Polydata

@Limp-Colt

#2,971,16130

0x67bc6af6806df61ba5144b125174ecf5f821d54e

285d· 1902 markets · 59334 tradesVol: $43,949,9602026-07-04T13:06
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

30
Below Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 94%20/20
Profit Factor 0.00x0/15
HHI 16210/10
Profit Days 12%0/10

Summary

Limp-Colt is an active Polymarket trader with over 500 days of activity and nearly 60,000 trades across 397 markets. Despite a high total trading volume of approximately $44 million, Limp-Colt ranks low on the global PnL leaderboard at #2,971,161, reflecting an overall net loss of around $290,000. The trader’s portfolio value stands at just over $100,000, but key performance indicators like a negative Sharpe ratio (-0.44) and a below-average Smart Score of 30/100 indicate poor risk-adjusted returns.

Limp-Colt’s trading style appears to be high-frequency and high-volume but with a low success rate of 32.5% and a profit factor of zero, suggesting that losses consistently outweigh gains. The trader shows no preference for weather markets and sells only 14% of positions, implying a potential tendency to hold losing trades. The semi-bot trading model, with a Bot Score of 50/100, indicates a mixture of automated and manual strategies. Limp-Colt’s badges such as Sniper and High Roller suggest an aggressive approach, possibly taking sizable risks for high-reward outcomes.

The main strength of Limp-Colt lies in their extensive market engagement and ability to sustain high trade volumes. However, the persistent downward equity trend, large net losses, and poor risk metrics present significant concerns. The low win rate and negative profit factor indicate inefficiency in capitalizing on market opportunities, which increases exposure to losses. Overall, Limp-Colt’s Polymarket activity reflects a high-risk, high-volume strategy with limited demonstrated profitability.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

4
Sniper
Win Rate 94%
Win Streak
17 wins in a row
Whale
$7,210,599
High Roller
$14,250/day

Categories

8
SPORTS#1,797,673$-261,072Vol: $14,631,504
📈 ECONOMICS#668,651$-57,342Vol: $13,457,238
🏛️ POLITICS#1,609,494$-5,199Vol: $7,417,044
🎭 CULTURE#804,746$-16,958Vol: $5,005,643
💰 FINANCE#63$50,651Vol: $3,289,733
CRYPTO#93,759$100Vol: $128,598
🌤️ WEATHER#285,114$-519Vol: $14,216
📢 MENTIONS#33,186$2Vol: $2,000

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-290,207
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$43,949,960
Total Redeem
$25,402
Portfolio
$101,136
Predictions
1902
total markets
Trades
50732B / 8602S
Daily Volume
$14,250
Account Age
285d
since Sep 23, 2025

Periods

#2
Today
$-472
Vol: $0
Week
$4,506
Vol: $17,442
Month
$5,860
Vol: $10,507
All Time
$-290,207
Vol: $43,949,960

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
99%
72W / 1L events
Realized PnL
$490,369
Win Rate
33%
123W / 254L
Profit Factor
0x
Avg Win
$52
Avg Loss
$-27,519

Top Winners

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on $1,921
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?$1,311
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential elect$980
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány?$437
Will the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) win the 2026 South Korean$247
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?$196
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár?$130
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?$88
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June?$80
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?$66

Top Losers

Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?$-399,515
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meetin$-310,307
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting$-277,631
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?$-229,066
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?$-226,255
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?$-199,704
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meetin$-184,177
Will Trump nominate Michelle Bowman as the next Fed chair?$-151,430
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair?$-145,036
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?$-121,390

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.444
Sortino
-0.422
HHI
162
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.974
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
5.6%
Top-5 markets
20.3%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
252.2
Very active
Markets / Day
1.7
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
14:00 UTC
Median Gap
42s
between trades
Avg Gap
6.2m
between trades
Night Trading
23%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
2.02
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
2.2

Bot Detection

#6
50
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
HIGH
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
HIGH
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 42s — typical for humanSize CV 2.02 — diverse, typical for human23% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.07 — human randomness252 trades/day — automation

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 14:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
133.2
Heavy DCA
<=1
3 entries
<=2
11 entries
<=5
32 entries
<=10
74 entries
<=20
138 entries
<=50
197 entries
>50
184 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)11.1%
Mid (20-55c)15.7%
High (>55c)73.3%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 3.4%

Seoul$-1,797
Houston$-5,588
Paris$-9,292
Munich$-29,992
Madrid$-40,528
Seattle$-46,142
Denver$-115,843
Other$-6,734,414

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.7
Events covered
230

Single bracket

<=1
187 brackets
<=2
203 brackets
<=3
212 brackets
<=4
216 brackets
<=5
219 brackets
<=8
224 brackets
>8
6 brackets

Sessions

#12
11/8/2025, 11:03:13 AM9 trades$280 min
11/10/2025, 2:02:49 AM1 trades$30 min
11/10/2025, 2:58:23 AM1 trades$50 min
11/10/2025, 4:34:27 AM2 trades$31 min
11/11/2025, 7:02:41 AM1 trades$30 min
11/13/2025, 4:44:34 PM2 trades$1000 min
11/13/2025, 6:01:24 PM1 trades$970 min
11/14/2025, 10:59:44 AM1 trades$980 min
11/19/2025, 4:10:55 PM1 trades$940 min
11/19/2025, 4:29:51 PM1 trades$960 min
11/19/2025, 5:20:05 PM5 trades$5593 min
11/19/2025, 5:36:27 PM1 trades$230 min
11/26/2025, 2:11:21 PM3 trades$614 min
12/8/2025, 3:45:47 PM1 trades$30 min
12/8/2025, 4:03:27 PM1 trades$30 min
12/9/2025, 5:53:38 PM2 trades$173 min
12/9/2025, 6:04:36 PM1 trades$150 min
12/9/2025, 6:14:56 PM1 trades$4820 min
12/9/2025, 6:26:14 PM1 trades$160 min
12/9/2025, 9:39:04 PM1 trades$180 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
02-28
04-12
05-25
06-10
07-01
04-30

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
14.5% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 133.2/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.7 br/event