Polydata

@Last-Temptation

#2,961,14412

0xec690ecdbe75275f390d9460b112dfc53ae36fba

94d· 3028 markets · 21366 tradesVol: $5,659,9572026-07-03T09:55
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

12
Beginner
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 28%0/20
Profit Factor 0.79x0/15
HHI 2510/10
Profit Days 40%2/10
DD/Peak 786%0/10

Summary

Last-Temptation is a highly active Polymarket trader with over 21,000 trades across 1,426 markets in just 98 days. Despite this high volume, their net PnL stands at a significant loss of $40,821.76, placing them at rank #2,961,144 globally. Their smart score of 12/100 indicates a beginner level, while the portfolio value has declined to $1,946.67 from presumably higher levels. The trader’s Sharpe ratio is negative (-0.29), reflecting poor risk-adjusted returns, and the equity trend is downward.

The trading style of Last-Temptation appears to be automated, supported by a bot score of 70/100, with characteristics such as contrarian positioning, dollar-cost averaging, and strong holding tendencies ("Diamond Hands"). They rarely sell, with only 2% sell trades, suggesting a long-biased or buy-and-hold approach. Their win rate is relatively high at 61.8%, but the profit factor below 1 (0.72) implies losses outweigh gains. The trader does not engage in weather markets, focusing instead on other event types, and their max drawdown duration is zero days, which may indicate quick position exits or stop losses.

Last-Temptation’s strengths include consistent activity and a disciplined automated strategy with a decent win rate. However, the significant net loss, poor profit factor, and negative risk-adjusted returns highlight concerns about their overall profitability and risk management on Polymarket. The downward equity trend and beginner status suggest the need for strategy refinement to improve long-term performance.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

7
Contrarian
52% entries <$0.50
Diamond Hands
2% sell
DCA Master
avg 14.7 entries/market
Bot
Score 70/100
Win Streak
9 wins in a row
Whale
$1,066,025
High Roller
$10,878/day

Categories

1
SPORTS#6,183$7,546Vol: $2,726,318

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-40,822
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$5,659,957
Total Redeem
$4,810
Portfolio
$1,947
Predictions
3028
total markets
Trades
20920B / 446S
Daily Volume
$10,878
Account Age
94d
since Apr 2, 2026

Periods

#2
Today
$3,026
Vol: $22,017
Week
$568
Vol: $282,171
Month
$-1,900
Vol: $128,976
All Time
$-40,822
Vol: $5,659,957

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
28%
428W / 1124L events
Realized PnL
$265,448
Win Rate
62%
94W / 58L
Profit Factor
0.72x
Avg Win
$492
Avg Loss
$-1,112

Top Winners

HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul$2,070
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?$1,824
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?$1,650
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?$1,599
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs NRG (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group$1,560
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group S$1,508
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational $1,461
LoL: RED Canids vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) - CBLOL Regular Season$1,447
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2$1,302
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27?$1,275

Top Losers

Wuning 2: Fajing Sun vs Li Tu$-9,259
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets$-5,827
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur$-5,134
Cavaliers vs. Raptors$-4,815
Knicks vs. Spurs$-4,033
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A$-3,341
Pistons vs. Magic$-3,329
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?$-2,445
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?$-2,141
Bucharest Open: Mariano Navone vs Botic van de Zandschulp$-1,914

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.286
Sortino
-0.445
HHI
25
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.206
Kelly %
3.7%
Half-Kelly
1.9%
Top-1 market
1.7%
Top-5 markets
5.3%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
231.3
Very active
Markets / Day
15.4
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
13:00 UTC
Median Gap
50s
between trades
Avg Gap
6.8m
between trades
Night Trading
20%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.00
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
9 min
Avg Trades / Session
11.1

Bot Detection

#6
70
BOT (automated trading)HIGH probability

8 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
MEDIUM
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
HIGH
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
HIGH
Median gap 50s — typical for humanSize CV 1.00 — diverse, typical for human20% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.08 — human randomness231 trades/day — automation15 markets/day — mass coverage1614 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 13:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
14.7
Heavy DCA
<=1
190 entries
<=2
340 entries
<=5
620 entries
<=10
881 entries
<=20
1114 entries
<=50
1350 entries
>50
76 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)11.1%
Mid (20-55c)47.6%
High (>55c)41.2%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 84.7%

Toronto$771
Seattle$265
Dallas$208
Lucknow$0
Madrid$0
Paris$0
Shanghai$0
Milan$0
London$0
Houston$0
Miami$0
San Francisco$0
Los Angeles$-82
Atlanta$-228
Chicago$-239
Other$-18,983

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1
Events covered
1401

Single bracket

<=1
1380 brackets
<=2
1400 brackets
<=3
1401 brackets
<=4
1401 brackets
<=5
1401 brackets
<=8
1401 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
4/2/2026, 12:25:49 AM1 trades$10 min
4/2/2026, 3:36:07 AM1 trades$740 min
4/2/2026, 3:54:15 AM3 trades$1235 min
4/2/2026, 5:46:41 AM2 trades$930 min
4/2/2026, 6:00:17 AM10 trades$2697 min
4/2/2026, 6:16:09 AM7 trades$4074 min
4/2/2026, 6:25:35 AM2 trades$720 min
4/2/2026, 6:32:03 AM1 trades$760 min
4/2/2026, 9:04:41 AM10 trades$32014 min
4/2/2026, 9:42:57 AM1 trades$800 min
4/2/2026, 9:48:23 AM7 trades$3709 min
4/2/2026, 10:07:35 AM9 trades$21410 min
4/2/2026, 10:27:31 AM1 trades$20 min
4/2/2026, 10:36:39 AM3 trades$1472 min
4/2/2026, 10:45:25 AM4 trades$3493 min
4/2/2026, 10:55:17 AM4 trades$909 min
4/2/2026, 11:10:05 AM3 trades$537 min
4/2/2026, 11:31:05 AM2 trades$670 min
4/2/2026, 11:45:15 AM1 trades$70 min
4/2/2026, 12:18:31 PM1 trades$40 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
04-02
04-18
05-04
05-20
06-05
06-21
07-05
07-08

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
2.1% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 14.7/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1 br/event