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Grave-Coconut

@Grave-Coconut

#2,724,58734

0x986b121c40e715167dde178b8520bf132a57bdc6

189d· 20504 markets · 15013 tradesVol: $50,559,1092026-05-16T08:38
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

34
Below Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 100%20/20
Profit Factor 0.17x0/15
HHI 6710/10
Profit Days 45%4/10

Summary

Grave-Coconut is a moderately active trader on Polymarket, having completed 15,013 trades across 818 markets over 163 days. Despite a high win rate of 81.4% and an upward equity trend, the trader currently holds a negative net PnL of approximately $-294,000 and is ranked #2,724,587 globally. The overall smart score of 34/100 places Grave-Coconut below average relative to other traders on the platform.

The trading style of Grave-Coconut appears to focus on high-frequency activity, as evidenced by the large volume of $50.5 million traded and a semi-automated approach combining bot and manual strategies. Their low sell percentage of 7% and badges like Diamond Hands and DCA Master suggest a preference for holding positions and dollar-cost averaging rather than quick exits. The negative Sharpe ratio (-0.50) and low profit factor (0.17) indicate a high-risk profile with returns not compensating adequately for volatility.

Grave-Coconut’s key strength lies in consistency and persistence, demonstrated by a strong win rate and recognition as a sniper with a win streak badge. However, the significant negative net PnL, poor risk-adjusted returns, and zero portfolio value highlight substantial risks. The combination of high volume but low profitability signals potential issues with market timing or trade sizing that could undermine long-term success on Polymarket.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

6
Sniper
Win Rate 100%
Diamond Hands
7% sell
DCA Master
avg 17.1 entries/market
Win Streak
560 wins in a row
Whale
$4,438,242
High Roller
$27,284/day

Categories

4
CRYPTO#1,511,505$-162,459Vol: $35,651,097
SPORTS#1,647,282$-107,667Vol: $14,278,023
🌤️ WEATHER#253,911$-202Vol: $535,198
🏛️ POLITICS#1,542,125$-23,667Vol: $94,790

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-293,994
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$50,559,109
Total Redeem
$316,757
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
20504
total markets
Trades
14002B / 1011S
Daily Volume
$27,284
Account Age
189d
since Nov 13, 2025

Periods

#2
Today
$24
Vol: $1,306
Week
$-793
Vol: $218,332
Month
$-25,449
Vol: $1,213,202
All Time
$-293,994
Vol: $50,559,109

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
100%
247W / 0L events
Realized PnL
$310,926
Win Rate
81%
657W / 150L
Profit Factor
0.17x
Avg Win
$299
Avg Loss
$-7,800

Top Winners

Lakers vs. Clippers$15,750
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5)$15,560
LoL: JD Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO5)$8,309
T20 World Cup: England vs India$7,893
LoL: Oh My God vs LNG Esports (BO3)$6,361
T20 World Cup: India vs Zimbabwe$6,164
Miami vs. Indiana$6,054
LoL: LGD Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3)$5,496
Florida International vs. UTSA Roadrunners$4,215
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Delhi Capitals$3,963

Top Losers

T20 World Cup: Afghanistan vs Canada (Game 1)$-57,924
LoL: Gen.G vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs$-49,236
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-01-04?$-40,348
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET$-38,133
T20 World Cup: India vs Pakistan (Game 1)$-31,411
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET$-30,093
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Chennai Sup$-29,794
T20 World Cup: Sri Lanka vs Pakistan$-27,871
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET$-25,783
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET$-24,895

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.497
Sortino
-0.452
HHI
67
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.220
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
1.5%
Top-5 markets
7.1%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
92.3
Very active
Markets / Day
5.0
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
1:00 UTC
Median Gap
6s
between trades
Avg Gap
12.2m
between trades
Night Trading
29%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
5.20
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
3 min
Avg Trades / Session
26.2

Bot Detection

#6
65
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
HIGH
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
HIGH
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
58% < 10s — regular intervalSize CV 5.20 — diverse, typical for human29% at night — bot never sleeps24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.40 — human randomness92 trades/day — mass trading

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 1:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
17.1
Heavy DCA
<=1
77 entries
<=2
172 entries
<=5
457 entries
<=10
596 entries
<=20
661 entries
<=50
728 entries
>50
90 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)29.3%
Mid (20-55c)0.1%
High (>55c)70.6%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 60.3%

Miami$8,152
Hong Kong$2,113
Lucknow$605
Other$-984,480

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1
Events covered
815

Single bracket

<=1
812 brackets
<=2
815 brackets
<=3
815 brackets
<=4
815 brackets
<=5
815 brackets
<=8
815 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
12/4/2025, 2:32:55 PM1 trades$2,1120 min
12/5/2025, 4:25:33 PM4 trades$4,8263 min
12/6/2025, 3:18:37 PM42 trades$11,5812 min
12/8/2025, 1:36:39 AM51 trades$16,8277 min
12/8/2025, 2:37:35 AM14 trades$11,3385 min
12/8/2025, 9:06:29 AM14 trades$16,7573 min
12/10/2025, 12:49:24 AM9 trades$6,5490 min
12/10/2025, 12:55:34 AM11 trades$3,9720 min
12/11/2025, 3:08:29 AM53 trades$21,3062 min
12/11/2025, 8:52:39 AM46 trades$14,2607 min
12/12/2025, 2:37:40 PM29 trades$16,4914 min
12/14/2025, 4:57:35 AM13 trades$24,5192 min
12/14/2025, 5:12:11 AM1 trades$24,9750 min
12/14/2025, 10:20:41 AM19 trades$18,2214 min
12/14/2025, 2:14:03 PM9 trades$9,7203 min
12/14/2025, 2:23:03 PM8 trades$4,9974 min
12/14/2025, 2:35:25 PM46 trades$17,82310 min
12/14/2025, 3:38:25 PM2 trades$4,2822 min
12/15/2025, 12:33:31 AM1 trades$19,8150 min
12/15/2025, 2:07:11 AM38 trades$16,4181 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
12-04
12-24
01-11
02-21
03-08
04-12
05-15

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
6.7% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 17.1/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1 br/event