@MP1261

#2,201,49935

0xdc4bcfa627afa3aa26037cf135364eef1f51b8af

~16d· 34 markets · 121 tradesVol: $2,1332026-08-04 19:45:23
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

35
Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

67% (20/30)18.3/20
0.26x (win $13 / loss $50)0/15
Annualised Sharpe -5.6290/15
Sortino -5.4510/10
$-0.1118 per $1 invested0/10
HHI 524 (30 markets)9.9/10
7/12 profitable days (58%)7.1/10
Max DD 864% of peak ($43 / $5)0/10

Badges

2
Sniper
Win rate 67%
Win Streak
5 wins in a row

Categories

3
🌤️ WEATHER#258,666$-18Vol: $1,987
⚽ SPORTS#1,339,545$-10Vol: $75
🏛️ POLITICS#949,314$-1Vol: $72

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-29
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$2,133
Total Redeem
$0
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
34
total markets
Trades
59B / 62S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~16d

Periods

#2
Today
$0
Vol: $0
Week
$-1
Vol: $12
Month
$-3
Vol: $176
All Time
$-29
Vol: $2,133

PnL Analysis

#3

Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology

Win Rate (events)
67%
20W / 10L events
Realized PnL
$-29
Win Rate
67%
20W / 10L
Profit Factor
0.26x
Avg Win
$1
Avg Loss
$-10

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $5 (0.16717531366564936% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on July 3?$2
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 36°C on July 18?$1
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on July 11?$1
Will France win on 2026-07-04?$1
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 77°F or below on July 18?$1
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 37°C on July 23?$1
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on July 3?$1
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on July 3?$1
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on July 20?$1
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on July 11?$0

Top Losers

Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$-37
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on July 20?$-4
Spain vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5$-4
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on July 5?$-4
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 36°C on July 20?$-1

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.282
Sortino
-0.189
HHI
363
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.132
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
9.1%
Top-5 markets
31.6%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
3.7
Moderate
Markets / Day
1.0
Active Hours
17/24
Extended
Peak Hour
4:00 UTC
Median Gap
1.5h
between trades
Avg Gap
4.0h
between trades
Night Trading
30%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
0.73
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
49
Avg Duration
0 min
Avg Trades / Session
2.5

Bot Detection

#6
15
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 5457s — normal for humanCV 0.73 — diverse sizes (human-like)30% night trades — never sleeps17/24 hours — normal schedule4 trades/day — normal1.0 markets/day — normal49% maker — normal mix

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 4:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
3.9
Moderate DCA

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)3.4%
Mid (20-55c)1.7%
High (>55c)94.9%

Sessions

#12
8/1/2026, 4:15:18 AM5 trades$441 min
7/20/2026, 12:41:28 PM2 trades$400 min
7/14/2026, 4:59:53 AM6 trades$365 min
7/11/2026, 8:16:44 AM2 trades$310 min
7/18/2026, 1:48:04 PM4 trades$220 min
7/18/2026, 8:43:30 AM2 trades$200 min
7/18/2026, 8:27:55 PM2 trades$200 min
7/13/2026, 2:10:23 PM2 trades$200 min
7/23/2026, 5:27:03 AM2 trades$170 min
8/1/2026, 4:25:38 AM2 trades$160 min
7/13/2026, 3:16:04 PM4 trades$151 min
7/11/2026, 5:14:01 AM4 trades$151 min
7/4/2026, 2:57:16 AM2 trades$150 min
7/3/2026, 7:09:13 PM6 trades$146 min
7/23/2026, 4:11:46 AM4 trades$134 min
7/20/2026, 8:41:10 PM2 trades$120 min
7/11/2026, 5:07:22 AM2 trades$110 min
7/20/2026, 5:29:36 AM3 trades$110 min
7/18/2026, 10:22:33 AM4 trades$110 min
8/3/2026, 12:13:17 PM1 trades$100 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
07-02
07-04
07-11
07-14
07-18
07-20

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Max drawdown: 16 days (not recovered)

Profile

#14
Specialization
WEATHER
90% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
51.2% sell
DCA Style
MODERATE
avg 3.9/mkt
Entry Bias
HIGH $
L3.4 / M1.7 / H94.9