Polydata

@Fredi9999

#280

0x1f2dd6d473f3e824cd2f8a89d9c69fb96f6ad0cf

697d· 45 markets · 10510 tradesVol: $76,611,3172026-05-19T17:24
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

80
Very Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 61%15/20
Profit Factor 9.19x15/15
Sharpe 0.2545/15
Sortino 9.41810/10
EV $+1.58510/10
HHI 9198/10
Profit Days 60%7/10
DD/Peak 2%10/10

Summary

Fredi9999 is a highly active and successful trader on Polymarket, currently ranked #2 on the global PnL leaderboard. With over 10,500 trades across 43 markets and a net profit of more than $16.6 million, Fredi9999 has demonstrated significant trading volume and profitability within 149 days of activity. Their Smart Score of 80/100 reflects very good trading skill, and the upward equity trend highlights consistent growth despite a relatively modest Sharpe ratio of 0.25.

Fredi9999’s trading style appears to be contrarian and focused on high-impact markets, as indicated by badges like "Contrarian" and "Sniper." The trader has a low sell percentage of 3%, suggesting a preference for holding positions longer, supported by the "Diamond Hands" badge. The semi-bot score of 50/100 implies a combination of automated and manual decision-making. Their win rate is 25.6%, which is low, but offset by a high profit factor of 4.43, indicating that winning trades generate substantially more profit than losses.

The key strength of Fredi9999 lies in their ability to manage risk effectively while maximizing gains, reflected in a zero-day max drawdown duration and a strong profit factor. However, the low Sharpe ratio and win rate could signal periods of volatility and risk exposure. The absence of weather market trades suggests a focus on other event categories, which may limit diversification. Overall, Fredi9999’s performance on Polymarket is impressive but may involve significant drawdowns and reliance on strategic timing.

Badges

7
Sniper
Win Rate 61%
Profitable
PnL $+16,619,507
Contrarian
60% entries <$0.50
Diamond Hands
3% sell
Whale
$12,964,261
High Roller
$87,008/day
Cool Head
DD 2%

Categories

3
🏛️ POLITICS#2$16,660,339Vol: $76,276,298
🎭 CULTURE#781,358$-41,168Vol: $334,234
CRYPTO#46,352$336Vol: $785

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$16,619,507
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$76,611,317
Total Redeem
$32,897,411
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
45
total markets
Trades
10223B / 287S
Daily Volume
$87,008
Account Age
697d
since Jun 22, 2024

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
73%
22W / 8L events
Realized PnL
$16,619,507
Win Rate
26%
11W / 32L
Profit Factor
4.43x
Avg Win
$2,412,093
Avg Loss
$-187,071

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $24,320,035 (118.4% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?$19,011,972
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential E$4,528,479
Will a Republican win the popular vote and the Presidency? $779,583
Will a Republican win Pennsylvania Presidential Election?$722,569
Will a Democrat win Pennsylvania Presidential Election?$440,165
Will a Republican win Michigan Presidential Election?$366,532
Will a Democrat win Michigan Presidential Election?$317,180
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote?$191,618
Will a Republican win Wisconsin Presidential Election?$95,862
Will a Democrat win Wisconsin Presidential Election?$78,729

Top Losers

Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?$-1,973,484
Will Nikki Haley win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential El$-1,526,951
Will Ron DeSantis win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential E$-1,040,056
If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?$-273,034
RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?$-215,924
Will a Democrat win the popular vote and a Republican win the Pre$-150,989
Favorite to win on Polymarket day before election?$-137,056
Will any other Republican Politician win the popular vote in the $-120,917
Will Nikki Haley win the 2024 US Presidential Election?$-111,763
Which party wins 2024 US Presidential Election?$-77,198

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.254
Sortino
9.418
HHI
919
Moderate
EV per $1
$1.585
Kelly %
9.7%
Half-Kelly
4.8%
Top-1 market
17.1%
Top-5 markets
59.4%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
128.8
Very active
Markets / Day
0.5
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
9:00 UTC
Median Gap
28s
between trades
Avg Gap
7.0m
between trades
Night Trading
19%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
14.54
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
2 min
Avg Trades / Session
2.5

Bot Detection

#6
50
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
HIGH
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
HIGH
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 28s — typical for humanSize CV 14.54 — diverse, typical for human19% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.04 — human randomness129 trades/day — automation

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 9:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
237.7
Heavy DCA
<=1
2 entries
<=2
5 entries
<=5
5 entries
<=10
8 entries
<=20
15 entries
<=50
22 entries
>50
21 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)22.6%
Mid (20-55c)58.2%
High (>55c)19.2%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 65.1%

Other$20,546,768

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.5
Events covered
29

Single bracket

<=1
21 brackets
<=2
27 brackets
<=3
27 brackets
<=4
27 brackets
<=5
29 brackets
<=8
29 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
8/3/2024, 3:47:11 PM1 trades$100 min
8/3/2024, 4:09:47 PM3 trades$5636 min
8/3/2024, 4:26:07 PM2 trades$191 min
8/3/2024, 4:48:08 PM1 trades$1000 min
8/3/2024, 4:57:38 PM4 trades$5838 min
8/3/2024, 5:11:02 PM2 trades$1744 min
8/3/2024, 5:20:50 PM1 trades$130 min
8/3/2024, 5:33:22 PM2 trades$1873 min
8/3/2024, 6:04:34 PM1 trades$540 min
8/3/2024, 6:25:22 PM1 trades$4950 min
8/3/2024, 7:14:22 PM1 trades$490 min
8/3/2024, 7:41:42 PM2 trades$691 min
8/7/2024, 5:00:12 AM1 trades$564,7170 min
8/12/2024, 10:07:03 PM1 trades$16,0490 min
8/12/2024, 10:13:51 PM1 trades$33,3010 min
8/13/2024, 2:33:51 PM3 trades$26,7069 min
8/13/2024, 2:51:09 PM2 trades$581 min
8/13/2024, 2:58:17 PM6 trades$1103 min
8/13/2024, 3:06:53 PM4 trades$5,3105 min
8/13/2024, 3:18:37 PM6 trades$21,2565 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
08-04
08-12
08-22
08-31
10-27
11-04
11-08
12-31

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
2.7% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 237.7/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.5 br/event