Polydata

@Flickering-Commuter

#2,46030

0x2334195baf2db920ff6e8940dcbc031451f99a9f

88d· 4259 markets · 42536 tradesVol: $10,581,3922026-06-27T04:55
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

30
Below Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 99%20/20
Profit Factor 0.05x0/15
HHI 4510/10
Profit Days 8%0/10

Summary

Flickering-Commuter is an active trader on Polymarket, ranking #2460 on the global PnL leaderboard with a net profit of $68,271.29. Over 86 days, they have executed 42,536 trades across 354 markets, accumulating a total volume of over $10.5 million. Despite the high activity, their portfolio value is currently very low at $0.25, and their Smart Score is below average at 30/100.

This trader’s strategy appears highly automated, supported by a strong Bot Score of 75/100, indicating reliance on algorithmic trading. Flickering-Commuter has a contrarian style with a low win rate of 17.7% and a profit factor of 0.05, suggesting they frequently take high-risk positions. Their trades do not involve weather markets, and they maintain positions without selling, consistent with a diamond hands approach. The equity trend is upward, implying recent improvements despite a negative Sharpe ratio of -1.28 and no drawdown duration.

Flickering-Commuter’s strengths lie in their high-volume, automated, and contrarian trading style, which has yielded notable net profits on Polymarket. However, the low win rate, poor profit factor, and negative risk-adjusted returns indicate significant risks. The minimal portfolio value and reliance on bots raise concerns about sustainability and capital management, making the trader’s future performance uncertain.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

8
Sniper
Win Rate 99%
Profitable
PnL $+68,271
Contrarian
74% entries <$0.50
Diamond Hands
0% sell
Bot
Score 75/100
Win Streak
11 wins in a row
Whale
$615,884
High Roller
$7,154/day

Categories

2
CRYPTO#521$68,419Vol: $10,579,792
SPORTS#1,614,559$-148Vol: $1,600

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$68,271
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$10,581,392
Total Redeem
$55,992
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
4259
total markets
Trades
42394B / 142S
Daily Volume
$7,154
Account Age
88d
since Apr 1, 2026

Periods

#2
Today
$6,862
Vol: $83,675
Week
$9,282
Vol: $383,032
Month
$23,488
Vol: $1,028,837
All Time
$68,271
Vol: $10,581,392

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
99%
250W / 2L events
Realized PnL
$603,019
Win Rate
18%
55W / 256L
Profit Factor
0.05x
Avg Win
$540
Avg Loss
$-2,177

Top Winners

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11AM ET$2,737
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2AM ET$2,554
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 5AM ET$2,193
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET$1,722
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 2AM ET$1,678
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET$1,429
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET$1,389
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET$1,358
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET$1,167
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET$935

Top Losers

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET$-7,135
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET$-5,988
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET$-5,932
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET$-5,364
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET$-5,326
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET$-4,913
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET$-4,894
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET$-4,864
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET$-4,691
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET$-4,656

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-1.275
Sortino
-1.461
HHI
45
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.864
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
1.2%
Top-5 markets
4.8%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
494.1
Very active
Markets / Day
4.1
Active Hours
22/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
6:00 UTC
Median Gap
2s
between trades
Avg Gap
5.6m
between trades
Night Trading
60%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
2.58
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
7 min
Avg Trades / Session
166.5

Bot Detection

#6
75
BOT (automated trading)HIGH probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
HIGH
Night Activity
MEDIUM
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
HIGH
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
55% < 3s — suspicious speedSize CV 2.58 — diverse, typical for human60% at night — bot never sleeps22/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.71 — human randomness494 trades/day — automation

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 6:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
119.8
Heavy DCA
<=1
28 entries
<=2
41 entries
<=5
49 entries
<=10
54 entries
<=20
72 entries
<=50
115 entries
>50
239 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)24.2%
Mid (20-55c)55.3%
High (>55c)20.5%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 48%

Other$-527,739

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1
Events covered
351

Single bracket

<=1
349 brackets
<=2
350 brackets
<=3
351 brackets
<=4
351 brackets
<=5
351 brackets
<=8
351 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
4/2/2026, 2:41:37 AM58 trades$8282 min
4/2/2026, 4:15:29 AM304 trades$1,9575 min
4/2/2026, 4:25:45 AM239 trades$2,2124 min
4/2/2026, 4:40:33 AM191 trades$2,8995 min
4/3/2026, 12:37:57 AM47 trades$9745 min
4/3/2026, 3:50:09 AM137 trades$2,4945 min
4/3/2026, 4:35:37 AM270 trades$4,2304 min
4/3/2026, 5:08:25 AM129 trades$1,5042 min
4/3/2026, 6:03:55 AM41 trades$2,0641 min
4/4/2026, 2:43:27 AM8 trades$1,1442 min
4/4/2026, 2:55:21 AM57 trades$5555 min
4/4/2026, 5:04:49 AM173 trades$2,4485 min
4/4/2026, 5:54:55 AM267 trades$6,85215 min
4/4/2026, 7:03:07 AM66 trades$1,82712 min
4/4/2026, 8:00:09 AM124 trades$2,1305 min
4/4/2026, 10:54:27 AM84 trades$1,7896 min
4/4/2026, 11:05:15 AM104 trades$1,7315 min
4/5/2026, 12:16:47 AM165 trades$2,15212 min
4/5/2026, 12:44:01 AM56 trades$3711 min
4/5/2026, 1:12:51 AM708 trades$10,80332 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
04-02
04-09
04-15
04-22
04-28
05-05
06-27

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
0.3% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 119.8/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1 br/event