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@Impassioned-Watch

#6692

0x0c0e270cf879583d6a0142fc817e05b768d0434e

1796d· 1202 markets · 83869 tradesVol: $118,396,3692026-07-01T15:20
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

92
Elite
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 85%20/20
Profit Factor 83.73x15/15
Sharpe 0.3627/15
Sortino 16.93710/10
EV $+4.66210/10
HHI 20110/10
Profit Days 95%10/10
DD/Peak 0%10/10

Summary

Impassioned-Watch is a highly active trader on Polymarket, ranked #66 on the global PnL leaderboard with a net profit of over $2 million. Over nearly 5.5 years and more than 83,000 trades, this trader has maintained a substantial portfolio value exceeding $1.1 million. Their smart score of 92/100 places them in the elite category, reflecting consistent performance and skillful market navigation.

The trading style of Impassioned-Watch is characterized by a high volume approach across 222 different markets, with a notable focus on selling positions 88% of the time. Their win rate is moderate at 36.7%, coupled with a low profit factor of 0.08, suggesting a strategy that likely capitalizes on small, frequent gains or hedging rather than large, infrequent wins. The semi-bot score indicates a hybrid of automated and manual trading methods, enabling rapid execution while retaining strategic oversight.

Impassioned-Watch's strengths include an upward equity trend, minimal drawdown duration, and a solid Sharpe ratio of 0.36, indicating measured risk-adjusted returns. However, the relatively low profit factor and win rate may pose concerns about the trader’s ability to sustain high profitability under volatile conditions. Overall, Impassioned-Watch demonstrates robust consistency and disciplined execution on Polymarket, balancing risk with steady growth.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

7
Sniper
Win Rate 85%
Profitable
PnL $+2,076,159
Win Streak
5 wins in a row
Whale
$12,544,635
Consistent
105/110 days
High Roller
$6,534/day
Cool Head
DD 0%

Categories

8
🏛️ POLITICS#26$1,360,862Vol: $96,001,592
📈 ECONOMICS#8$350,786Vol: $9,109,659
CRYPTO#185$151,600Vol: $8,819,132
🎭 CULTURE#803,955$-30,746Vol: $1,831,066
SPORTS#1,754,058$-1,896Vol: $1,060,619
💰 FINANCE#44$68,644Vol: $999,996
💻 TECH#193$9,428Vol: $424,116
📢 MENTIONS#2,186$491Vol: $7,904

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$2,076,159
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$118,396,369
Total Redeem
$16,491
Portfolio
$1,105,780
Predictions
1202
total markets
Trades
10313B / 73556S
Daily Volume
$6,534
Account Age
1796d
since Aug 4, 2021

Periods

#2
Today
$956
Vol: $92,165
Week
$28,026
Vol: $797,891
Month
$956
Vol: $92,165
All Time
$2,076,159
Vol: $118,396,369

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
95%
183W / 9L events
Realized PnL
$4,464,129
Win Rate
37%
40W / 69L
Profit Factor
0.08x
Avg Win
$15,783
Avg Loss
$-113,047

Top Winners

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?$105,014
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?$72,107
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New $53,486
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination$48,576
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$46,863
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$43,695
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?$30,375
US national Bitcoin reserve in 2025?$29,649
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?$25,630
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$16,577

Top Losers

Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?$-670,220
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?$-417,154
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before July?$-387,648
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in July?$-334,262
Wisconsin Supreme Court election: Susan Crawford vs. Brad Schimel$-308,873
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister?$-296,031
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?$-270,810
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30?$-258,585
Will Bitcoin reach $135K in August?$-253,004
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 202$-237,879

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.361
Sortino
16.937
HHI
201
Diversified
EV per $1
$4.662
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
5.4%
Top-5 markets
20.5%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
138.3
Very active
Markets / Day
0.4
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
9:00 UTC
Median Gap
58s
between trades
Avg Gap
6.8m
between trades
Night Trading
23%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
4.39
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.6

Bot Detection

#6
60
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
MEDIUM
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
HIGH
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 58s — typical for humanSize CV 4.39 — diverse, typical for human23% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 0.90 — human randomness138 trades/day — automation390 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 9:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
76.4
Heavy DCA
<=1
13 entries
<=2
19 entries
<=5
30 entries
<=10
40 entries
<=20
53 entries
<=50
80 entries
>50
55 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)2.6%
Mid (20-55c)2.6%
High (>55c)94.8%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 25.3%

New York City$-190,873
Other$-6,978,051

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
2.4
Events covered
93

Moderate coverage

<=1
69 brackets
<=2
85 brackets
<=3
87 brackets
<=4
90 brackets
<=5
90 brackets
<=8
90 brackets
>8
3 brackets

Sessions

#12
11/2/2024, 3:45:03 AM1 trades$6,2580 min
11/2/2024, 1:35:53 PM1 trades$1060 min
11/2/2024, 2:16:30 PM1 trades$2230 min
11/2/2024, 4:40:38 PM2 trades$1090 min
11/2/2024, 4:48:18 PM1 trades$1,7850 min
11/2/2024, 6:00:13 PM1 trades$2,0620 min
11/5/2024, 5:01:37 PM2 trades$1,1430 min
11/5/2024, 5:08:57 PM1 trades$210 min
11/5/2024, 5:25:19 PM1 trades$510 min
11/5/2024, 5:31:05 PM1 trades$1110 min
11/5/2024, 5:47:37 PM1 trades$280 min
11/5/2024, 5:53:15 PM2 trades$984 min
11/5/2024, 6:55:06 PM2 trades$2114 min
11/5/2024, 7:09:00 PM2 trades$211 min
11/5/2024, 7:46:40 PM1 trades$20 min
11/5/2024, 9:07:39 PM1 trades$110 min
11/5/2024, 9:25:59 PM1 trades$110 min
11/5/2024, 9:38:20 PM1 trades$70 min
11/5/2024, 9:48:08 PM4 trades$2614 min
11/5/2024, 10:01:05 PM1 trades$4,1660 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
09-18
01-01
01-06
06-30
04-30
01-01

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
87.7% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 76.4/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 2.4 br/event