LornaPredicts

@LornaPredicts

#2,12614

0x74957ea27ac4fbdee46d861fdae357859ff67fcf

~130d· 13398 markets · 256350 tradesVol: $20,629,215 @Lornapredicts2026-08-04 13:21:56
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

14
Beginner
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

10% (1104/11523)0/20
0.96x (win $34,493 / loss $36,012)2/15
Annualised Sharpe -0.8900/15
Sortino -1.3760/10
$-0.0114 per $1 invested0/10
HHI 16 (11523 markets)10/10
49/129 profitable days (38%)2/10
Max DD 198% of peak ($4,995 / $2,518)0/10

Badges

5
Profitable
PnL $+85,984
Lottery Player
77% entries < $0.20
Diamond Hands
1% sells
Whale
$133,489 invested
🦉Night Owl
24/24 hours active

Categories

9
CRYPTO#1,673,376$-11,633Vol: $5,101,939
🏛️ POLITICS#930$54,459Vol: $3,807,777
🌤️ WEATHER#228$8,498Vol: $3,660,397
SPORTS#3,286$17,169Vol: $2,871,652
💰 FINANCE#556$10,041Vol: $1,762,415
🎭 CULTURE#1,614$4,770Vol: $1,664,268
💻 TECH#339$5,724Vol: $528,767
📈 ECONOMICS#679,799$-1,311Vol: $479,083
📢 MENTIONS#176,451$-3,795Vol: $337,880

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$90,174
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$20,629,215
Total Redeem
$29,536
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
13398
total markets
Trades
23909B / 1931S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~130d

Periods

#2
Today
$4,432
Vol: $108,812
Week
$2,985
Vol: $398,839
Month
$6,812
Vol: $599,396
All Time
$90,174
Vol: $20,629,215

PnL Analysis

#3

Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology

Win Rate (events)
8%
2852W / 32786L events
Realized PnL
$85,984
Win Rate
8%
2852W / 32786L
Profit Factor
0.96x
Avg Win
$31
Avg Loss
$-4

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $2,060 (0.023952573546172733% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by April 30?$804
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?$665
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10?$590
Will the third-place match be FRA vs ENG at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$588
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$566
Israel closes its airspace by June 15?$519
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14$471
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?$462
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?$428
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$427

Top Losers

U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by June 30?$-1,155
Will Belgium reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$-320
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?$-312
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 27?$-296
Will Russia capture Pokrovka by July 31?$-282
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?$-268
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 5?$-252
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal?$-249
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 June 8-14?$-224
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?$-221

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.046
Sortino
-0.081
HHI
6
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.018
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
0.6%
Top-5 markets
2.2%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
523.2
Very active
Markets / Day
27.3
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
17:00 UTC
Median Gap
3.5m
between trades
Avg Gap
8.2m
between trades
Night Trading
2%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
3.09
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
17 min
Avg Trades / Session
17.5

Bot Detection

#6
55
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
HIGH
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
HIGH
Median gap 208s — normal for humanCV 3.09 — diverse sizes (human-like)2% night trades — normal pattern24/24 hours — around the clock523 trades/day — automation27 markets/day — mass coverage9% maker — normal mix

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 17:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
1.88
Single entry

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)76.5%
Mid (20-55c)8.3%
High (>55c)15.1%

Sessions

#12
4/28/2026, 1:47:26 PM69 trades$2,61673 min
4/7/2026, 4:43:01 AM12 trades$7604 min
6/14/2026, 9:14:03 PM19 trades$64727 min
5/3/2026, 10:57:28 PM3 trades$6195 min
6/16/2026, 4:48:38 PM296 trades$55882 min
4/23/2026, 3:43:22 PM12 trades$5426 min
6/18/2026, 2:08:07 PM15 trades$53624 min
4/28/2026, 1:24:12 PM11 trades$47513 min
5/3/2026, 10:30:36 PM2 trades$4160 min
4/27/2026, 2:19:00 AM12 trades$39719 min
4/16/2026, 11:00:44 PM4 trades$3690 min
4/24/2026, 8:42:00 PM14 trades$3687 min
6/27/2026, 9:34:11 AM6 trades$3518 min
5/18/2026, 11:38:46 AM4 trades$3346 min
6/11/2026, 9:54:00 PM15 trades$33318 min
5/11/2026, 2:20:09 AM5 trades$3292 min
6/7/2026, 7:01:36 PM13 trades$3266 min
6/28/2026, 4:42:37 PM4 trades$3257 min
7/1/2026, 10:13:14 PM5 trades$32510 min
7/8/2026, 2:42:32 PM1 trades$3230 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
03-31
04-16
05-07
05-28
06-18
07-09
07-30

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Max drawdown: 79 days (not recovered)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
4% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
0.8% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 1.88/mkt
Entry Bias
LOW $
L76.5 / M8.3 / H15.1