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@Muffled-Baboon

#11,07181

0x58879b12fb0ff9e7e048db7cfe901142134d994e

93d· 1520 markets · 10545 tradesVol: $968,6172026-06-26T17:59
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

81
Very Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 40%5/20
Profit Factor 2.44x15/15
Sharpe 0.73514/15
Sortino 0.6957/10
EV $+1.35910/10
HHI 7810/10
Profit Days 82%10/10
DD/Peak 10%10/10

Summary

Muffled-Baboon is a moderately active trader on Polymarket, with a global PnL rank of #11071. Over 44 days, they executed 10,545 trades across 681 markets, accumulating a net PnL of $12,491.18 on a total volume of $968,617. Their smart score of 81/100 reflects very good trading performance, supported by a Sharpe ratio of 0.74, indicating moderate risk-adjusted returns. Despite this, their profit factor of 0.47 suggests that losses have outweighed gains on average.

The trading style of Muffled-Baboon appears automated, as indicated by a bot score of 70/100 and badges like “Bot” and “DCA Master.” They maintain a contrarian approach and show strong holding discipline with “Diamond Hands,” avoiding selling entirely on Polymarket. Their win rate is 55.9%, which is decent but coupled with a low profit factor, implying many small wins offset by larger losses. The trader focuses broadly across many markets rather than specializing, with no exposure to weather markets and zero sell trades, suggesting a buy-and-hold or dollar-cost averaging strategy.

Muffled-Baboon’s strengths lie in consistent activity, disciplined holding, and a well-structured automated approach, which helps maintain a stable equity trend without drawdowns. However, the low profit factor and zero sell percentage raise concerns about risk management and profit-taking, potentially exposing the trader to larger downside. Their contrarian style may yield unique opportunities but also increases volatility risk. Monitoring adjustments in sell behavior could be critical for future performance improvements.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

10
Profitable
PnL $+12,491
Contrarian
60% entries <$0.50
Diamond Hands
0% sell
DCA Master
avg 15.5 entries/market
Bot
Score 70/100
Win Streak
8 wins in a row
Whale
$156,573
Consistent
32/39 days
High Roller
$3,558/day
Cool Head
DD 10%

Categories

1
SPORTS#2,677$17,737Vol: $728,606

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$12,491
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$968,617
Total Redeem
$36,702
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
1520
total markets
Trades
10545B / 0S
Daily Volume
$3,558
Account Age
93d
since Apr 1, 2026

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
44%
280W / 360L events
Realized PnL
$112,861
Win Rate
56%
99W / 78L
Profit Factor
0.47x
Avg Win
$72
Avg Loss
$-195

Top Winners

Valorant: Paper Rex vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Pacific Playoff$310
Lakers vs. Rockets$296
Huzhou: Veronika Erjavec vs Xiyu Wang$279
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Lavked - Map 1 Winner$265
LoL: Dplus KIA vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner$257
Manchester United FC vs. Brentford FC: Both Teams to Score$241
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-07?$226
Will CD Coquimbo Unido win on 2026-05-07?$223
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Alex de Minaur vs Matteo Arnaldi$211
Yokohama B-Corsairs vs. Brave Thunders$209

Top Losers

Kansas City Royals vs. Cleveland Guardians$-4,503
Rockets vs. Suns$-2,532
Kings vs. Canucks$-1,445
Golden Knights vs. Kraken$-1,342
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-01?$-449
Will FC Seoul win on 2026-05-02?$-407
Will CA Tigre vs. CA Huracán end in a draw?$-384
Will CA Tigre win on 2026-04-20?$-309
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Royal Challengers $-264
Huzhou: Diletta Cherubini vs Ekaterina Reyngold$-254

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.735
Sortino
0.695
HHI
78
Diversified
EV per $1
$1.359
Kelly %
3.1%
Half-Kelly
1.6%
Top-1 market
3.1%
Top-5 markets
12.5%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
285.2
Very active
Markets / Day
18.4
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
19:00 UTC
Median Gap
32s
between trades
Avg Gap
3.8m
between trades
Night Trading
22%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.04
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
5 min
Avg Trades / Session
5.9

Bot Detection

#6
70
BOT (automated trading)HIGH probability

8 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
HIGH
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
HIGH
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
HIGH
Median gap 32s — typical for humanSize CV 1.04 — diverse, typical for human22% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.06 — human randomness285 trades/day — automation18 markets/day — mass coverage762 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 19:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
15.5
Heavy DCA
<=1
116 entries
<=2
169 entries
<=5
300 entries
<=10
403 entries
<=20
539 entries
<=50
628 entries
>50
53 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)18.7%
Mid (20-55c)47.9%
High (>55c)33.4%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 66.8%

Madrid$296
Shenzhen$74
Tokyo$40
Los Angeles$0
Atlanta$0
Shanghai$0
Miami$0
São Paulo$0
Houston$0
San Francisco$0
Paris$0
Dallas$0
Chongqing$0
Milan$0
Toronto$-32
Chicago$-97
Lucknow$-264
Seoul$-426

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.2
Events covered
552

Single bracket

<=1
455 brackets
<=2
520 brackets
<=3
552 brackets
<=4
552 brackets
<=5
552 brackets
<=8
552 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
4/1/2026, 11:56:35 AM1 trades$110 min
4/1/2026, 12:07:47 PM2 trades$61 min
4/1/2026, 12:15:17 PM1 trades$90 min
4/1/2026, 12:42:55 PM1 trades$110 min
4/1/2026, 1:13:09 PM1 trades$110 min
4/1/2026, 1:25:35 PM1 trades$90 min
4/1/2026, 2:35:09 PM1 trades$40 min
4/1/2026, 3:04:19 PM2 trades$80 min
4/1/2026, 3:21:05 PM1 trades$10 min
4/1/2026, 3:33:15 PM2 trades$322 min
4/1/2026, 4:51:19 PM1 trades$40 min
4/1/2026, 4:56:39 PM10 trades$11310 min
4/1/2026, 5:11:47 PM3 trades$287 min
4/1/2026, 5:25:51 PM45 trades$29629 min
4/1/2026, 6:02:49 PM2 trades$92 min
4/1/2026, 6:09:51 PM2 trades$50 min
4/1/2026, 6:19:05 PM10 trades$1898 min
4/2/2026, 1:21:15 AM3 trades$1251 min
4/2/2026, 1:35:53 AM14 trades$18615 min
4/2/2026, 1:57:31 AM33 trades$41920 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
04-01
04-08
04-14
04-20
04-26
05-02
05-09

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
0% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 15.5/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.2 br/event