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Idolized-Fresco

@Idolized-Fresco

#67967

0x3b4484b6c8cbfdaa383ba337ab3f0d71055e264e

391d· 467 markets · 2887 tradesVol: $4,088,8682026-07-01T06:39
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

67
Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 94%20/20
Profit Factor 2.08x15/15
Sharpe 0.1603/15
Sortino 0.0641/10
EV $+0.0754/10
HHI 32210/10
Profit Days 91%10/10
DD/Peak 48%4/10

Summary

Idolized-Fresco is an experienced Polymarket trader ranked #679 on the global PnL leaderboard, with a net profit of $276,592.15 from 2,887 trades across 384 markets. Over 482 active days, they have generated a total trading volume exceeding $4 million and maintain a solid smart score of 67/100, indicating reliable performance. Their portfolio value currently stands at $2,524.99, supported by a consistent upward equity trend.

The trader demonstrates a preference for diversified markets, avoiding weather-related ones entirely, and maintains a balanced sell ratio of 47%. Idolized-Fresco’s strategy appears disciplined and low-risk, evidenced by a high win rate of 93.4% and a profit factor of 2.08, although the Sharpe ratio is modest at 0.16. They do not hold positions long, as suggested by a maximum drawdown duration of zero days, reflecting a fast-paced, possibly intraday timing approach. The low bot score further supports the likelihood of active human decision-making.

Idolized-Fresco’s strengths lie in their strong consistency, large volume handling, and effective risk management, as highlighted by their sniper and profitable badges. However, the relatively low Sharpe ratio and minimal drawdown duration may indicate limited upside capture during volatile trends. While their approach minimizes losses, it might also constrain potential gains in longer-term or more speculative markets. Overall, Idolized-Fresco is a steady and skilled trader with a conservative edge on Polymarket.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

6
Sniper
Win Rate 94%
Profitable
PnL $+276,592
Win Streak
107 wins in a row
Whale
$1,677,420
Consistent
91/100 days
High Roller
$3,480/day

Categories

9
🏛️ POLITICS#227$214,745Vol: $2,682,906
📈 ECONOMICS#505$11,462Vol: $536,041
🎭 CULTURE#690$11,394Vol: $169,697
💻 TECH#1,464$856Vol: $163,093
📢 MENTIONS#120$15,825Vol: $158,392
CRYPTO#30,341$962Vol: $158,000
SPORTS#20,743$1,963Vol: $135,101
💰 FINANCE#231$19,024Vol: $54,754
🌤️ WEATHER#212,152$-3Vol: $800

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$276,592
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$4,088,868
Total Redeem
$1,167,291
Portfolio
$2,525
Predictions
467
total markets
Trades
1521B / 1366S
Daily Volume
$3,480
Account Age
391d
since Jun 10, 2025

Periods

#2
Today
$-153
Vol: $0
Week
$929
Vol: $18,138
Month
$-153
Vol: $0
All Time
$276,592
Vol: $4,088,868

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
93%
188W / 14L events
Realized PnL
$285,863
Win Rate
93%
285W / 20L
Profit Factor
2.08x
Avg Win
$836
Avg Loss
$-5,723

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $47,490 (38.4% of PnL)

Top Winners

US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?$17,846
US x Iran meeting by February 6, 2026?$15,163
Will Sam Altman say "Car" or "Tesla" on The Tonight Show on Decem$14,481
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 9?$12,863
Will Trump visit China by March 31?$7,667
Will Michael Jackson be named in newly released Epstein files?$6,500
Will Trump release more Epstein files in 2025?$5,869
US government shutdown Saturday?$5,850
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?$5,403
Will Eric Adams drop out?$5,383

Top Losers

Will Donald Trump visit Germany in 2025?$-53,454
Bayrou out as French PM by September 30?$-29,430
Will Kathy Hochul endorse Mamdani?$-4,843
Will EJ Antoni be confirmed as BLS Commissioner in 2025?$-4,134
Japan prime minister Ishiba out in 2025?$-3,813
James Comey indicted before October?$-3,520
Will Trump say "Don't Take Tylenol" in October?$-3,490
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?$-3,041
Will Joe Biden make an appearance by October 15?$-2,084
Will Eric Adams endorse Cuomo?$-1,910

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.160
Sortino
0.064
HHI
322
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.075
Kelly %
75.2%
Half-Kelly
37.6%
Top-1 market
6.8%
Top-5 markets
32.4%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
9.6
Moderate
Markets / Day
1.3
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
21:00 UTC
Median Gap
1.5m
between trades
Avg Gap
1.1h
between trades
Night Trading
31%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
4.63
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.7

Bot Detection

#6
30
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

5 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 88s — typical for humanSize CV 4.63 — diverse, typical for human31% at night — bot never sleeps24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.04 — human randomness

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 21:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
4
Moderate DCA
<=1
212 entries
<=2
280 entries
<=5
344 entries
<=10
362 entries
<=20
376 entries
<=50
380 entries
>50
4 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)14.3%
Mid (20-55c)20.8%
High (>55c)64.8%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 53.5%

Other$123,242
Disclosure Bill$339
Miami$130
New York City$62

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.5
Events covered
262

Single bracket

<=1
205 brackets
<=2
234 brackets
<=3
250 brackets
<=4
256 brackets
<=5
256 brackets
<=8
259 brackets
>8
3 brackets

Sessions

#12
9/3/2025, 4:51:54 PM2 trades$6602 min
9/3/2025, 5:08:26 PM1 trades$3200 min
9/3/2025, 5:36:28 PM2 trades$8372 min
9/3/2025, 5:48:10 PM1 trades$850 min
9/4/2025, 11:29:03 PM2 trades$380 min
9/5/2025, 9:03:46 PM1 trades$1950 min
9/5/2025, 9:57:08 PM1 trades$2650 min
9/6/2025, 10:44:54 PM2 trades$1,8820 min
9/7/2025, 6:18:36 AM5 trades$5,3040 min
9/7/2025, 10:57:00 AM1 trades$1390 min
9/7/2025, 11:26:50 PM1 trades$1230 min
9/7/2025, 11:36:28 PM2 trades$1,1071 min
9/8/2025, 5:59:46 AM1 trades$150 min
9/8/2025, 4:59:32 PM3 trades$29,4303 min
9/8/2025, 6:18:40 PM1 trades$1400 min
9/8/2025, 11:30:38 PM1 trades$1690 min
9/8/2025, 11:51:28 PM2 trades$3594 min
9/9/2025, 12:44:36 AM2 trades$1450 min
9/9/2025, 2:08:30 AM1 trades$940 min
9/9/2025, 3:38:42 AM2 trades$1020 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
11-13
12-28
02-07
03-24
05-19
07-03

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
47.3% sell
DCA Style
MODERATE
avg 4/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.5 br/event