Polydata

@M888

#69593

0x43440ab002eaac9fede6f9d21bea96d84228f90d

532d· 1456 markets · 7374 tradesVol: $9,914,0492026-05-15T20:06
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

93
Elite
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 90%20/20
Profit Factor 4.87x15/15
Sharpe 0.4048/15
Sortino 16.40410/10
EV $+1.29210/10
HHI 36910/10
Profit Days 92%10/10
DD/Peak 0%10/10

Summary

M888 is an experienced and moderately active trader on Polymarket, ranked #695 on the global PnL leaderboard with a net profit of $226,725.93 over 730 days. With 7,374 trades across 305 markets and nearly $10 million in total volume, M888 maintains a stable equity trend and a portfolio valued at $210,715.30. Their Smart Score of 93/100 places them in the elite category, highlighting consistent performance despite a relatively modest Sharpe ratio of 0.40.

M888’s trading style appears diversified across many markets, avoiding weather-related ones entirely. Their win rate of 42.2% combined with a low profit factor of 0.18 suggests a risk-taking approach with emphasis on occasional large payoffs rather than steady small wins. The trader’s 33% sell rate and badges like “Sniper” and “Contrarian” indicate a preference for selective, timely entries and exits, possibly capitalizing on market mispricings or momentum shifts. M888’s activity pattern is steady, without prolonged drawdowns, hinting at disciplined risk management despite a somewhat aggressive stance.

The key strength of M888 lies in their ability to generate significant profits while maintaining a stable portfolio value and avoiding long drawdown periods. However, the low profit factor and win rate imply that many trades do not yield gains, posing potential risks if market conditions shift unfavorably. Their human-like interface speed suggests tactical decision-making, but the relatively low Bot Score may limit scalability or automation benefits. Overall, M888’s performance on Polymarket reflects a high-risk, high-reward strategy with resilience but requires careful monitoring of downside exposures.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

9
Sniper
Win Rate 90%
Profitable
PnL $+226,726
Lottery Player
33% entries <$0.20
Contrarian
57% entries <$0.50
Win Streak
17 wins in a row
Whale
$1,638,470
Consistent
69/75 days
High Roller
$2,244/day
Cool Head
DD 0%

Categories

8
🏛️ POLITICS#226$196,506Vol: $7,409,384
🎭 CULTURE#1,161$6,190Vol: $875,704
📢 MENTIONS#265$6,630Vol: $539,322
💻 TECH#202$8,083Vol: $414,376
📈 ECONOMICS#681$6,949Vol: $349,586
CRYPTO#22,641$1,458Vol: $182,949
💰 FINANCE#5,775$524Vol: $114,969
SPORTS#60,787$327Vol: $24,370

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$226,726
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$9,914,049
Total Redeem
$632,822
Portfolio
$210,715
Predictions
1456
total markets
Trades
4918B / 2456S
Daily Volume
$2,244
Account Age
532d
since Dec 1, 2024

Periods

#2
Today
$-2,428
Vol: $34,619
Week
$-4,573
Vol: $84,415
Month
$32,661
Vol: $113,187
All Time
$226,726
Vol: $9,914,049

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
93%
201W / 14L events
Realized PnL
$290,038
Win Rate
42%
103W / 141L
Profit Factor
0.18x
Avg Win
$1,226
Avg Loss
$-5,096

Top Winners

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?$46,691
Netanyahu out by March 31?$16,913
Will Trump shake hands with Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the World Econ$9,494
Will the criminal investigation into Jerome Powell be dropped by $4,450
Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30?$4,357
Will the Senate pass the SAVE America Act (H.R. 7296)?$3,257
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?$2,223
Will Vance visit the Middle East by April 10?$2,123
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10?$2,093
Will Trump say "April Fool" or "April Fool's" during Address to t$1,793

Top Losers

Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?$-131,264
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in January?$-78,454
Maduro out by January 31, 2026?$-55,572
TikTok sale announced in 2025?$-45,030
Will Trump shake hands with Emmanuel Macron at the World Economic$-44,692
House passes Epstein disclosure bill/resolution in 2025?$-37,547
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later?$-27,680
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?$-24,087
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?$-23,027
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15?$-22,342

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.404
Sortino
16.404
HHI
369
Diversified
EV per $1
$1.292
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
10.4%
Top-5 markets
36%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
15.5
Active
Markets / Day
0.6
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
19:00 UTC
Median Gap
11.4m
between trades
Avg Gap
1.3h
between trades
Night Trading
17%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
8.36
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
0 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.1

Bot Detection

#6
35
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 686s — typical for humanSize CV 8.36 — diverse, typical for human17% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 0.96 — human randomness15 trades/day — very active302 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 19:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
16.1
Heavy DCA
<=1
33 entries
<=2
51 entries
<=5
107 entries
<=10
169 entries
<=20
228 entries
<=50
288 entries
>50
17 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)32.7%
Mid (20-55c)26.9%
High (>55c)40.4%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 65.4%

Lebanon$0
Other$-592,172

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.5
Events covered
202

Single bracket

<=1
150 brackets
<=2
177 brackets
<=3
189 brackets
<=4
194 brackets
<=5
199 brackets
<=8
202 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
1/23/2025, 6:50:41 AM1 trades$540 min
1/23/2025, 10:15:26 PM1 trades$430 min
1/23/2025, 10:45:02 PM1 trades$710 min
1/24/2025, 3:20:04 AM1 trades$1910 min
1/24/2025, 3:28:06 AM1 trades$230 min
1/25/2025, 4:48:49 AM1 trades$6940 min
1/25/2025, 5:13:45 AM1 trades$60 min
1/25/2025, 7:25:39 AM1 trades$910 min
1/25/2025, 3:09:54 PM1 trades$900 min
1/27/2025, 6:56:27 PM1 trades$1000 min
1/30/2025, 2:46:58 AM1 trades$150 min
1/30/2025, 11:22:00 AM1 trades$350 min
1/30/2025, 7:01:37 PM2 trades$214 min
2/1/2025, 1:56:39 AM1 trades$120 min
2/1/2025, 11:21:00 AM1 trades$90 min
2/1/2025, 3:32:44 PM1 trades$390 min
2/2/2025, 12:14:10 AM1 trades$20 min
2/2/2025, 12:46:44 AM1 trades$220 min
2/3/2025, 10:07:27 AM1 trades$4640 min
2/4/2025, 3:26:08 PM1 trades$160 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
04-29
09-17
11-18
01-31
04-15
11-04

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
33.3% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 16.1/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.5 br/event