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@Lost-Property

#11230

0x39d3c773be30fcc73161fc6768f46d563a779ef0

154d· 1851 markets · 13322 tradesVol: $35,160,9612026-06-27T03:59
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

30
Below Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 97%20/20
Profit Factor 0.16x0/15
HHI 6810/10
Profit Days 10%0/10

Summary

Lost-Property is a moderately active trader on Polymarket, ranked #112 on the global profit and loss leaderboard. Over 145 days, they have executed 13,322 trades across 353 markets, generating a net PnL of approximately $1.28 million on a total volume exceeding $35 million. Despite this impressive gross profit, their Smart Score is below average at 30/100, and their portfolio value currently stands at $1,193.59, indicating possible recent capital depletion or reinvestment dynamics.

The trader’s style reflects a high-frequency approach with a strong contrarian and sniper strategy, focusing on quick, targeted trades rather than long-term holds. Lost-Property maintains an extremely low sell percentage (1%) and shows diamond hands tendencies, suggesting a preference for holding positions rather than frequent exits. Their win rate is low at 17.9%, paired with a profit factor of 0.16 and a negative Sharpe ratio (-0.64), implying high risk and volatility in their trading outcomes. The equity trend is upward overall, and their bot score indicates a hybrid manual and automated trading method.

Lost-Property’s strengths lie in their ability to generate substantial volume and an upward equity trend despite a challenging risk profile. Their sniper badge and win streak suggest skill in timing specific trades effectively. However, the low win rate, negative Sharpe ratio, and below-average Smart Score highlight significant risks, including inconsistent profitability and potential vulnerability to market swings. The lack of exposure to weather markets and minimal selling activity further concentrate their strategy, which may limit diversification benefits on Polymarket.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

7
Sniper
Win Rate 97%
Profitable
PnL $+1,278,621
Contrarian
72% entries <$0.50
Diamond Hands
1% sell
Win Streak
48 wins in a row
Whale
$5,864,587
High Roller
$40,445/day

Categories

3
SPORTS#65$1,331,381Vol: $34,187,859
🏛️ POLITICS#16,583$1,115Vol: $31,683
🎭 CULTURE#77,892$7Vol: $1,000

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$1,278,621
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$35,160,961
Total Redeem
$1,287,775
Portfolio
$1,194
Predictions
1851
total markets
Trades
13167B / 155S
Daily Volume
$40,445
Account Age
154d
since Jan 27, 2026

Periods

#2
Today
$26,541
Vol: $19,119
Week
$118,182
Vol: $1,663,939
Month
$166,090
Vol: $4,913,200
All Time
$1,278,621
Vol: $35,160,961

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
97%
242W / 8L events
Realized PnL
$6,043,252
Win Rate
18%
52W / 238L
Profit Factor
0.16x
Avg Win
$14,226
Avg Loss
$-19,374

Top Winners

Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score$125,683
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?$101,350
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5$55,990
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score$42,211
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26?$30,504
France vs. Iraq: France 1st Half O/U 1.5$28,198
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Pr$27,999
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25?$26,585
Germany leading at halftime?$24,087
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5$23,433

Top Losers

Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29?$-152,054
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-17?$-117,184
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-24?$-74,961
Cavaliers vs. Knicks$-74,946
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-24?$-70,411
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-04-12?$-65,023
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-03?$-63,312
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-14?$-59,855
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-08?$-57,143
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-05-24?$-56,860

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.635
Sortino
-0.814
HHI
68
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.709
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
3%
Top-5 markets
9.8%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
103.2
Very active
Markets / Day
2.7
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
17:00 UTC
Median Gap
12s
between trades
Avg Gap
12.1m
between trades
Night Trading
22%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
3.68
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
3.2

Bot Detection

#6
55
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
HIGH
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
HIGH
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 12s — suspiciously fastSize CV 3.68 — diverse, typical for human22% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.22 — human randomness103 trades/day — automation

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 17:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
37.3
Heavy DCA
<=1
37 entries
<=2
82 entries
<=5
138 entries
<=10
177 entries
<=20
227 entries
<=50
291 entries
>50
62 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)0.3%
Mid (20-55c)79%
High (>55c)20.7%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 2.6%

Los Angeles$8,458
Atlanta$0
Houston$0
Miami$-3,767
Dallas$-7,030
São Paulo$-7,523
Seattle$-7,561
New York City$-9,879
San Francisco$-10,220
Chicago$-36,103
Paris$-62,274
Milan$-178,035
Madrid$-321,343
Other$-3,236,068

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.1
Events covered
324

Single bracket

<=1
303 brackets
<=2
318 brackets
<=3
322 brackets
<=4
324 brackets
<=5
324 brackets
<=8
324 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
2/17/2026, 10:48:55 PM1 trades$1,0470 min
2/18/2026, 12:02:10 PM1 trades$1340 min
2/18/2026, 12:13:38 PM1 trades$4030 min
2/18/2026, 12:33:06 PM2 trades$9532 min
2/18/2026, 12:41:24 PM1 trades$4820 min
2/18/2026, 1:10:28 PM1 trades$5080 min
2/18/2026, 2:54:04 PM1 trades$1,0150 min
2/18/2026, 3:02:08 PM1 trades$4750 min
2/18/2026, 4:49:12 PM1 trades$9480 min
2/18/2026, 7:03:12 PM1 trades$2,0000 min
2/18/2026, 7:08:42 PM1 trades$9910 min
2/18/2026, 7:21:24 PM1 trades$9460 min
2/18/2026, 7:47:22 PM1 trades$8830 min
2/18/2026, 7:52:58 PM3 trades$6,3875 min
2/19/2026, 12:20:12 PM1 trades$2,9960 min
2/19/2026, 1:10:14 PM1 trades$3810 min
2/19/2026, 1:25:30 PM1 trades$3120 min
2/19/2026, 1:36:42 PM1 trades$2120 min
2/19/2026, 1:42:10 PM2 trades$7313 min
2/19/2026, 1:54:50 PM1 trades$6920 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
02-18
03-12
04-02
04-20
05-07
05-24
06-22

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
1.2% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 37.3/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.1 br/event