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Grumpy-Urn

@Grumpy-Urn

#1,25181

0x08458f7e9d2858027de579e4c3ca305475496b6f

509d· 2774 markets · 13221 tradesVol: $19,739,311 @GollumGekko12026-05-16T10:47
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

81
Very Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 57%14/20
Profit Factor 3.10x15/15
Sharpe 0.3206/15
Sortino 5.66310/10
EV $+0.83810/10
HHI 24210/10
Profit Days 58%7/10
DD/Peak 1%10/10

Summary

Grumpy-Urn is an experienced and moderately active trader on Polymarket, ranked #1251 on the global PnL leaderboard. With a solid net profit of $120,138.69 generated over 754 days and 13,221 trades across 451 markets, they maintain a substantial portfolio value nearing $199,000. Grumpy-Urn’s Smart Score of 81/100 indicates very good trading acumen, supported by a win rate of 60.5% and a profit factor of 1.24.

Their trading style favors diversified markets, avoiding weather-related events entirely, and shows a balanced approach between buying and selling, with a sell percentage of 44%. Grumpy-Urn exhibits a consistent upward equity trend and utilizes a semi-automated strategy, blending bot assistance with manual decisions. The trader’s Sharpe ratio of 0.32 points to moderate risk-adjusted returns, while the absence of drawdown duration suggests effective risk controls and timing.

Strengths for Grumpy-Urn include disciplined risk management, demonstrated by steady profitability and a strong win streak badge. However, their moderate Sharpe ratio and semi-bot trading style imply some exposure to market volatility and reliance on automation, which could present risks if market conditions shift abruptly. Overall, Grumpy-Urn shows a well-rounded and steadily growing presence on Polymarket.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

6
Profitable
PnL $+120,139
DCA Master
avg 18.3 entries/market
Win Streak
7 wins in a row
Whale
$1,261,938
High Roller
$1,674/day
Cool Head
DD 1%

Categories

9
🏛️ POLITICS#525$87,389Vol: $13,691,872
🎭 CULTURE#945$7,974Vol: $1,860,514
₿ CRYPTO#5,066$8,906Vol: $1,468,534
📈 ECONOMICS#502$10,675Vol: $1,199,606
💰 FINANCE#1,502$2,897Vol: $536,307
💻 TECH#1,195$1,013Vol: $451,433
⚽ SPORTS#344,344$2Vol: $261,470
📢 MENTIONS#1,905$568Vol: $57,953
🌤️ WEATHER#2,818$340Vol: $16,394

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$120,139
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$19,739,311
Total Redeem
$92,960
Portfolio
$198,936
Predictions
2774
total markets
Trades
7465B / 5756S
Daily Volume
$1,674
Account Age
509d
since Dec 27, 2024

Periods

#2
Today
$-295
Vol: $4,350
Week
$-615
Vol: $427,198
Month
$-7,898
Vol: $1,209,784
All Time
$120,139
Vol: $19,739,311

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
62%
204W / 123L events
Realized PnL
$231,863
Win Rate
61%
46W / 30L
Profit Factor
1.24x
Avg Win
$1,798
Avg Loss
$-2,216

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $52,008 (320.8% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?$20,004
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination$19,992
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nominati$12,012
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nominat$10,020
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?$3,740
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?$2,285
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?$2,013
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$1,832
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?$1,702
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?$1,613

Top Losers

Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?$-14,842
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?$-8,136
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$-4,736
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?$-4,275
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the$-4,251
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?$-3,922
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?$-3,043
Will Trump dance today?$-2,526
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before Kevin Warsh is confi$-2,395
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April $-2,151

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.320
Sortino
5.663
HHI
242
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.838
Kelly %
41.6%
Half-Kelly
20.8%
Top-1 market
8.8%
Top-5 markets
26.2%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
46.9
Active
Markets / Day
1.6
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
23:00 UTC
Median Gap
4.8m
between trades
Avg Gap
29.7m
between trades
Night Trading
19%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
3.27
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
0 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.5

Bot Detection

#6
45
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
MEDIUM
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 288s — typical for humanSize CV 3.27 — diverse, typical for human19% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 0.94 — human randomness47 trades/day — suspiciously high785 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 23:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
18.3
Heavy DCA
<=1
104 entries
<=2
161 entries
<=5
224 entries
<=10
286 entries
<=20
334 entries
<=50
367 entries
>50
42 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)12.8%
Mid (20-55c)21.2%
High (>55c)66%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 28.5%

Other$16,186
Warsh$26
Milan$0
Los Angeles$0
Toronto$0

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.8
Events covered
246

Single bracket

<=1
180 brackets
<=2
210 brackets
<=3
228 brackets
<=4
233 brackets
<=5
235 brackets
<=8
241 brackets
>8
5 brackets

Sessions

#12
8/7/2025, 9:13:45 AM1 trades$30 min
8/7/2025, 10:30:11 PM4 trades$361 min
8/8/2025, 6:25:49 AM1 trades$2920 min
8/11/2025, 2:06:32 AM1 trades$400 min
8/11/2025, 2:11:38 AM1 trades$560 min
8/11/2025, 2:20:50 AM3 trades$1094 min
8/11/2025, 6:53:52 PM1 trades$7310 min
8/12/2025, 7:59:37 PM1 trades$7430 min
8/13/2025, 12:58:39 PM1 trades$10 min
8/13/2025, 1:55:57 PM1 trades$1140 min
8/13/2025, 3:16:09 PM1 trades$4430 min
8/15/2025, 9:59:52 AM1 trades$9800 min
8/15/2025, 10:52:24 AM1 trades$1,2140 min
8/16/2025, 12:36:50 AM1 trades$2930 min
8/17/2025, 12:36:34 AM1 trades$3600 min
8/17/2025, 8:08:28 AM1 trades$70 min
8/17/2025, 8:18:38 AM1 trades$280 min
8/17/2025, 1:36:16 PM1 trades$270 min
8/17/2025, 3:00:04 PM1 trades$1080 min
8/17/2025, 3:27:52 PM1 trades$170 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
11-25
01-27
03-10
04-23
06-02
01-01

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
43.5% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 18.3/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.8 br/event