Polydata

@M888

#79459

0x43440ab002eaac9fede6f9d21bea96d84228f90d

577d· 1512 markets · 7691 tradesVol: $10,825,2492026-06-29T16:50
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

59
Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 92%20/20
Profit Factor 5.13x15/15
EV $+1.29110/10
HHI 43910/10
Profit Days 45%4/10
DD/Peak 101524%0/10

Summary

M888 is an experienced and moderately active trader on Polymarket, ranked #794 on the global PnL leaderboard. Over two years and nearly 7,700 trades, M888 has generated a net profit of $237,743.35 from a total traded volume exceeding $10.8 million. Despite a substantial portfolio value of $227,000, the trader’s Sharpe ratio of -0.22 and a profit factor of 0.27 indicate challenges in risk-adjusted returns. The equity trend shows a recent downward movement, suggesting some erosion of gains.

M888’s trading style is diverse, having engaged in 317 different markets but shows no participation in weather-related markets. The trader exhibits a moderate risk profile, with a win rate of 42.7% and a sell percentage of 33%, implying selective profit-taking. M888’s badges such as Sniper and Contrarian reflect a preference for timing trades carefully and often taking positions against prevailing sentiment. The active trading over 730 days without extended drawdown periods points to a disciplined approach, though the Bot Score suggests human-driven, fast execution rather than automation.

Key strengths for M888 include a large volume of trades and significant profits, demonstrating resilience and adaptability on Polymarket. However, the negative Sharpe ratio and profit factor below 1 raise concerns about overall efficiency and risk management. Additionally, the recent downward equity trend warrants caution, as it may reflect increasing volatility or deteriorating strategy effectiveness. M888’s contrarian style can be advantageous but also exposes the trader to extended periods of underperformance.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

7
Sniper
Win Rate 92%
Profitable
PnL $+237,743
Lottery Player
35% entries <$0.20
Contrarian
59% entries <$0.50
Win Streak
11 wins in a row
Whale
$1,822,715
High Roller
$2,497/day

Categories

9
🏛️ POLITICS#243$201,135Vol: $8,094,039
🎭 CULTURE#1,278$6,028Vol: $878,808
📢 MENTIONS#272$6,630Vol: $539,322
💻 TECH#217$8,083Vol: $414,376
CRYPTO#14,791$2,953Vol: $391,836
📈 ECONOMICS#509$11,360Vol: $350,434
💰 FINANCE#3,566$1,170Vol: $127,225
SPORTS#62,877$339Vol: $13,141
🌤️ WEATHER#194,099$-1Vol: $1,448

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$237,743
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$10,825,249
Total Redeem
$877,456
Portfolio
$227,060
Predictions
1512
total markets
Trades
5125B / 2566S
Daily Volume
$2,497
Account Age
577d
since Dec 1, 2024

Periods

#2
Today
$261
Vol: $2,116
Week
$261
Vol: $6,786
Month
$12,553
Vol: $534,388
All Time
$237,743
Vol: $10,825,249

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
92%
205W / 19L events
Realized PnL
$298,503
Win Rate
43%
102W / 137L
Profit Factor
0.27x
Avg Win
$1,859
Avg Loss
$-5,170

Top Winners

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?$46,691
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?$43,263
Netanyahu out by March 31?$16,913
Will Trump shake hands with Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the World Econ$9,494
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?$9,376
Will the criminal investigation into Jerome Powell be dropped by $4,450
Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30?$4,357
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?$3,850
Will the Senate pass the SAVE America Act (H.R. 7296)?$3,257
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?$3,202

Top Losers

Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?$-131,264
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in January?$-78,454
Maduro out by January 31, 2026?$-55,572
TikTok sale announced in 2025?$-45,030
Will Trump shake hands with Emmanuel Macron at the World Economic$-44,692
House passes Epstein disclosure bill/resolution in 2025?$-37,547
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later?$-27,680
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?$-24,087
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?$-23,027
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15?$-22,342

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.218
Sortino
-0.172
HHI
439
Diversified
EV per $1
$1.291
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
10.6%
Top-5 markets
41.1%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
14.7
Active
Markets / Day
0.6
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
15:00 UTC
Median Gap
11.0m
between trades
Avg Gap
1.4h
between trades
Night Trading
17%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
8.17
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
0 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.1

Bot Detection

#6
25
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 660s — typical for humanSize CV 8.17 — diverse, typical for human17% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 0.98 — human randomness15 trades/day — very active

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 15:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
16.2
Heavy DCA
<=1
36 entries
<=2
57 entries
<=5
120 entries
<=10
182 entries
<=20
236 entries
<=50
298 entries
>50
19 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)35.5%
Mid (20-55c)25.6%
High (>55c)38.9%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 63.2%

Lebanon$0
Other$-518,716

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.5
Events covered
213

Single bracket

<=1
159 brackets
<=2
186 brackets
<=3
201 brackets
<=4
207 brackets
<=5
210 brackets
<=8
213 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
1/23/2025, 6:50:41 AM1 trades$540 min
1/23/2025, 10:15:26 PM1 trades$430 min
1/23/2025, 10:45:02 PM1 trades$710 min
1/24/2025, 3:20:04 AM1 trades$1910 min
1/24/2025, 3:28:06 AM1 trades$230 min
1/25/2025, 4:48:49 AM1 trades$6940 min
1/25/2025, 5:13:45 AM1 trades$60 min
1/25/2025, 7:25:39 AM1 trades$910 min
1/25/2025, 3:09:54 PM1 trades$900 min
1/27/2025, 6:56:27 PM1 trades$1000 min
1/30/2025, 2:46:58 AM1 trades$150 min
1/30/2025, 11:22:00 AM1 trades$350 min
1/30/2025, 7:01:37 PM2 trades$214 min
2/1/2025, 1:56:39 AM1 trades$120 min
2/1/2025, 11:21:00 AM1 trades$90 min
2/1/2025, 3:32:44 PM1 trades$390 min
2/2/2025, 12:14:10 AM1 trades$20 min
2/2/2025, 12:46:44 AM1 trades$220 min
2/3/2025, 10:07:27 AM1 trades$4640 min
2/4/2025, 3:26:08 PM1 trades$160 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
09-23
11-30
02-24
03-31
04-30
06-30

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
33.4% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 16.2/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.5 br/event