FogCaster

@FogCaster

#2,941,67229

0x71d3ab191eeca5eac4c377230c5736af5d02e130

~10d· 17 markets · 145 tradesVol: $85,0832026-08-24 17:07:04
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

29
Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

59% (10/17)14.4/20
0.93x (win $1,458 / loss $1,569)1.6/15
Annualised Sharpe -0.6480/15
Sortino -0.8240/10
$-0.0213 per $1 invested0/10
HHI 1118 (17 markets)6.9/10
9/16 profitable days (56%)6.6/10
Max DD 823% of peak ($782 / $95)0/10

Badges

2
DCA Master
Avg 8.5 entries/market
Win Streak
6 wins in a row

Categories

2
🌤️ WEATHER#301,015$-753Vol: $32,275
SPORTS#1,787,222$-336Vol: $2,667

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-853
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$85,083
Total Redeem
$0
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
17
total markets
Trades
56B / 89S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~10d

Periods

#2
Month
$-972
Vol: $80,985
All Time
$-853
Vol: $85,083

PnL Analysis

#3

Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology

Win Rate (events)
59%
10W / 7L events
Realized PnL
$-853
Win Rate
59%
10W / 7L
Profit Factor
0.93x
Avg Win
$146
Avg Loss
$-224

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $906 (1.0616578003796489% of PnL)

Top Winners

Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group C$356
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5)$281
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs DN SOOPers - Game 3 Winner$270
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Spirit (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group A$206
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group D$129
Counter-Strike: Wildcard vs paiN (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group D$78
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs LNG Esports - Game 1 Winner$65
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 30?$43
Will Nongshim RedForce Win KeSPA Cup 2026?$18
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner$12

Top Losers

Counter-Strike: 9z vs magic (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group D$-500
LoL: Leviatan Esports vs RED Canids - Game 2 Winner$-427
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 1 Winner$-235
LoL: Leviatan Esports vs RED Canids (BO3) - CBLOL Regular Season$-200
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs MOUZ (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group C$-195
LoL: Shark Attack vs SU Esports (BO3) - TCL Play-Ins$-8
Cincinnati Open: Lorenzo Musetti vs Frances Tiafoe$-5

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.033
Sortino
-0.043
HHI
1113
Moderate
EV per $1
$-0.021
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
18.6%
Top-5 markets
65.9%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
6.3
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.7
Active Hours
18/24
Extended
Peak Hour
13:00 UTC
Median Gap
33.9m
between trades
Avg Gap
2.7h
between trades
Night Trading
7%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.17
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
44
Avg Duration
0 min
Avg Trades / Session
3.3

Bot Detection

#6
5
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 2036s — normal for humanCV 1.17 — diverse sizes (human-like)7% night trades — normal pattern18/24 hours — extended activity6 trades/day — normal0.7 markets/day — normal39% maker — normal mix

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 13:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
8.53
Active DCA

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)1.8%
Mid (20-55c)8.9%
High (>55c)89.3%

Sessions

#12
8/11/2026, 12:34:27 PM2 trades$1,1080 min
8/15/2026, 9:09:33 PM2 trades$1,0050 min
8/14/2026, 12:45:04 PM2 trades$5550 min
8/15/2026, 1:45:42 PM2 trades$4780 min
8/15/2026, 11:35:49 AM4 trades$4352 min
8/15/2026, 6:00:25 PM2 trades$4350 min
8/11/2026, 10:31:27 AM2 trades$4150 min
8/15/2026, 11:21:15 AM4 trades$3901 min
8/14/2026, 2:11:36 AM4 trades$3673 min
8/20/2026, 12:57:48 PM3 trades$3300 min
8/15/2026, 8:37:49 AM2 trades$3190 min
8/15/2026, 5:02:01 PM6 trades$2660 min
8/10/2026, 9:47:07 PM6 trades$2601 min
8/15/2026, 12:31:00 PM5 trades$2390 min
8/10/2026, 9:10:24 PM7 trades$2332 min
8/13/2026, 7:59:16 AM3 trades$1750 min
8/16/2026, 1:54:33 PM16 trades$1724 min
8/16/2026, 7:45:51 AM2 trades$1560 min
8/13/2026, 8:05:55 AM3 trades$1520 min
8/20/2026, 10:40:06 AM3 trades$1450 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
2026-07-30 12:00:00
2026-08-11 03:00:00
2026-08-12 20:30:00
2026-08-13 15:00:00
2026-08-14 23:00:00
2026-08-15 17:00:00
2026-08-15 22:50:00
2026-08-20 23:00:00

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
5.9% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
61.4% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 8.53/mkt
Entry Bias
HIGH $
L1.8 / M8.9 / H89.3