Guano

@Guano

#2,345,92315

0xd9c278a83a2b70e379879be4a7a74a7bffb8252a

~72d· 80 markets · 122 tradesVol: $116,726 @joandandi2026-09-21 20:11:10
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

15
Beginner
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

50% (39/78)10/20
0.58x (win $114 / loss $195)0/15
Annualised Sharpe -3.5150/15
Sortino -4.1790/10
$-0.2218 per $1 invested0/10
HHI 2671 (78 markets)0/10
34/68 profitable days (50%)5/10
Max DD 386% of peak ($110 / $28)0/10

Badges

1
Win Streak
7 wins in a row

Categories

3
🏛️ POLITICS#916,800$-1Vol: $116,000
SPORTS#1,600,361$-46Vol: $584
CRYPTO#828,934$-1Vol: $37

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-45
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$116,726
Total Redeem
$23
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
80
total markets
Trades
95B / 27S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~72d

Periods

#2
Month
$5
Vol: $10,101
All Time
$-45
Vol: $116,726

PnL Analysis

#3

Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology

Win Rate (events)
50%
39W / 39L events
Realized PnL
$-45
Win Rate
50%
39W / 39L
Profit Factor
0.58x
Avg Win
$3
Avg Loss
$-5

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $40 (0.8835616438356164% of PnL)

Top Winners

Heat vs. Hornets$20
Bucks vs. Pelicans$13
Rangers vs. Lightning$8
Nuggets vs. Lakers$7
Bucks vs. Thunder$6
LoL: Team Liquid vs Sentinels (BO3) - LCS Lock In Group Stage$5
Grizzlies vs. Magic$5
Counter-Strike: VP.Prodigy vs ENJOY (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Series #16 Group A$4
Thunder vs. Knicks$4
LoL: GIANTX PRIDE vs Barça eSports (BO1) - LES Kick-off Group B$4

Top Losers

Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?$-31
Nets vs. Hawks$-10
Knicks vs. Lakers$-9
Canucks vs. Ducks$-9
Hornets vs. Trail Blazers$-8
Nuggets vs. Spurs$-8
Bulls vs. Kings$-7
Timberwolves vs. Trail Blazers$-7
Bulls vs. Clippers$-7
Cavaliers vs. Pistons$-7

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.183
Sortino
-0.225
HHI
417
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.224
Kelly %
0.5%
Half-Kelly
0.3%
Top-1 market
16.4%
Top-5 markets
30.2%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
0.5
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.4
Active Hours
20/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
16:00 UTC
Median Gap
13.6h
between trades
Avg Gap
11.5h
between trades
Night Trading
5%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
0.88
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
0 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.2

Bot Detection

#6
5
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 48860s — normal for humanCV 0.88 — diverse sizes (human-like)5% night trades — normal pattern20/24 hours — extended activity1 trades/day — normal0.4 markets/day — normal39% maker — normal mix

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 16:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
1.49
Single entry

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)8.4%
Mid (20-55c)40%
High (>55c)51.6%

Sessions

#12
6/13/2026, 9:07:19 AM4 trades$1610 min
8/19/2026, 5:19:39 PM3 trades$300 min
2/5/2026, 7:32:51 AM1 trades$170 min
2/5/2026, 8:01:39 AM1 trades$150 min
3/2/2026, 4:52:51 PM2 trades$142 min
3/3/2026, 9:46:27 AM1 trades$110 min
6/13/2026, 9:17:37 AM2 trades$100 min
2/22/2026, 7:46:44 PM1 trades$100 min
1/15/2026, 5:50:42 PM1 trades$90 min
3/8/2026, 7:01:23 PM1 trades$90 min
2/20/2026, 9:51:02 PM1 trades$80 min
3/6/2026, 10:30:23 PM1 trades$80 min
3/10/2026, 10:57:29 PM1 trades$80 min
3/13/2026, 12:54:07 AM1 trades$80 min
2/20/2026, 3:08:46 PM2 trades$83 min
2/24/2026, 8:00:50 PM1 trades$70 min
2/25/2026, 10:05:32 PM1 trades$70 min
2/27/2026, 11:33:49 PM1 trades$70 min
3/4/2026, 10:32:01 PM1 trades$70 min
3/9/2026, 12:19:01 AM1 trades$70 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-11
02-05
02-18
03-05
03-17
04-27
06-17

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Max drawdown: 113 days (not recovered)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
22.1% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 1.49/mkt
Entry Bias
HIGH $
L8.4 / M40 / H51.6