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@Lasting-Dessert

#3,07586

0x8e77537e059837d3c2ca5b4efe75e74e9498c4f3

1202d· 733 markets · 4255 tradesVol: $4,121,165 @dw89982026-06-13T13:08
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

86
Elite
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 85%20/20
Profit Factor 1.88x13/15
Sharpe 0.3977/15
Sortino 0.4795/10
EV $+0.33310/10
HHI 10110/10
Profit Days 86%10/10
DD/Peak 14%10/10

Summary

Lasting-Dessert is a highly active trader on Polymarket, ranked #3075 globally by net profit with a solid PnL of $50,130.70. Over 700 days, they have executed 4,255 trades across 382 markets, accumulating a total volume exceeding $4.1 million. Their portfolio value stands at $255,884.45, reflecting steady growth with an upward equity trend and a strong Smart Score of 86/100, placing them in the elite category.

The trader’s strategy focuses on high win rates and disciplined position management, as indicated by their impressive 89.9% win rate and low sell percentage of 6%. Lasting-Dessert tends to employ a semi-automated approach, combining bot-assisted and manual trading, evidenced by their Bot Score of 45/100. Their risk profile appears moderate, given a Sharpe ratio of 0.40 and a very short max drawdown duration, suggesting effective risk controls and the use of dollar-cost averaging to manage exposure.

Key strengths for Lasting-Dessert include consistency, a strong winning streak, and a diversified portfolio across many markets. However, the relatively low profit factor of 0.55 and moderate Sharpe ratio indicate potential risks in trade efficiency and volatility management. Overall, Lasting-Dessert demonstrates disciplined, steady performance on Polymarket, balancing frequent trading with risk mitigation.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

9
Sniper
Win Rate 85%
Profitable
PnL $+50,131
Diamond Hands
6% sell
DCA Master
avg 10.5 entries/market
Win Streak
209 wins in a row
Whale
$1,997,229
Consistent
50/58 days
High Roller
$2,853/day
Cool Head
DD 14%

Categories

7
🏛️ POLITICS#1,595,626$-60,955Vol: $1,726,919
₿ CRYPTO#402$81,392Vol: $1,384,100
📈 ECONOMICS#143$41,522Vol: $600,908
🎭 CULTURE#2,587$2,468Vol: $134,038
💰 FINANCE#3,098$1,366Vol: $115,294
💻 TECH#239,219$-1,908Vol: $77,732
⚽ SPORTS#228,327$13Vol: $146

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$50,131
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$4,121,165
Total Redeem
$1,374,204
Portfolio
$255,884
Predictions
733
total markets
Trades
3996B / 259S
Daily Volume
$2,853
Account Age
1202d
since Mar 13, 2023

Periods

#2
Today
$-5,642
Vol: $0
Week
$-10,044
Vol: $93,567
Month
$6,187
Vol: $98,567
All Time
$50,131
Vol: $4,121,165

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
81%
148W / 34L events
Realized PnL
$227,224
Win Rate
90%
259W / 29L
Profit Factor
0.55x
Avg Win
$651
Avg Loss
$-10,487

Top Winners

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?$37,911
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?$6,676
US forces enter Iran by March 31?$5,000
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?$4,783
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?$4,229
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?$3,155
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March?$3,071
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?$2,770
Ethereum all time high by June 30, 2026?$2,765
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?$2,750

Top Losers

Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?$-98,193
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?$-81,985
Lighter FDV above $2B one day after launch?$-23,791
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026?$-11,689
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on March 6?$-4,820
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on March 6?$-4,785
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 7?$-4,745
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 March 2-8?$-4,740
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in February?$-4,715
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 March 2-8?$-4,700

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.397
Sortino
0.479
HHI
101
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.333
Kelly %
11.5%
Half-Kelly
5.7%
Top-1 market
4.9%
Top-5 markets
16.4%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
17.0
Active
Markets / Day
1.5
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
10:00 UTC
Median Gap
2.1m
between trades
Avg Gap
27.0m
between trades
Night Trading
30%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
2.37
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.4

Bot Detection

#6
45
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 128s — typical for humanSize CV 2.37 — diverse, typical for human30% at night — bot never sleeps24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 0.98 — human randomness17 trades/day — very active349 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 10:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
10.5
Heavy DCA
<=1
94 entries
<=2
137 entries
<=5
208 entries
<=10
271 entries
<=20
328 entries
<=50
372 entries
>50
10 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)0%
Mid (20-55c)4.7%
High (>55c)95.3%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 13.5%

Warsh$487
Other$-136,014

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
2.3
Events covered
167

Moderate coverage

<=1
88 brackets
<=2
114 brackets
<=3
133 brackets
<=4
150 brackets
<=5
155 brackets
<=8
165 brackets
>8
2 brackets

Sessions

#12
10/5/2025, 12:49:10 AM1 trades$1,8800 min
11/7/2025, 8:45:17 AM1 trades$3400 min
11/7/2025, 10:05:37 AM9 trades$96111 min
11/7/2025, 11:06:29 AM1 trades$350 min
11/7/2025, 1:19:43 PM1 trades$290 min
11/7/2025, 1:40:39 PM1 trades$7740 min
11/7/2025, 2:09:37 PM1 trades$90 min
11/7/2025, 3:37:57 PM1 trades$5950 min
11/12/2025, 1:40:01 PM1 trades$120 min
11/24/2025, 7:34:45 AM2 trades$4631 min
11/24/2025, 7:46:39 AM2 trades$9971 min
11/24/2025, 9:02:55 AM1 trades$4750 min
11/24/2025, 12:04:21 PM2 trades$1242 min
11/24/2025, 12:27:11 PM1 trades$40 min
11/24/2025, 12:39:13 PM1 trades$20 min
11/24/2025, 12:44:47 PM1 trades$1750 min
11/24/2025, 8:09:35 PM2 trades$1,7204 min
11/29/2025, 11:42:51 AM2 trades$7335 min
12/1/2025, 7:19:38 PM1 trades$20 min
12/1/2025, 7:27:44 PM2 trades$514 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
01-09
03-09
03-18
04-29
05-31
10-01

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
6.1% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 10.5/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 2.3 br/event