Polydata

@Fredi9999

#280

0x1f2dd6d473f3e824cd2f8a89d9c69fb96f6ad0cf

741d· 45 markets · 10528 tradesVol: $76,611,3172026-07-01T03:35
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

80
Very Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 61%15/20
Profit Factor 9.19x15/15
Sharpe 0.2545/15
Sortino 9.41810/10
EV $+1.57410/10
HHI 9128/10
Profit Days 60%7/10
DD/Peak 2%10/10

Summary

Fredi9999 is one of the most active and successful traders on Polymarket, currently ranked #2 on the global PnL leaderboard. Over 149 days, they have executed 10,528 trades across 45 markets, generating a net profit of over $16.6 million from a total volume exceeding $76.6 million. Their Smart Score of 80/100 reflects very good trading performance, supported by a profit factor of 4.42 and an upward equity trend, although their Sharpe ratio is relatively low at 0.25.

Fredi9999’s strategy leans toward high-volume, high-turnover trading with a contrarian style, as indicated by their top badges and a low win rate of 24.4%. They appear to favor selective markets rather than weather-related ones, with minimal selling (only 3%) and a mix of bot-assisted and manual trades. Their ability to hold positions (Diamond Hands) and time entries precisely (Sniper badge) suggests a focus on capturing large moves rather than frequent small wins.

The main strengths of Fredi9999 include their impressive profit factor and consistent upward equity trend, signaling effective risk management and strong market insight. However, the low Sharpe ratio and win rate indicate a higher-risk profile that relies on large payoffs from fewer successful trades. The semi-bot trading approach also introduces potential automation risks, but the zero max drawdown duration suggests robust drawdown control.

Badges

7
Sniper
Win Rate 61%
Profitable
PnL $+16,619,507
Contrarian
60% entries <$0.50
Diamond Hands
3% sell
Whale
$13,027,117
High Roller
$87,430/day
Cool Head
DD 2%

Categories

3
🏛️ POLITICS#2$16,660,339Vol: $76,276,298
🎭 CULTURE#803,607$-41,168Vol: $334,234
CRYPTO#49,635$336Vol: $785

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$16,619,507
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$76,611,317
Total Redeem
$32,897,411
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
45
total markets
Trades
10241B / 287S
Daily Volume
$87,430
Account Age
741d
since Jun 22, 2024

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
73%
22W / 8L events
Realized PnL
$16,619,507
Win Rate
24%
11W / 34L
Profit Factor
4.42x
Avg Win
$2,410,099
Avg Loss
$-176,528

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $24,320,035 (118.6% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?$19,011,972
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential E$4,528,479
Will a Republican win the popular vote and the Presidency? $779,583
Will a Republican win Pennsylvania Presidential Election?$722,563
Will a Democrat win Pennsylvania Presidential Election?$440,165
Will a Republican win Michigan Presidential Election?$366,261
Will a Democrat win Michigan Presidential Election?$317,180
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote?$169,956
Will a Republican win Wisconsin Presidential Election?$95,862
Will a Democrat win Wisconsin Presidential Election?$78,729

Top Losers

Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?$-1,973,484
Will Nikki Haley win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential El$-1,526,951
Will Ron DeSantis win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential E$-1,040,056
If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?$-276,393
RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?$-216,108
Will a Democrat win the popular vote and a Republican win the Pre$-150,989
Favorite to win on Polymarket day before election?$-138,435
Will any other Republican Politician win the popular vote in the $-120,917
Will Nikki Haley win the 2024 US Presidential Election?$-111,763
Which party wins 2024 US Presidential Election?$-76,199

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.254
Sortino
9.418
HHI
913
Moderate
EV per $1
$1.574
Kelly %
8.3%
Half-Kelly
4.1%
Top-1 market
17%
Top-5 markets
59.2%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
129.0
Very active
Markets / Day
0.6
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
9:00 UTC
Median Gap
28s
between trades
Avg Gap
7.0m
between trades
Night Trading
19%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
14.48
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
2 min
Avg Trades / Session
2.5

Bot Detection

#6
50
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
HIGH
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
HIGH
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 28s — typical for humanSize CV 14.48 — diverse, typical for human19% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.04 — human randomness129 trades/day — automation

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 9:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
227.6
Heavy DCA
<=1
2 entries
<=2
5 entries
<=5
5 entries
<=10
9 entries
<=20
17 entries
<=50
24 entries
>50
21 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)22.5%
Mid (20-55c)58.3%
High (>55c)19.1%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 65.1%

Other$20,509,141

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.5
Events covered
30

Single bracket

<=1
21 brackets
<=2
28 brackets
<=3
28 brackets
<=4
28 brackets
<=5
30 brackets
<=8
30 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
8/3/2024, 3:47:11 PM1 trades$100 min
8/3/2024, 4:09:47 PM3 trades$5636 min
8/3/2024, 4:26:07 PM2 trades$191 min
8/3/2024, 4:48:08 PM1 trades$1000 min
8/3/2024, 4:57:38 PM4 trades$5838 min
8/3/2024, 5:11:02 PM2 trades$1744 min
8/3/2024, 5:20:50 PM1 trades$130 min
8/3/2024, 5:33:22 PM2 trades$1873 min
8/3/2024, 6:04:34 PM1 trades$540 min
8/3/2024, 6:25:22 PM1 trades$4950 min
8/3/2024, 7:14:22 PM1 trades$490 min
8/3/2024, 7:41:42 PM2 trades$691 min
8/7/2024, 5:00:12 AM1 trades$564,7170 min
8/12/2024, 10:07:03 PM1 trades$16,0490 min
8/12/2024, 10:13:51 PM1 trades$33,3010 min
8/13/2024, 2:33:51 PM3 trades$26,7069 min
8/13/2024, 2:51:09 PM2 trades$581 min
8/13/2024, 2:58:17 PM6 trades$1103 min
8/13/2024, 3:06:53 PM4 trades$5,3105 min
8/13/2024, 3:18:37 PM6 trades$21,2565 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
08-04
08-12
08-22
08-31
10-27
11-04
11-08
12-31

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
2.7% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 227.6/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.5 br/event