Polydata

@Lost-Property

#330100

0x39d3c773be30fcc73161fc6768f46d563a779ef0

110d· 1439 markets · 11047 tradesVol: $25,420,6732026-05-15T22:16
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

100
Elite
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 95%20/20
Profit Factor 349.18x15/15
Sharpe 1.02015/15
Sortino 67.69410/10
EV $+28.12710/10
HHI 7610/10
Profit Days 95%10/10
DD/Peak 0%10/10

Summary

Lost-Property is an active trader on Polymarket, ranked #330 on the global PnL leaderboard with a net profit of $445,866.56. Over 247 days, they executed 11,047 trades across 337 markets, generating a total volume exceeding $25 million. Their portfolio value currently stands at $239,211.82, supported by a Sharpe ratio of 1.02, indicating moderate risk-adjusted returns. Despite a win rate of just 20.8%, Lost-Property maintains a stable equity trend with zero days of maximum drawdown duration, reflecting effective risk management.

The trading approach of Lost-Property appears to be contrarian and selective, as evidenced by a low sell percentage of 2% and a "Sniper" badge. They focus on a broad range of markets but avoid weather-related ones entirely. Their profit factor of 0.28 suggests that while many trades may not be profitable, the gains on winning trades compensate sufficiently. The semi-bot score of 50/100 indicates a hybrid strategy combining automated and manual trading. Lost-Property demonstrates patience and conviction, consistent with their "Diamond Hands" badge and low portfolio volatility.

Key strengths for Lost-Property include disciplined risk control and a resilient equity curve despite a relatively low win rate. Their contrarian style and selective selling may help capture outsized returns on specific events. However, the low profit factor and win rate hint at potential vulnerabilities during sustained market shifts. The semi-automated approach balances consistency with flexibility but may face challenges in rapidly changing conditions. Overall, Lost-Property’s track record on Polymarket reflects a cautious yet profitable strategy with steady performance.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

9
Sniper
Win Rate 95%
Profitable
PnL $+445,867
Contrarian
74% entries <$0.50
Diamond Hands
2% sell
Win Streak
47 wins in a row
Whale
$5,011,272
Consistent
92/97 days
High Roller
$20,289/day
Cool Head
DD 0%

Categories

3
SPORTS#173$446,509Vol: $25,403,331
🏛️ POLITICS#1,508,576$-649Vol: $16,342
🎭 CULTURE#74,076$7Vol: $1,000

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$445,867
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$25,420,673
Total Redeem
$1,500,732
Portfolio
$239,212
Predictions
1439
total markets
Trades
10857B / 190S
Daily Volume
$20,289
Account Age
110d
since Jan 27, 2026

Periods

#2
Today
$70,408
Vol: $281,673
Week
$64,819
Vol: $2,373,191
Month
$266,092
Vol: $5,978,936
All Time
$445,867
Vol: $25,420,673

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
95%
251W / 12L events
Realized PnL
$4,788,521
Win Rate
21%
52W / 198L
Profit Factor
0.28x
Avg Win
$16,604
Avg Loss
$-15,642

Top Winners

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Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-11?$123,649
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-05-07?$63,375
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06?$58,553
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-10?$56,994
UFC 328: Jim Miller vs. Jared Gordon (Lightweight, Prelims)$38,038
76ers vs. Knicks: 1H Moneyline$31,301
Knicks vs. 76ers$29,536
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card)$20,103
Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2026-05-08?$19,206

Top Losers

Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29?$-152,054
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-04-12?$-65,023
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-03?$-63,312
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-14?$-59,855
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-08?$-57,143
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-04?$-54,147
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-22?$-54,023
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-03-19?$-53,941
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-11?$-53,151
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-04-17?$-49,705

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
1.020
Sortino
67.694
HHI
76
Diversified
EV per $1
$28.127
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
3.5%
Top-5 markets
10.9%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
102.4
Very active
Markets / Day
3.1
Active Hours
23/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
18:00 UTC
Median Gap
16s
between trades
Avg Gap
11.1m
between trades
Night Trading
15%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
3.47
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.3

Bot Detection

#6
50
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
HIGH
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
HIGH
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 16s — typical for humanSize CV 3.47 — diverse, typical for human15% at night — different timezone?23/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.14 — human randomness102 trades/day — automation

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 18:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
32.2
Heavy DCA
<=1
51 entries
<=2
96 entries
<=5
153 entries
<=10
184 entries
<=20
230 entries
<=50
287 entries
>50
50 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)0.4%
Mid (20-55c)79.7%
High (>55c)19.9%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 2.4%

Seattle$7,861
Atlanta$3,317
Los Angeles$860
Miami$-3,764
Dallas$-7,030
San Francisco$-9,486
New York City$-9,879
Chicago$-11,387
Paris$-60,740
Milan$-98,822
Madrid$-252,370
Other$-1,792,230

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.1
Events covered
320

Single bracket

<=1
305 brackets
<=2
318 brackets
<=3
320 brackets
<=4
320 brackets
<=5
320 brackets
<=8
320 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
1/27/2026, 11:10:21 PM1 trades$9960 min
2/15/2026, 2:21:51 AM1 trades$130 min
2/15/2026, 3:14:53 AM1 trades$30 min
2/15/2026, 3:25:49 AM1 trades$30 min
2/15/2026, 3:31:29 AM1 trades$30 min
2/15/2026, 3:44:49 AM1 trades$200 min
2/15/2026, 4:01:59 AM2 trades$233 min
2/15/2026, 4:39:51 AM1 trades$200 min
2/15/2026, 5:28:55 AM1 trades$30 min
2/15/2026, 6:40:29 AM1 trades$100 min
2/15/2026, 8:29:53 AM1 trades$200 min
2/15/2026, 8:48:55 AM3 trades$1431 min
2/15/2026, 8:55:59 AM2 trades$232 min
2/15/2026, 9:04:35 AM6 trades$336 min
2/15/2026, 9:18:49 AM1 trades$200 min
2/15/2026, 10:38:57 AM1 trades$30 min
2/15/2026, 11:00:55 AM1 trades$30 min
2/15/2026, 1:22:51 PM2 trades$132 min
2/15/2026, 2:56:31 PM1 trades$30 min
2/15/2026, 3:02:01 PM1 trades$30 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-30
02-25
03-13
03-31
04-17
05-04
10-04

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
1.7% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 32.2/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.1 br/event