Polydata
Idolized-Fresco

@Idolized-Fresco

#69067

0x3b4484b6c8cbfdaa383ba337ab3f0d71055e264e

391d· 468 markets · 2889 tradesVol: $4,090,7562026-07-06T15:42
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

67
Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 95%20/20
Profit Factor 2.15x15/15
Sharpe 0.1653/15
Sortino 0.0611/10
EV $+0.0784/10
HHI 32410/10
Profit Days 92%10/10
DD/Peak 46%5/10

Summary

Idolized-Fresco is a moderately active trader on Polymarket, holding the #690 position on the global PnL leaderboard. With a net profit and loss (PnL) of approximately $276,936 and a total traded volume exceeding $4 million, they have executed 2,889 trades across 384 markets over 482 days. Their consistent upward equity trend and a smart score of 67 reflect a solid performance and a good grasp of market dynamics.

This trader prefers a diverse range of markets, avoiding weather-related ones, and maintains a balanced sell percentage near 48%. Idolized-Fresco’s high win rate of 93.7% combined with a profit factor of 2.15 suggests a relatively conservative risk profile with effective trade selection. The low Sharpe ratio of 0.16 and quick recovery from drawdowns indicate limited volatility in returns and timely trade exits, characteristic of a disciplined, possibly human trader, given the bot score of 30.

Idolized-Fresco’s key strengths lie in their high consistency, strong profitability, and ability to sustain winning streaks, as evidenced by their badges. However, the modest Sharpe ratio and relatively low portfolio value compared to total volume might signal limited capital deployment or cautious position sizing, which could constrain growth potential. Overall, Idolized-Fresco demonstrates reliable trading behavior with manageable risk on Polymarket.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

6
Sniper
Win Rate 95%
Profitable
PnL $+276,936
Win Streak
106 wins in a row
Whale
$1,674,002
Consistent
93/101 days
High Roller
$3,473/day

Categories

9
🏛️ POLITICS#226$215,100Vol: $2,684,623
📈 ECONOMICS#510$11,462Vol: $536,041
🎭 CULTURE#702$11,394Vol: $169,697
💻 TECH#1,479$856Vol: $163,093
📢 MENTIONS#120$15,825Vol: $158,392
CRYPTO#30,540$962Vol: $158,000
SPORTS#21,180$1,978Vol: $135,271
💰 FINANCE#236$18,997Vol: $54,754
🌤️ WEATHER#213,464$-3Vol: $800

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$276,936
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$4,090,756
Total Redeem
$1,167,291
Portfolio
$2,796
Predictions
468
total markets
Trades
1517B / 1372S
Daily Volume
$3,473
Account Age
391d
since Jun 10, 2025

Periods

#2
Today
$66
Vol: $0
Week
$66
Vol: $48
Month
$191
Vol: $1,888
All Time
$276,936
Vol: $4,090,756

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
94%
187W / 12L events
Realized PnL
$293,001
Win Rate
94%
284W / 19L
Profit Factor
2.15x
Avg Win
$839
Avg Loss
$-5,839

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $47,490 (37.3% of PnL)

Top Winners

US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?$17,846
US x Iran meeting by February 6, 2026?$15,163
Will Sam Altman say "Car" or "Tesla" on The Tonight Show on Decem$14,481
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 9?$12,863
Will Trump visit China by March 31?$7,667
Will Michael Jackson be named in newly released Epstein files?$6,500
Will Trump release more Epstein files in 2025?$5,869
US government shutdown Saturday?$5,850
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?$5,403
Will Eric Adams drop out?$5,383

Top Losers

Will Donald Trump visit Germany in 2025?$-53,454
Bayrou out as French PM by September 30?$-29,430
Will Kathy Hochul endorse Mamdani?$-4,843
Will EJ Antoni be confirmed as BLS Commissioner in 2025?$-4,134
Japan prime minister Ishiba out in 2025?$-3,813
Will Trump say "Don't Take Tylenol" in October?$-3,490
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?$-3,041
Will Joe Biden make an appearance by October 15?$-2,084
Will Eric Adams endorse Cuomo?$-1,910
Will Letitia James be charged with a crime by December 31?$-1,402

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.165
Sortino
0.061
HHI
324
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.078
Kelly %
76.5%
Half-Kelly
38.3%
Top-1 market
6.8%
Top-5 markets
32.5%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
9.5
Moderate
Markets / Day
1.3
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
21:00 UTC
Median Gap
1.5m
between trades
Avg Gap
1.1h
between trades
Night Trading
31%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
4.63
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.7

Bot Detection

#6
30
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

5 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 88s — typical for humanSize CV 4.63 — diverse, typical for human31% at night — bot never sleeps24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.03 — human randomness

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 21:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
4
Moderate DCA
<=1
213 entries
<=2
281 entries
<=5
344 entries
<=10
362 entries
<=20
376 entries
<=50
380 entries
>50
4 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)14.4%
Mid (20-55c)20.8%
High (>55c)64.8%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 53.4%

Other$126,733
Disclosure Bill$339
Miami$130
New York City$62

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.5
Events covered
262

Single bracket

<=1
205 brackets
<=2
234 brackets
<=3
250 brackets
<=4
256 brackets
<=5
256 brackets
<=8
259 brackets
>8
3 brackets

Sessions

#12
9/3/2025, 4:51:54 PM2 trades$6602 min
9/3/2025, 5:08:26 PM1 trades$3200 min
9/3/2025, 5:36:28 PM2 trades$8372 min
9/3/2025, 5:48:10 PM1 trades$850 min
9/4/2025, 11:29:03 PM2 trades$380 min
9/5/2025, 9:03:46 PM1 trades$1950 min
9/5/2025, 9:57:08 PM1 trades$2650 min
9/6/2025, 10:44:54 PM2 trades$1,8820 min
9/7/2025, 6:18:36 AM5 trades$5,3040 min
9/7/2025, 10:57:00 AM1 trades$1390 min
9/7/2025, 11:26:50 PM1 trades$1230 min
9/7/2025, 11:36:28 PM2 trades$1,1071 min
9/8/2025, 5:59:46 AM1 trades$150 min
9/8/2025, 4:59:32 PM3 trades$29,4303 min
9/8/2025, 6:18:40 PM1 trades$1400 min
9/8/2025, 11:30:38 PM1 trades$1690 min
9/8/2025, 11:51:28 PM2 trades$3594 min
9/9/2025, 12:44:36 AM2 trades$1450 min
9/9/2025, 2:08:30 AM1 trades$940 min
9/9/2025, 3:38:42 AM2 trades$1020 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
11-13
12-17
02-03
03-21
05-19
07-03

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
47.5% sell
DCA Style
MODERATE
avg 4/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.5 br/event