106 brackets
<=2
130 brackets
<=3
143 brackets
<=4
148 brackets
<=5
150 brackets
<=8
156 brackets
>8
6 brackets

Sessions

#12
3/20/2025, 4:25:42 PM1 trades$460 min
3/20/2025, 4:37:50 PM1 trades$350 min
3/31/2025, 7:29:55 PM2 trades$2162 min
3/31/2025, 9:06:30 PM1 trades$140 min
3/31/2025, 9:23:50 PM1 trades$910 min
4/1/2025, 10:44:35 AM1 trades$10 min
6/5/2025, 9:50:12 AM1 trades$500 min
6/5/2025, 10:17:56 AM2 trades$2282 min
6/5/2025, 4:42:40 PM1 trades$3600 min
6/8/2025, 7:23:07 PM1 trades$80 min
6/10/2025, 2:00:45 PM1 trades$190 min
6/10/2025, 2:20:49 PM1 trades$1660 min
6/10/2025, 4:23:24 PM1 trades$780 min
6/12/2025, 7:18:25 AM2 trades$1050 min
6/12/2025, 3:55:45 PM1 trades$370 min
6/14/2025, 11:43:59 AM6 trades$2887 min
6/14/2025, 12:55:50 PM1 trades$180 min
6/14/2025, 1:01:38 PM1 trades$1580 min
6/14/2025, 1:17:56 PM1 trades$10 min
6/14/2025, 1:54:50 PM3 trades$545 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
05-30
10-09
01-22
03-21
05-14

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
32.8% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 5.9/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 2.1 br/event