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Forsaken-Outhouse

@Forsaken-Outhouse

#83493

0x47ab026767cc320ac6e62f6ec747d59cf4d795df

1576d· 1583 markets · 14455 tradesVol: $25,762,7752026-06-23T11:29
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

93
Elite
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 85%20/20
Profit Factor 5.85x15/15
Sharpe 0.4428/15
Sortino 2.85110/10
EV $+0.90010/10
HHI 21310/10
Profit Days 86%10/10
DD/Peak 1%10/10

Summary

Forsaken-Outhouse is a highly active trader on Polymarket, ranked #834 on the global profit and loss leaderboard with a net PnL of $221,544.02. Over 1,750 days of activity, they have executed 14,455 trades across 287 markets, generating a substantial total volume of over $25.7 million. Their portfolio value currently stands at $336,725.20, reflecting consistent growth and an upward equity trend. The trader holds an elite smart score of 93/100, indicating strong overall performance.

This trader exhibits a balanced strategy with a moderate risk profile, reflected in a 43.6% win rate and a Sharpe ratio of 0.44. Forsaken-Outhouse prefers a diverse range of markets but notably does not engage with weather markets. Their timing pattern shows disciplined trade execution, with a relatively low sell percentage of 27%, suggesting a mix of holding and active trading. The combination of manual and semi-automated trading methods is indicated by a bot score of 45/100, representing a hybrid approach.

Forsaken-Outhouse’s key strengths include a steady upward equity trend and a max drawdown duration of zero days, implying effective risk management and resilience during market fluctuations. Their elite smart score and badges like Sniper and Profitable showcase consistent profitability and precision. However, their relatively low profit factor of 0.03 and moderate Sharpe ratio point to potential vulnerability during volatile periods, which traders should consider when analyzing their activity on Polymarket.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

7
Sniper
Win Rate 85%
Profitable
PnL $+221,544
Win Streak
13 wins in a row
Whale
$7,850,829
Consistent
101/118 days
High Roller
$4,486/day
Cool Head
DD 1%

Categories

9
🏛️ POLITICS#362$140,291Vol: $15,056,268
🎭 CULTURE#269$28,146Vol: $3,415,636
📈 ECONOMICS#359$17,530Vol: $2,521,119
CRYPTO#1,180$33,712Vol: $2,202,533
💻 TECH#348$5,026Vol: $1,008,795
SPORTS#1,737,109$-11,157Vol: $757,338
💰 FINANCE#1,764$2,694Vol: $447,514
📢 MENTIONS#485$3,399Vol: $311,647
🌤️ WEATHER#3,971$238Vol: $20,930

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$221,544
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$25,762,775
Total Redeem
$838,659
Portfolio
$336,725
Predictions
1583
total markets
Trades
10586B / 3869S
Daily Volume
$4,486
Account Age
1576d
since Mar 2, 2022

Periods

#2
Today
$-9,861
Vol: $0
Week
$475
Vol: $13,741
Month
$9,480
Vol: $1,000,999
All Time
$221,544
Vol: $25,762,775

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
85%
224W / 39L events
Realized PnL
$314,866
Win Rate
44%
86W / 111L
Profit Factor
0.03x
Avg Win
$1,398
Avg Loss
$-40,777

Top Winners

Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?$20,948
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?$10,711
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?$8,275
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?$7,277
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping$5,500
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?$4,574
Taylor Swift pregnant in 2025?$4,328
Will Xavier Becerra advance from the 2026 California Governor pri$4,222
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?$4,018
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?$3,391

Top Losers

US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?$-422,629
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?$-357,762
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025?$-232,100
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?$-230,144
Will d4vd be the #1 searched person on Google this year?$-215,609
US forces enter Iran by April 30?$-198,230
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?$-197,760
Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)?$-188,616
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?$-174,191
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?$-148,862

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.442
Sortino
2.851
HHI
213
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.900
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
6%
Top-5 markets
23.8%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
32.6
Active
Markets / Day
0.6
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
19:00 UTC
Median Gap
3.5m
between trades
Avg Gap
35.5m
between trades
Night Trading
24%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
3.83
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
3.4

Bot Detection

#6
45
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 208s — typical for humanSize CV 3.83 — diverse, typical for human24% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 0.97 — human randomness33 trades/day — suspiciously high343 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 19:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
36.9
Heavy DCA
<=1
31 entries
<=2
44 entries
<=5
78 entries
<=10
109 entries
<=20
153 entries
<=50
222 entries
>50
65 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)12%
Mid (20-55c)8.8%
High (>55c)79.2%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 31.1%

Warsh$218
Los Angeles$58
Denver$0
San Francisco$0
New York City$-5,354
Other$-4,400,954

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.4
Events covered
202

Single bracket

<=1
151 brackets
<=2
184 brackets
<=3
196 brackets
<=4
198 brackets
<=5
200 brackets
<=8
201 brackets
>8
1 brackets

Sessions

#12
4/5/2025, 8:08:48 PM1 trades$1150 min
4/5/2025, 11:17:40 PM1 trades$00 min
4/6/2025, 3:44:40 AM1 trades$1100 min
4/9/2025, 2:54:59 PM1 trades$20 min
4/9/2025, 3:00:49 PM1 trades$1680 min
4/30/2025, 8:00:44 PM1 trades$4,6000 min
4/30/2025, 10:13:40 PM1 trades$420 min
5/1/2025, 6:20:28 PM6 trades$3,3608 min
5/6/2025, 4:23:40 PM1 trades$1900 min
5/8/2025, 9:28:39 AM1 trades$4,6000 min
5/15/2025, 1:58:21 AM1 trades$980 min
5/15/2025, 2:09:59 AM2 trades$2132 min
5/15/2025, 2:23:50 AM2 trades$6111 min
5/16/2025, 4:55:45 PM1 trades$1740 min
5/16/2025, 7:33:34 PM2 trades$1860 min
5/18/2025, 1:16:35 PM1 trades$190 min
5/20/2025, 12:46:30 AM1 trades$2220 min
5/22/2025, 6:09:12 PM1 trades$4,7000 min
6/4/2025, 11:33:48 PM1 trades$7200 min
6/5/2025, 10:31:31 AM1 trades$4,9900 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
03-31
08-31
11-28
03-15
05-21
12-31

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
26.8% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 36.9/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.4 br/event