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Idolized-Fresco

@Idolized-Fresco

#61080

0x3b4484b6c8cbfdaa383ba337ab3f0d71055e264e

345d· 411 markets · 2546 tradesVol: $3,682,6292026-05-14T13:58
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

80
Very Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 97%20/20
Profit Factor 3.99x15/15
Sharpe 0.3617/15
Sortino 0.2482/10
EV $+0.1216/10
HHI 33010/10
Profit Days 94%10/10
DD/Peak 11%10/10

Summary

Idolized-Fresco is a highly active Polymarket trader ranked #610 on the global PnL leaderboard. Over 482 days, they have executed 2,546 trades across 336 markets with a substantial total volume of $3.68 million, generating a net profit of $255,645. Their smart score of 80/100 indicates strong overall performance, supported by a consistent upward equity trend and a portfolio value just above $2,000.

This trader demonstrates a precise and selective trading style, reflected in a remarkable 95.4% win rate and a profit factor close to 4. Idolized-Fresco does not engage in weather markets and maintains a balanced sell percentage of 43%, suggesting a strategy that combines patience with timely exits. Their modest Sharpe ratio of 0.36 and zero days of max drawdown duration imply relatively steady returns with minimal sustained losses. The data suggests Idolized-Fresco prefers markets with clear outcomes, likely focusing on high-confidence, short-term trades.

Idolized-Fresco’s strengths include high consistency, strong risk management, and disciplined trade execution, as highlighted by badges like Sniper and Consistent. However, the relatively low Sharpe ratio and limited diversification into different market types could pose risks if market conditions shift unexpectedly. Overall, their solid track record on Polymarket makes them a reliable and skilled trader, though monitoring for potential drawdowns in more volatile environments remains essential.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

7
Sniper
Win Rate 97%
Profitable
PnL $+255,645
Win Streak
91 wins in a row
Whale
$1,550,700
Consistent
80/85 days
High Roller
$3,217/day
Cool Head
DD 11%

Categories

9
🏛️ POLITICS#226$196,425Vol: $2,432,655
📈 ECONOMICS#464$11,407Vol: $535,579
🎭 CULTURE#650$11,340Vol: $164,250
💻 TECH#1,336$856Vol: $163,093
📢 MENTIONS#114$15,530Vol: $157,783
SPORTS#23,187$1,658Vol: $118,489
CRYPTO#39,187$490Vol: $40,000
💰 FINANCE#217$17,578Vol: $39,895
🌤️ WEATHER#194,760$-3Vol: $800

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$255,645
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$3,682,629
Total Redeem
$1,152,319
Portfolio
$2,017
Predictions
411
total markets
Trades
1451B / 1095S
Daily Volume
$3,217
Account Age
345d
since Jun 10, 2025

Periods

#2
Today
$13
Vol: $0
Week
$4,101
Vol: $88,748
Month
$9,728
Vol: $110,353
All Time
$255,645
Vol: $3,682,629

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
95%
186W / 9L events
Realized PnL
$271,212
Win Rate
95%
272W / 13L
Profit Factor
3.99x
Avg Win
$912
Avg Loss
$-4,778

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $53,376 (28.7% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will Donald Trump visit Germany in 2025?$20,367
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?$17,846
US x Iran meeting by February 6, 2026?$15,163
Will Sam Altman say "Car" or "Tesla" on The Tonight Show on Decem$14,481
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 9?$12,863
Ukraine agrees to US-approved peace plan by Thursday?$8,011
Will Trump visit China by March 31?$7,667
Will Michael Jackson be named in newly released Epstein files?$6,500
Will Trump release more Epstein files in 2025?$5,869
US government shutdown Saturday?$5,850

Top Losers

Bayrou out as French PM by September 30?$-29,430
Will Bitcoin reach $110K in September?$-19,980
Will Kathy Hochul endorse Mamdani?$-4,843
Japan prime minister Ishiba out in 2025?$-3,813
Will Trump designate ANTIFA a terrorist organization by September$-2,022
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?$-646
Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in September?$-402
Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 8?$-378
Will Trump talk to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in September?$-285
Will anyone vote "No" to releasing the Epstein files?$-146

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.361
Sortino
0.248
HHI
330
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.121
Kelly %
88.5%
Half-Kelly
44.3%
Top-1 market
7.3%
Top-5 markets
34%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
10.1
Active
Markets / Day
1.3
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
6:00 UTC
Median Gap
1.4m
between trades
Avg Gap
1.1h
between trades
Night Trading
35%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
4.39
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.6

Bot Detection

#6
35
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 86s — typical for humanSize CV 4.39 — diverse, typical for human35% at night — bot never sleeps24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.01 — human randomness10 trades/day — very active

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 6:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
4.3
Moderate DCA
<=1
185 entries
<=2
236 entries
<=5
298 entries
<=10
314 entries
<=20
327 entries
<=50
332 entries
>50
4 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)13.4%
Mid (20-55c)19.8%
High (>55c)66.8%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 54.8%

Other$185,440
Disclosure Bill$339
Miami$130
New York City$62

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.4
Events covered
233

Single bracket

<=1
184 brackets
<=2
210 brackets
<=3
222 brackets
<=4
229 brackets
<=5
230 brackets
<=8
230 brackets
>8
3 brackets

Sessions

#12
9/2/2025, 3:42:17 AM1 trades$19,9800 min
9/3/2025, 4:51:54 PM2 trades$6602 min
9/3/2025, 5:08:26 PM1 trades$3200 min
9/3/2025, 5:36:28 PM2 trades$8372 min
9/3/2025, 5:48:10 PM1 trades$850 min
9/4/2025, 11:29:03 PM2 trades$380 min
9/5/2025, 9:03:46 PM1 trades$1950 min
9/5/2025, 9:57:08 PM1 trades$2650 min
9/5/2025, 11:31:30 PM1 trades$1400 min
9/6/2025, 2:20:22 AM2 trades$835 min
9/6/2025, 2:50:06 AM1 trades$820 min
9/6/2025, 10:44:54 PM2 trades$1,8820 min
9/7/2025, 6:18:22 AM11 trades$7,8225 min
9/7/2025, 6:48:48 AM6 trades$1,6198 min
9/7/2025, 10:57:00 AM1 trades$1390 min
9/7/2025, 11:26:50 PM1 trades$1230 min
9/7/2025, 11:36:28 PM2 trades$1,1071 min
9/8/2025, 5:59:46 AM1 trades$150 min
9/8/2025, 4:59:32 PM3 trades$29,4303 min
9/8/2025, 6:18:40 PM1 trades$1400 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
11-04
12-08
01-21
02-25
04-10
12-31

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
43% sell
DCA Style
MODERATE
avg 4.3/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.4 br/event