Frosty-Dog

@Frosty-Dog

#230,64777

0x4e5dcefd5a5f8a19e97a6e73be7ce503bd4fe74d

~48d· 44 markets · 398 tradesVol: $55,8092026-09-10 21:14:40
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

77
Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

68% (25/37)18.8/20
1.61x (win $286 / loss $178)10.1/15
Annualised Sharpe 2.93815/15
Sortino 3.94610/10
$+0.0594 per $1 invested3/10
HHI 1008 (37 markets)7.5/10
19/26 profitable days (73%)10/10
Max DD 58% of peak ($126 / $216)2.4/10

Badges

8
Sniper
Win rate 68%
Profitable
PnL $+115
Lottery Player
61% entries < $0.20
DCA Master
Avg 14.5 entries/market
Consistent
19/26 profitable days
Win Streak
6 wins in a row
🦉Night Owl
22/24 hours active
🏗️Market Maker
78% maker orders

Categories

4
🏛️ POLITICS#63,601$104Vol: $53,862
₿ CRYPTO#276,731$6Vol: $1,485
🌤️ WEATHER#70,087$0Vol: $240
📈 ECONOMICS#151,575$0Vol: $222

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$111
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$55,809
Total Redeem
$0
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
44
total markets
Trades
152B / 246S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~48d

Periods

#2
Today
$1
Vol: $0
Week
$1
Vol: $0
Month
$-3
Vol: $400
All Time
$111
Vol: $55,809

PnL Analysis

#3

Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology

Win Rate (events)
68%
25W / 12L events
Realized PnL
$115
Win Rate
68%
25W / 12L
Profit Factor
1.61x
Avg Win
$11
Avg Loss
$-22

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $168 (1.452804021842767% of PnL)

Top Winners

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?$64
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?$55
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by March 31, 2026?$49
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?$31
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31?$23
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?$17
US forces enter Iran by March 31?$15
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?$6
Will Robert Golob be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?$5
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of March?$4

Top Losers

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?$-99
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?$-37
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National Assembly election?$-25
Will Trump visit China by March 31?$-10
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?$-4
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?$-2
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in March 2026?$-2
Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by March 27?$-1

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.151
Sortino
0.101
HHI
2122
Moderate
EV per $1
$0.043
Kelly %
30.8%
Half-Kelly
15.4%
Top-1 market
35.9%
Top-5 markets
83.3%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
1.7
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.2
Active Hours
22/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
10:00 UTC
Median Gap
8.2m
between trades
Avg Gap
1.2h
between trades
Night Trading
3%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
0.83
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
2 min
Avg Trades / Session
3.9

Bot Detection

#6
20
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 492s — normal for humanCV 0.83 — diverse sizes (human-like)3% night trades — normal pattern22/24 hours — around the clock2 trades/day — normal0.2 markets/day — normal78% maker — frequent liquidity provider

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 10:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
14.54
Heavy DCA

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)61.2%
Mid (20-55c)21.7%
High (>55c)17.1%

Sessions

#12
3/16/2026, 9:06:45 PM25 trades$24122 min
6/11/2026, 5:30:58 PM2 trades$2230 min
3/16/2026, 10:24:41 PM7 trades$1485 min
5/7/2026, 8:53:19 PM2 trades$1200 min
6/19/2026, 10:33:32 AM2 trades$1000 min
3/6/2026, 9:04:19 PM3 trades$852 min
3/16/2026, 4:41:43 AM1 trades$690 min
8/9/2026, 9:23:54 AM4 trades$650 min
6/14/2026, 4:51:34 PM9 trades$640 min
6/11/2026, 12:25:42 PM3 trades$620 min
6/15/2026, 6:30:22 PM8 trades$600 min
3/17/2026, 7:29:03 PM3 trades$581 min
3/15/2026, 4:32:03 PM2 trades$514 min
12/25/2025, 7:12:43 PM3 trades$504 min
3/17/2026, 4:02:49 PM5 trades$504 min
5/4/2026, 7:51:44 AM4 trades$501 min
6/28/2026, 7:12:35 PM2 trades$500 min
3/15/2026, 6:24:07 PM3 trades$496 min
3/26/2026, 2:15:27 PM2 trades$481 min
3/15/2026, 7:39:31 PM10 trades$4615 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
12-26
01-15
02-25
03-11
03-18
03-25
06-11

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Max drawdown: 77 days (not recovered)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
61.8% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 14.54/mkt
Entry Bias
LOW $
L61.2 / M21.7 / H17.1