Polydata

@Loyal-Gavel

#2,714,57671

0x5637e85e116455e5faef6e44655f4ca9635921f4

221d· 6014 markets · 4025 tradesVol: $6,537,0502026-05-16T07:14
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

71
Very Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 98%20/20
Profit Factor 0.01x0/15
Sharpe 0.58111/15
Sortino 96809.93410/10
HHI 4610/10
Profit Days 100%10/10
DD/Peak 0%10/10

Summary

Loyal-Gavel is an experienced and moderately active trader on Polymarket, with 4,025 trades executed across 865 markets over 444 days. Despite a substantial total volume of over $6.5 million, their net PnL stands at negative $12,703.84, placing them at rank #2,714,576 on the global leaderboard. Their portfolio value remains stable around $12,441, supported by a Sharpe ratio of 0.58 and a Smart Score rated as very good (71/100).

The trader shows a strong preference for weather markets, which constitute 90% of their activity. Loyal-Gavel’s trading style is characterized by a high win rate of 75.8%, indicating consistent success in individual trades, yet a very low profit factor of 0.01 suggests minimal profitability overall. Their risk profile appears cautious, with a low sell percentage of 5% and a maximum drawdown duration of zero days, implying tight risk controls and limited exposure. The mix of semi-automated and manual approaches is reflected in a moderate bot score of 45/100.

Loyal-Gavel’s key strengths include a stable equity trend and a strong ability to maintain winning trades, as highlighted by badges like Sniper and Diamond Hands. However, the negative net PnL and low profit factor indicate potential issues with trade sizing or exit strategies that may limit profitability. Additionally, the heavy focus on weather markets may expose them to sector-specific risks. Overall, their disciplined approach is evident, but improvements in converting wins into profits could enhance their Polymarket performance.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

7
Sniper
Win Rate 98%
Diamond Hands
5% sell
Weather Pro
89% weather
Win Streak
619 wins in a row
Whale
$1,020,329
Consistent
111/111 days
High Roller
$2,298/day

Categories

8
🌤️ WEATHER#259,779$-2,264Vol: $4,387,321
CRYPTO#1,493,473$-2,572Vol: $959,579
🎭 CULTURE#771,892$-5,047Vol: $947,628
🏛️ POLITICS#1,527,296$-1,859Vol: $140,725
💰 FINANCE#599,056$-951Vol: $91,441
📈 ECONOMICS#527,161$-4Vol: $6,036
SPORTS#1,116,470$-5Vol: $1,940
💻 TECH#19,687$6Vol: $810

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-12,704
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$6,537,050
Total Redeem
$354,675
Portfolio
$12,441
Predictions
6014
total markets
Trades
3825B / 200S
Daily Volume
$2,298
Account Age
221d
since Oct 9, 2025

Periods

#2
Today
$-1
Vol: $9,907
Week
$291
Vol: $219,831
Month
$4
Vol: $566,376
All Time
$-12,704
Vol: $6,537,050

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
98%
200W / 5L events
Realized PnL
$10,827
Win Rate
76%
631W / 201L
Profit Factor
0.01x
Avg Win
$8
Avg Loss
$-3,055

Top Winners

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 1$969
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?$763
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on May$470
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on May$439
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 15?$332
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 8?$306
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on May$301
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on May 11?$270
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 44°F or higher o$150
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 25°C or below on May$125

Top Losers

Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 22 to January 24, $-16,205
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 74°F or higher on Marc$-15,984
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from January 24 to January 26, 202$-13,421
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on Feb$-13,261
Will Elon Musk post 110-119 tweets from January 1 to January 3, 2$-12,998
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from January 24 to January 26, 2$-12,673
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 202$-12,649
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from January 23 to January 30,$-10,989
Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C or higher on Februa$-10,703
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from February 2$-10,538

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.581
Sortino
inf
HHI
46
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.604
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
1.6%
Top-5 markets
7%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
23.1
Active
Markets / Day
5.0
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
8:00 UTC
Median Gap
1.6m
between trades
Avg Gap
34.4m
between trades
Night Trading
26%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
2.67
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
2.7

Bot Detection

#6
45
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 96s — typical for humanSize CV 2.67 — diverse, typical for human26% at night — bot never sleeps24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.01 — human randomness23 trades/day — suspiciously high

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 8:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
4.4
Moderate DCA
<=1
247 entries
<=2
423 entries
<=5
633 entries
<=10
791 entries
<=20
853 entries
<=50
863 entries
>50
2 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)1%
Mid (20-55c)2.1%
High (>55c)96.8%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 15.9%

Guangzhou$285
Wuhan$85
Kuala Lumpur$27
Jakarta$23
Denver$17
Los Angeles$13
Houston$8
Madrid$4
Munich$4
Qingdao$2
Cape Town$2
Shanghai$-35
Lucknow$-131
Singapore$-229
Shenzhen$-346
Chengdu$-418
Austin$-779
Paris$-1,023

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
2.3
Events covered
374

Moderate coverage

<=1
181 brackets
<=2
249 brackets
<=3
296 brackets
<=4
327 brackets
<=5
347 brackets
<=8
374 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
11/23/2025, 5:32:03 AM1 trades$1000 min
11/30/2025, 8:52:08 AM1 trades$200 min
12/19/2025, 1:25:57 AM2 trades$9321 min
12/21/2025, 8:01:11 AM1 trades$4960 min
12/21/2025, 6:07:45 PM1 trades$1470 min
12/22/2025, 1:22:10 AM4 trades$1,4304 min
12/22/2025, 7:11:43 AM1 trades$280 min
12/22/2025, 2:24:23 PM1 trades$1,9860 min
12/22/2025, 5:21:05 PM3 trades$3691 min
12/23/2025, 1:30:31 AM1 trades$290 min
12/23/2025, 1:43:19 AM2 trades$3,7000 min
12/23/2025, 3:40:19 AM3 trades$2205 min
12/23/2025, 8:11:53 AM2 trades$1,0990 min
12/23/2025, 1:36:43 PM2 trades$1,0971 min
12/23/2025, 2:20:01 PM1 trades$360 min
12/24/2025, 1:23:39 AM63 trades$5,95722 min
12/24/2025, 10:39:31 AM4 trades$1,4824 min
12/24/2025, 2:48:07 PM1 trades$1,0980 min
12/25/2025, 1:04:25 AM2 trades$3,6461 min
12/25/2025, 2:40:29 AM1 trades$1490 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
12-30
01-24
02-17
03-09
04-13
06-30

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
WEATHER
89.5% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
5% sell
DCA Style
MODERATE
avg 4.4/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 2.3 br/event