Polydata

@Insubstantial-Future

#20,17795

0x540e45b5e9d6f2124af364f463489cf4570f1d82

137d· 600 markets · 983 tradesVol: $43,7242026-07-04T06:04
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

95
Elite
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 100%20/20
Profit Factor 145.26x15/15
Sharpe 0.52610/15
Sortino 180478.40710/10
EV $+0.71510/10
HHI 5710/10
Profit Days 100%10/10
DD/Peak 0%10/10

Summary

Insubstantial-Future is a highly active and successful trader on Polymarket, with a global PnL rank of #20177. Over 132 days, they have executed 983 trades across 600 markets, accumulating a net profit of $6,283.89 on a total volume of $43,724. Their elite Smart Score of 95/100 reflects strong overall performance, supported by a remarkable win rate of 94.1% and a profit factor of 145.26, indicating highly efficient trading.

The trading style of Insubstantial-Future appears methodical and low-risk, favoring a broad range of markets without focusing on weather-related events. Their zero sell percentage suggests a preference for holding positions rather than frequent flipping, aligning with their Diamond Hands badge. The flat equity trend and modest Sharpe ratio of 0.53 point to steady, consistent returns rather than high volatility, while their short max drawdown duration indicates effective risk management. The trader’s timing suggests patience and precision, consistent with their Sniper badge.

Insubstantial-Future’s key strengths on Polymarket include exceptional consistency and a strong winning streak, supported by a robust profit factor and minimal drawdowns. However, the relatively low Sharpe ratio and flat equity trend could imply limited upside potential or cautious capital deployment. Additionally, the 0% sell rate may pose risks if market conditions suddenly shift, as flexibility is reduced. Overall, Insubstantial-Future demonstrates disciplined, reliable trading with a focus on sustainable gains.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

5
Sniper
Win Rate 100%
Profitable
PnL $+6,284
Diamond Hands
0% sell
Win Streak
374 wins in a row
Consistent
86/86 days

Categories

1
CRYPTO#7,473$6,287Vol: $43,743

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$6,284
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$43,724
Total Redeem
$37,241
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
600
total markets
Trades
983B / 0S
Daily Volume
$175
Account Age
137d
since Feb 18, 2026

Periods

#2
Today
$7
Vol: $93
Week
$-51
Vol: $2,950
Month
$-82
Vol: $752
All Time
$6,284
Vol: $43,724

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
100%
250W / 0L events
Realized PnL
$7,990
Win Rate
94%
510W / 25L
Profit Factor
145.26x
Avg Win
$31
Avg Loss
$-4

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $3,625 (23.4% of PnL)

Top Winners

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 12AM ET$2,193
XRP Up or Down - April 8, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET$840
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET$592
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET$560
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET$427
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET$370
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET$361
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET$344
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET$299
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET$283

Top Losers

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET$-23
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET$-10
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET$-9
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET$-8
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET$-6
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET$-6
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET$-6
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET$-6
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET$-5
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET$-5

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.526
Sortino
inf
HHI
57
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.715
Kelly %
93.3%
Half-Kelly
46.6%
Top-1 market
2.2%
Top-5 markets
9%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
7.5
Moderate
Markets / Day
4.5
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
7:00 UTC
Median Gap
45.0m
between trades
Avg Gap
2.3h
between trades
Night Trading
25%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.63
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.4

Bot Detection

#6
20
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

5 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 2700s — typical for humanSize CV 1.63 — diverse, typical for human25% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 0.78 — human randomness

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 7:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
1.6
Single entry
<=1
404 entries
<=2
542 entries
<=5
589 entries
<=10
593 entries
<=20
598 entries
<=50
600 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)10.3%
Mid (20-55c)20%
High (>55c)69.7%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 47.3%

Other$15,521

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1
Events covered
600

Single bracket

<=1
600 brackets
<=2
600 brackets
<=3
600 brackets
<=4
600 brackets
<=5
600 brackets
<=8
600 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
2/22/2026, 7:21:14 AM1 trades$1890 min
2/22/2026, 8:45:04 AM1 trades$940 min
2/24/2026, 12:15:04 PM2 trades$370 min
2/24/2026, 1:45:24 PM1 trades$30 min
2/24/2026, 1:55:22 PM1 trades$30 min
2/24/2026, 2:35:22 PM2 trades$55 min
2/24/2026, 2:45:06 PM2 trades$55 min
2/24/2026, 2:55:08 PM2 trades$55 min
2/24/2026, 3:10:06 PM2 trades$55 min
2/24/2026, 3:20:08 PM1 trades$30 min
2/24/2026, 3:30:04 PM1 trades$30 min
2/24/2026, 3:35:14 PM1 trades$30 min
2/24/2026, 4:15:16 PM1 trades$30 min
2/24/2026, 4:25:10 PM1 trades$30 min
2/24/2026, 4:35:26 PM2 trades$75 min
2/24/2026, 4:55:20 PM3 trades$810 min
2/24/2026, 5:15:04 PM1 trades$30 min
2/24/2026, 5:25:08 PM2 trades$55 min
2/24/2026, 5:55:08 PM1 trades$20 min
2/24/2026, 6:00:40 PM2 trades$55 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
02-22
03-11
03-27
04-11
04-26
06-19
07-03

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
0% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 1.6/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1 br/event