Polydata
Data is 21 days old — refreshing in background...

@Loyal-Gavel

#2,790,41171

0x5637e85e116455e5faef6e44655f4ca9635921f4

260d· 7053 markets · 4102 tradesVol: $7,067,0952026-06-06T07:41
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

71
Very Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 99%20/20
Profit Factor 0.02x0/15
Sharpe 0.58211/15
Sortino 95853.47110/10
HHI 5410/10
Profit Days 100%10/10
DD/Peak 0%10/10

Summary

Loyal-Gavel is a moderately active trader on Polymarket, with 4,102 trades executed over 444 days across 808 markets. Despite a substantial total volume of over $7 million, their net PnL stands at -$12,090.79, placing them at rank #2,790,411 on the global leaderboard. Their Smart Score of 71/100 indicates very good trading acumen, though their Profit Factor of 0.02 suggests challenges in converting volume into profit. The trader’s portfolio value remains stable at roughly $29,571, with a Sharpe Ratio of 0.58 reflecting modest risk-adjusted returns.

Loyal-Gavel shows a clear preference for weather-related markets, which comprise about 90% of their trades. Their trading style is characterized by a high win rate of 74.5% and a low sell percentage of 3%, pointing to a patient, diamond-hands approach with an emphasis on holding positions rather than frequent trading. The low Bot Score suggests the trader is likely human, capable of making nuanced decisions rather than relying on automated strategies. The equity trend is flat, indicating consistent but limited growth over time.

The trader’s strengths include a strong win rate and volume capacity, supported by badges like Sniper and Diamond Hands, which highlight precision and discipline. However, Loyal-Gavel’s negative net PnL and extremely low Profit Factor indicate inefficiencies in capitalizing on winning trades. The flat equity trend and a Sharpe Ratio below 1 signal moderate risk-taking without commensurate rewards. These factors suggest that while Loyal-Gavel is active and skilled, their overall profitability on Polymarket could improve.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

7
Sniper
Win Rate 99%
Diamond Hands
3% sell
Weather Pro
90% weather
Win Streak
561 wins in a row
Whale
$927,865
Consistent
115/115 days
High Roller
$2,090/day

Categories

8
🌤️ WEATHER#274,576$-1,732Vol: $4,914,892
CRYPTO#1,542,728$-2,491Vol: $962,053
🎭 CULTURE#791,967$-5,047Vol: $947,628
🏛️ POLITICS#1,560,687$-1,859Vol: $140,725
💰 FINANCE#617,247$-951Vol: $91,441
📈 ECONOMICS#537,608$-4Vol: $6,036
SPORTS#1,139,857$-5Vol: $1,940
💻 TECH#20,518$6Vol: $810

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-12,091
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$7,067,095
Total Redeem
$274,329
Portfolio
$29,571
Predictions
7053
total markets
Trades
3970B / 132S
Daily Volume
$2,090
Account Age
260d
since Oct 9, 2025

Periods

#2
Today
$10
Vol: $1,370
Week
$210
Vol: $165,962
Month
$210
Vol: $131,065
All Time
$-12,091
Vol: $7,067,095

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
100%
205W / 1L events
Realized PnL
$10,990
Win Rate
75%
571W / 195L
Profit Factor
0.02x
Avg Win
$21
Avg Loss
$-3,103

Top Winners

Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on May$922
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?$763
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 4?$572
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 1?$501
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 3?$501
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 20°C or below on June 4?$501
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 5?$501
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 5?$501
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 1?$500
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 5?$500

Top Losers

Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 22 to January 24, $-16,205
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 74°F or higher on Marc$-15,984
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from January 24 to January 26, 202$-13,421
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on Feb$-13,261
Will Elon Musk post 110-119 tweets from January 1 to January 3, 2$-12,998
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from January 24 to January 26, 2$-12,673
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 202$-12,649
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from January 23 to January 30,$-10,989
Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C or higher on Februa$-10,703
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from February 2$-10,538

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.582
Sortino
inf
HHI
54
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.656
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
1.7%
Top-5 markets
7.7%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
21.0
Active
Markets / Day
4.1
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
8:00 UTC
Median Gap
1.5m
between trades
Avg Gap
34.5m
between trades
Night Trading
23%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
2.96
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.4

Bot Detection

#6
35
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 90s — typical for humanSize CV 2.97 — diverse, typical for human23% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.05 — human randomness21 trades/day — suspiciously high

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 8:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
4.9
Moderate DCA
<=1
211 entries
<=2
355 entries
<=5
577 entries
<=10
724 entries
<=20
789 entries
<=50
804 entries
>50
4 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)1%
Mid (20-55c)2.1%
High (>55c)96.9%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 15.4%

Kuala Lumpur$1,033
Lucknow$472
Singapore$261
Guangzhou$246
Denver$10
Wuhan$9
Amsterdam$6
Los Angeles$4
Qingdao$0
Houston$-77
Austin$-288
Shenzhen$-296
Shanghai$-499
Chengdu$-529
Paris$-714
Dallas$-1,787
Beijing$-2,771
Lagos$-3,047

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
2.3
Events covered
359

Moderate coverage

<=1
189 brackets
<=2
242 brackets
<=3
289 brackets
<=4
315 brackets
<=5
332 brackets
<=8
356 brackets
>8
3 brackets

Sessions

#12
11/23/2025, 5:32:03 AM1 trades$1000 min
11/30/2025, 8:52:08 AM1 trades$200 min
12/21/2025, 8:01:11 AM1 trades$4960 min
12/21/2025, 6:07:45 PM1 trades$1470 min
12/22/2025, 2:24:23 PM1 trades$1,9860 min
12/23/2025, 1:43:19 AM2 trades$3,7000 min
12/23/2025, 1:36:43 PM2 trades$1,0971 min
12/23/2025, 2:20:01 PM1 trades$360 min
12/24/2025, 10:43:09 AM1 trades$3490 min
12/24/2025, 2:48:07 PM1 trades$1,0980 min
12/25/2025, 1:04:25 AM2 trades$3,6461 min
12/25/2025, 2:40:29 AM1 trades$1490 min
12/25/2025, 3:31:21 AM1 trades$210 min
12/25/2025, 3:43:33 AM1 trades$2,9850 min
12/25/2025, 4:16:33 AM1 trades$1,4490 min
12/25/2025, 4:46:49 AM1 trades$910 min
12/25/2025, 3:03:15 PM1 trades$9980 min
12/25/2025, 11:58:29 PM1 trades$9950 min
12/26/2025, 12:37:39 AM1 trades$3,7290 min
12/26/2025, 1:15:35 AM1 trades$1200 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
12-31
01-30
02-20
03-19
04-21
01-01

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
WEATHER
89.6% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
3.2% sell
DCA Style
MODERATE
avg 4.9/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 2.3 br/event