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@Insubstantial-Future

#19,63095

0x540e45b5e9d6f2124af364f463489cf4570f1d82

136d· 526 markets · 879 tradesVol: $39,5952026-06-27T07:35
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

95
Elite
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 100%20/20
Profit Factor 255.58x15/15
Sharpe 0.54210/15
Sortino 192501.23210/10
EV $+0.77310/10
HHI 6710/10
Profit Days 100%10/10
DD/Peak 0%10/10

Summary

Insubstantial-Future is a highly active trader on Polymarket, maintaining an elite Smart Score of 95 out of 100 and ranking #19,630 globally in net profit and loss. Over 125 days, they executed 879 trades across 526 markets, generating a net PnL of $6,359.51 on a total volume of nearly $40,000. Despite a portfolio value currently at zero, their consistent trading activity reflects a disciplined approach.

The trader exhibits a precise, low-risk style focused on high win rates, achieving a 96.4% success rate with an exceptional profit factor of 255.58. Insubstantial-Future appears to favor markets outside of weather, as none of their trades involve that category, and they maintain a 0% sell rate, indicating a buy-and-hold or event-driven strategy. Their Sharpe ratio of 0.54 suggests moderate returns relative to volatility, while the zero-day max drawdown duration implies effective risk management with no significant losing streaks.

Insubstantial-Future’s strengths lie in consistency and precision, as highlighted by badges like Sniper and Diamond Hands, which signify disciplined execution and strong conviction. However, their flat equity trend and low Sharpe ratio may indicate limited upside potential and moderate risk-adjusted returns. The low Bot Score suggests trades are likely human-driven, which can be both an advantage in adaptability and a risk if speed is critical. Overall, Insubstantial-Future demonstrates reliable, steady performance on Polymarket with some room for dynamic growth.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

5
Sniper
Win Rate 100%
Profitable
PnL $+6,360
Diamond Hands
0% sell
Win Streak
374 wins in a row
Consistent
79/79 days

Categories

1
CRYPTO#7,357$6,360Vol: $39,595

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$6,360
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$39,595
Total Redeem
$34,893
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
526
total markets
Trades
879B / 0S
Daily Volume
$167
Account Age
136d
since Feb 18, 2026

Periods

#2
Today
$12
Vol: $304
Week
$41
Vol: $3,915
Month
$127
Vol: $7,130
All Time
$6,360
Vol: $39,595

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
100%
250W / 0L events
Realized PnL
$7,776
Win Rate
96%
461W / 12L
Profit Factor
255.58x
Avg Win
$33
Avg Loss
$-5

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $3,625 (23.8% of PnL)

Top Winners

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 12AM ET$2,193
XRP Up or Down - April 8, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET$840
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET$592
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET$560
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET$427
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET$370
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET$361
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET$344
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET$299
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET$283

Top Losers

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET$-23
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET$-10
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET$-8
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET$-6
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET$-5
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET$-3
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET$-2
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET$-2
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET$-1
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET$-1

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.542
Sortino
inf
HHI
67
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.772
Kelly %
95.9%
Half-Kelly
47.9%
Top-1 market
2.4%
Top-5 markets
9.9%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
7.0
Moderate
Markets / Day
4.2
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
7:00 UTC
Median Gap
45.0m
between trades
Avg Gap
2.4h
between trades
Night Trading
25%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.69
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.4

Bot Detection

#6
20
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

5 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 2700s — typical for humanSize CV 1.69 — diverse, typical for human25% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 0.78 — human randomness

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 7:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
1.7
Single entry
<=1
359 entries
<=2
469 entries
<=5
515 entries
<=10
519 entries
<=20
524 entries
<=50
526 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)8.2%
Mid (20-55c)21.2%
High (>55c)70.6%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 48.1%

Other$15,208

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1
Events covered
526

Single bracket

<=1
526 brackets
<=2
526 brackets
<=3
526 brackets
<=4
526 brackets
<=5
526 brackets
<=8
526 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
2/22/2026, 7:21:14 AM1 trades$1890 min
2/22/2026, 8:45:04 AM1 trades$940 min
2/24/2026, 12:15:04 PM2 trades$370 min
2/24/2026, 1:45:24 PM1 trades$30 min
2/24/2026, 1:55:22 PM1 trades$30 min
2/24/2026, 2:35:22 PM2 trades$65 min
2/24/2026, 2:45:06 PM2 trades$55 min
2/24/2026, 2:55:08 PM2 trades$55 min
2/24/2026, 3:10:06 PM2 trades$55 min
2/24/2026, 3:20:08 PM1 trades$30 min
2/24/2026, 3:30:04 PM1 trades$30 min
2/24/2026, 3:35:14 PM1 trades$30 min
2/24/2026, 4:15:16 PM1 trades$30 min
2/24/2026, 4:25:10 PM1 trades$30 min
2/24/2026, 4:35:26 PM2 trades$75 min
2/24/2026, 4:55:20 PM3 trades$810 min
2/24/2026, 5:15:04 PM1 trades$30 min
2/24/2026, 5:25:08 PM2 trades$55 min
2/24/2026, 5:55:08 PM1 trades$20 min
2/24/2026, 6:00:40 PM2 trades$55 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
02-22
03-10
03-25
04-08
04-22
05-26
06-27

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
0% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 1.7/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1 br/event