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@Insubstantial-Future

#17,93296

0x540e45b5e9d6f2124af364f463489cf4570f1d82

89d· 310 markets · 597 tradesVol: $31,8312026-05-14T13:47
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

96
Elite
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 100%20/20
Profit Factor 99.00x15/15
Sharpe 0.59511/15
Sortino 229755.70210/10
EV $+0.96310/10
HHI 10710/10
Profit Days 100%10/10
DD/Peak 0%10/10

Summary

Insubstantial-Future is a moderately active trader on Polymarket, ranked #17932 on the global PnL leaderboard with a net profit of $6,296.81. Over 71 days, they executed 597 trades across 310 markets, accumulating a total volume of $31,831. Their consistent performance is reflected in a perfect 100% win rate and a high Smart Score of 96, placing them in the elite category.

This trader favors a low-risk, steady strategy, as indicated by a stable equity trend and a Sharpe ratio of 0.60. Insubstantial-Future appears to focus on making precise entries, earning the Sniper badge, and maintains positions without selling, as shown by a 0% sell percentage. Their activity avoids weather-related markets and suggests a preference for well-analyzed, consistent opportunities rather than high volatility or speculative trades.

Key strengths for Insubstantial-Future include exceptional consistency and an ability to avoid drawdowns, with a maximum drawdown duration of zero days. However, the zero profit factor and lack of portfolio value suggest limited capital deployment or unrealized gains. Despite a strong win streak, the low Bot Score indicates manual trading, which could introduce human error or emotional biases over time.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

5
Sniper
Win Rate 100%
Profitable
PnL $+6,297
Diamond Hands
0% sell
Win Streak
287 wins in a row
Consistent
64/64 days

Categories

1
CRYPTO#6,942$6,297Vol: $31,831

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$6,297
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$31,831
Total Redeem
$29,981
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
310
total markets
Trades
597B / 0S
Daily Volume
$228
Account Age
89d
since Feb 18, 2026

Periods

#2
Month
$74
Vol: $331
All Time
$6,297
Vol: $31,831

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
100%
250W / 0L events
Realized PnL
$7,338
Win Rate
100%
287W / 0L
Profit Factor
0x
Avg Win
$51
Avg Loss
$0

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $3,625 (24.7% of PnL)

Top Winners

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 12AM ET$2,193
XRP Up or Down - April 8, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET$840
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET$592
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET$560
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET$427
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET$370
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET$361
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET$344
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET$299
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET$283

Top Losers

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.595
Sortino
inf
HHI
107
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.963
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
3.1%
Top-5 markets
12.8%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
8.4
Moderate
Markets / Day
4.4
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
6:00 UTC
Median Gap
1.2h
between trades
Avg Gap
3.2h
between trades
Night Trading
24%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.76
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.4

Bot Detection

#6
20
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

5 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 4200s — typical for humanSize CV 1.76 — diverse, typical for human24% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 0.78 — human randomness

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 6:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
1.9
Single entry
<=1
198 entries
<=2
259 entries
<=5
300 entries
<=10
303 entries
<=20
308 entries
<=50
310 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)1.7%
Mid (20-55c)27.6%
High (>55c)70.7%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 51.9%

Other$14,704

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1
Events covered
310

Single bracket

<=1
310 brackets
<=2
310 brackets
<=3
310 brackets
<=4
310 brackets
<=5
310 brackets
<=8
310 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
2/22/2026, 7:21:14 AM1 trades$1890 min
2/22/2026, 8:45:04 AM1 trades$940 min
2/24/2026, 12:15:04 PM2 trades$370 min
2/24/2026, 1:45:24 PM1 trades$30 min
2/24/2026, 1:55:22 PM1 trades$30 min
2/24/2026, 2:35:22 PM2 trades$65 min
2/24/2026, 2:45:06 PM2 trades$55 min
2/24/2026, 2:55:08 PM2 trades$55 min
2/24/2026, 3:10:06 PM2 trades$55 min
2/24/2026, 3:20:08 PM1 trades$30 min
2/24/2026, 3:30:04 PM1 trades$30 min
2/24/2026, 3:35:14 PM1 trades$30 min
2/24/2026, 4:15:16 PM1 trades$30 min
2/24/2026, 4:25:10 PM1 trades$30 min
2/24/2026, 4:35:26 PM2 trades$75 min
2/24/2026, 4:55:20 PM3 trades$810 min
2/24/2026, 5:15:04 PM1 trades$30 min
2/24/2026, 5:25:08 PM2 trades$55 min
2/24/2026, 5:55:08 PM1 trades$20 min
2/24/2026, 6:00:40 PM2 trades$55 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
02-22
03-07
03-17
03-29
04-09
04-20
05-01

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
0% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 1.9/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1 br/event