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Grumpy-Urn

@Grumpy-Urn

#1,25681

0x08458f7e9d2858027de579e4c3ca305475496b6f

547d· 2877 markets · 13563 tradesVol: $22,721,227 @GollumGekko12026-06-06T10:57
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

81
Very Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 57%14/20
Profit Factor 3.23x15/15
Sharpe 0.3036/15
Sortino 2.70910/10
EV $+0.82510/10
HHI 34210/10
Profit Days 56%7/10
DD/Peak 2%10/10

Summary

Grumpy-Urn is an experienced Polymarket trader ranked #1256 on the global PnL leaderboard with a net profit of $127,761.89. Over 754 days, they have executed 13,563 trades across 480 markets, generating a total volume exceeding $22.7 million. Their portfolio value stands at $204,870.82, reflecting consistent growth supported by an upward equity trend. With a Smart Score of 81/100, Grumpy-Urn demonstrates strong trading performance and reliability within Polymarket.

This trader employs a moderately active trading style, maintaining a win rate of 52.6% and a profit factor of 2.95, indicating effective risk-reward management. Their Sharpe ratio of 0.30 suggests moderate risk-adjusted returns, while a max drawdown duration of zero days highlights disciplined risk controls. Grumpy-Urn’s sell percentage of 45% indicates a balanced approach between holding and liquidating positions. The absence of weather market trades suggests focus on other event categories, and their semi-bot score implies a combination of automated and manual strategies.

Grumpy-Urn’s strengths include steady profitability, high trading volume, and an ability to capitalize on market opportunities with a disciplined approach, as reflected by badges like “Profitable” and “DCA Master.” However, the relatively low Sharpe ratio points to potential volatility in returns, and the semi-automated trading style may introduce risks if bot parameters or manual decisions are not consistently optimized. Overall, Grumpy-Urn’s data shows a well-rounded Polymarket trader with solid performance and room for refinement in risk management.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

6
Profitable
PnL $+127,762
DCA Master
avg 17.0 entries/market
Win Streak
8 wins in a row
Whale
$1,425,996
High Roller
$1,891/day
Cool Head
DD 2%

Categories

9
🏛️ POLITICS#490$94,823Vol: $16,229,255
🎭 CULTURE#926$8,310Vol: $1,867,254
CRYPTO#6,907$6,682Vol: $1,638,240
📈 ECONOMICS#447$12,775Vol: $1,356,725
💰 FINANCE#1,364$3,343Vol: $620,789
💻 TECH#1,686$646Vol: $460,768
SPORTS#1,531,199$-110Vol: $265,092
📢 MENTIONS#1,850$603Vol: $71,202
🌤️ WEATHER#2,651$396Vol: $16,674

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$127,762
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$22,721,227
Total Redeem
$109,423
Portfolio
$204,871
Predictions
2877
total markets
Trades
7422B / 6141S
Daily Volume
$1,891
Account Age
547d
since Dec 27, 2024

Periods

#2
Today
$-1,667
Vol: $27,996
Week
$1,442
Vol: $392,132
Month
$1,442
Vol: $387,154
All Time
$127,762
Vol: $22,721,227

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
61%
212W / 138L events
Realized PnL
$255,366
Win Rate
53%
30W / 27L
Profit Factor
2.95x
Avg Win
$3,249
Avg Loss
$-1,225

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $55,485 (86.2% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?$20,004
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination$19,992
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?$15,488
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nominati$12,012
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nominat$10,020
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?$5,157
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?$2,972
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?$2,285
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?$2,013
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$1,832

Top Losers

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?$-5,718
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?$-4,275
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?$-2,949
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$-2,491
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?$-2,317
Will Ali Khamenei be the next leader out before 2027?$-2,053
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?$-1,727
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?$-1,416
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nominatio$-1,053
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidenti$-1,040

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.303
Sortino
2.709
HHI
342
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.825
Kelly %
41.2%
Half-Kelly
20.6%
Top-1 market
10.7%
Top-5 markets
34.5%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
44.8
Active
Markets / Day
1.6
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
14:00 UTC
Median Gap
4.9m
between trades
Avg Gap
31.1m
between trades
Night Trading
19%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
3.62
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
0 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.5

Bot Detection

#6
45
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
MEDIUM
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 292s — typical for humanSize CV 3.62 — diverse, typical for human19% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 0.91 — human randomness45 trades/day — suspiciously high819 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 14:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
17
Heavy DCA
<=1
130 entries
<=2
187 entries
<=5
255 entries
<=10
311 entries
<=20
361 entries
<=50
399 entries
>50
38 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)14.9%
Mid (20-55c)26.5%
High (>55c)58.6%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 33.1%

Other$64,395
Milan$0
Los Angeles$0
Toronto$0

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.9
Events covered
259

Single bracket

<=1
185 brackets
<=2
222 brackets
<=3
241 brackets
<=4
247 brackets
<=5
248 brackets
<=8
252 brackets
>8
7 brackets

Sessions

#12
8/7/2025, 9:13:45 AM1 trades$30 min
8/7/2025, 10:30:11 PM4 trades$361 min
8/8/2025, 6:25:49 AM1 trades$2920 min
8/11/2025, 2:06:32 AM1 trades$400 min
8/11/2025, 2:11:38 AM1 trades$560 min
8/11/2025, 2:20:50 AM3 trades$1094 min
8/11/2025, 6:53:52 PM1 trades$7310 min
8/12/2025, 7:59:37 PM1 trades$7430 min
8/13/2025, 12:58:39 PM1 trades$10 min
8/13/2025, 1:55:57 PM1 trades$1140 min
8/13/2025, 3:16:09 PM1 trades$4430 min
8/15/2025, 9:59:52 AM1 trades$9800 min
8/15/2025, 10:52:24 AM1 trades$1,2140 min
8/16/2025, 12:36:50 AM1 trades$2930 min
8/17/2025, 12:36:34 AM1 trades$3600 min
8/17/2025, 8:08:28 AM1 trades$70 min
8/17/2025, 8:18:38 AM1 trades$280 min
8/17/2025, 1:36:16 PM1 trades$270 min
8/17/2025, 3:00:04 PM1 trades$1080 min
8/17/2025, 3:27:52 PM1 trades$170 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
12-31
02-05
03-31
05-11
06-18
06-27
12-31

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
45.3% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 17/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.9 br/event