Polydata
Flashy-Bid

@Flashy-Bid

#68796

0xc4086b708cd3a50880b7069add1a1a80000f4675

834d· 1591 markets · 15523 tradesVol: $40,402,469 @JJo39992026-06-27T10:54
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

96
Elite
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 96%20/20
Profit Factor 18.14x15/15
Sharpe 0.58911/15
Sortino 38.20210/10
EV $+4.23010/10
HHI 18210/10
Profit Days 96%10/10
DD/Peak 0%10/10

Summary

Flashy-Bid is an experienced and active trader on Polymarket, ranked #687 globally with a net profit of $268,021.77. Over 1005 days, Flashy-Bid has executed 15,523 trades across 274 markets, generating a total volume exceeding $40 million. Their portfolio value stands at $150,323.61, supported by a strong Smart Score of 96 out of 100, placing them among the elite traders on the platform.

This trader shows a preference for diverse markets, avoiding weather-related ones entirely, and maintains a nearly even split between buying and selling at 48% sell percentage. Flashy-Bid’s win rate is just under 50%, with a profit factor below 1.0 (0.90), suggesting moderate risk-taking and a strategy that balances gains and losses carefully. The consistent upward equity trend and zero-day max drawdown indicate disciplined timing and effective risk management. Their badges, including Sniper and DCA Master, imply a style combining precision entries with systematic averaging down.

Flashy-Bid’s key strength lies in sustained profitability and a robust trading volume supporting liquidity and market insight. However, the profit factor under 1.0 and a Sharpe ratio of 0.59 indicate some vulnerability to volatility and downside risks. While the bot score suggests a human-driven approach, the relatively modest win rate means Flashy-Bid must continually adapt to market shifts to maintain their position on Polymarket.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

8
Sniper
Win Rate 96%
Profitable
PnL $+268,022
DCA Master
avg 30.8 entries/market
Win Streak
16 wins in a row
Whale
$10,003,101
Consistent
104/108 days
High Roller
$9,953/day
Cool Head
DD 0%

Categories

9
🏛️ POLITICS#296$168,544Vol: $26,744,977
🎭 CULTURE#330$22,862Vol: $3,517,865
📈 ECONOMICS#285$23,716Vol: $3,215,508
CRYPTO#3,430$13,134Vol: $2,268,432
💻 TECH#185$9,609Vol: $1,410,976
📢 MENTIONS#81$24,697Vol: $843,552
💰 FINANCE#1,628$2,964Vol: $819,187
🌤️ WEATHER#680$2,547Vol: $626,953
SPORTS#1,699,617$-735Vol: $421,008

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$268,022
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$40,402,469
Total Redeem
$1,173,385
Portfolio
$150,324
Predictions
1591
total markets
Trades
8032B / 7491S
Daily Volume
$9,953
Account Age
834d
since Mar 16, 2024

Periods

#2
Today
$-5
Vol: $0
Week
$-11
Vol: $0
Month
$20,343
Vol: $2,454,816
All Time
$268,022
Vol: $40,402,469

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
97%
197W / 6L events
Realized PnL
$645,202
Win Rate
49%
122W / 129L
Profit Factor
0.9x
Avg Win
$16,644
Avg Loss
$-17,400

Top Winners

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$293,593
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$244,603
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?$182,173
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$180,415
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?$149,622
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$145,772
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?$91,830
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated?$85,762
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?$77,118
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?$56,180

Top Losers

Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?$-134,514
Trump deploys National Guard in D.C. by Monday?$-112,490
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?$-108,057
Thailand strikes Cambodia by Friday?$-104,540
Major cyberattack on Iran in June?$-78,554
Will Andrew Cuomo win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New Yor$-74,549
Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?$-69,093
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?$-67,261
Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea?$-66,859
Weed rescheduled in 2025?$-59,762

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.589
Sortino
38.202
HHI
183
Diversified
EV per $1
$4.230
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
6.8%
Top-5 markets
21.7%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
18.8
Active
Markets / Day
0.3
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
11:00 UTC
Median Gap
1.8m
between trades
Avg Gap
39.7m
between trades
Night Trading
26%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
3.01
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
0 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.2

Bot Detection

#6
35
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 108s — typical for humanSize CV 3.01 — diverse, typical for human26% at night — bot never sleeps24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 0.96 — human randomness19 trades/day — very active

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 11:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
30.8
Heavy DCA
<=1
19 entries
<=2
42 entries
<=5
86 entries
<=10
129 entries
<=20
172 entries
<=50
221 entries
>50
40 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)3.4%
Mid (20-55c)18%
High (>55c)78.6%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 32.7%

Paris$7,581
Seoul$0
Gaza$-12,676
Other$-73,850
New York City$-135,160

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.4
Events covered
202

Single bracket

<=1
163 brackets
<=2
188 brackets
<=3
193 brackets
<=4
198 brackets
<=5
199 brackets
<=8
202 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
3/16/2024, 10:35:41 AM1 trades$10 min
3/16/2024, 10:42:06 AM1 trades$8,1520 min
3/23/2024, 12:21:51 PM1 trades$3,0000 min
3/25/2024, 7:05:56 AM1 trades$2,2570 min
3/31/2024, 9:57:47 AM1 trades$280 min
4/3/2024, 7:21:08 PM1 trades$1,6530 min
5/22/2024, 1:51:04 PM2 trades$5223 min
5/22/2024, 2:00:04 PM1 trades$1740 min
6/18/2024, 8:38:50 AM1 trades$1,0110 min
6/30/2024, 3:25:29 AM3 trades$2202 min
6/30/2024, 3:33:53 AM3 trades$2351 min
7/1/2024, 6:43:35 AM3 trades$4803 min
7/1/2024, 6:52:04 AM1 trades$40 min
7/1/2024, 6:58:32 AM1 trades$3160 min
7/1/2024, 8:04:16 PM1 trades$8600 min
7/2/2024, 3:31:43 AM1 trades$1,6800 min
7/8/2024, 1:43:09 PM1 trades$3650 min
7/8/2024, 10:05:40 PM2 trades$1660 min
7/8/2024, 11:40:05 PM1 trades$320 min
7/9/2024, 9:39:32 AM1 trades$4100 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
08-31
11-30
04-30
11-04
04-07

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0.4% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
48.3% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 30.8/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.4 br/event