Polydata

@Muffled-Baboon

#11,34681

0x58879b12fb0ff9e7e048db7cfe901142134d994e

95d· 1520 markets · 10545 tradesVol: $968,6172026-07-04T06:54
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

81
Very Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 40%5/20
Profit Factor 2.44x15/15
Sharpe 0.73514/15
Sortino 0.6957/10
EV $+1.35910/10
HHI 7810/10
Profit Days 82%10/10
DD/Peak 10%10/10

Summary

Muffled-Baboon is an active trader on Polymarket, ranked #11346 on the global PnL leaderboard. Over 44 days, they executed 10,545 trades across 681 markets, generating a net profit of $12,491.18 from nearly $1 million in total volume. Despite a solid Smart Score of 81/100, their profit factor stands at 0.48, indicating the ratio of gross profits to losses is below 1, and their Sharpe Ratio is 0.74, reflecting moderate risk-adjusted returns.

The trading style of Muffled-Baboon appears to be automated, supported by a Bot Score of 70/100 and badges such as "Bot" and "DCA Master." They maintain a contrarian approach with a 56.5% win rate, focusing on accumulation rather than selling, as evidenced by a 0% sell percentage. This suggests a preference for dollar-cost averaging and holding positions through market fluctuations, with no exposure to weather markets. Their equity trend is stable, and they avoid prolonged drawdowns, having zero days of maximum drawdown duration.

Muffled-Baboon’s strengths lie in consistent activity and disciplined execution, leveraging automation to manage a high number of trades efficiently. However, the low profit factor and flat portfolio value raise concerns about overall profitability sustainability. The absence of selling activity might indicate risk exposure if market conditions shift unfavorably. Traders monitoring Muffled-Baboon should note their contrarian, bot-driven strategy delivers steady engagement but with moderate returns and potential downside risks.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

10
Profitable
PnL $+12,491
Contrarian
60% entries <$0.50
Diamond Hands
0% sell
DCA Master
avg 15.5 entries/market
Bot
Score 70/100
Win Streak
8 wins in a row
Whale
$154,968
Consistent
32/39 days
High Roller
$3,522/day
Cool Head
DD 10%

Categories

1
SPORTS#2,840$17,737Vol: $728,606

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$12,491
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$968,617
Total Redeem
$36,702
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
1520
total markets
Trades
10545B / 0S
Daily Volume
$3,522
Account Age
95d
since Apr 1, 2026

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
44%
280W / 360L events
Realized PnL
$112,861
Win Rate
56%
100W / 77L
Profit Factor
0.48x
Avg Win
$72
Avg Loss
$-195

Top Winners

Valorant: Paper Rex vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Pacific Playoff$310
Lakers vs. Rockets$296
Huzhou: Veronika Erjavec vs Xiyu Wang$279
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Lavked - Map 1 Winner$265
LoL: Dplus KIA vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner$257
Manchester United FC vs. Brentford FC: Both Teams to Score$246
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-07?$226
Will CD Coquimbo Unido win on 2026-05-07?$223
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Alex de Minaur vs Matteo Arnaldi$211
Yokohama B-Corsairs vs. Brave Thunders$209

Top Losers

Kansas City Royals vs. Cleveland Guardians$-4,431
Rockets vs. Suns$-2,498
Kings vs. Canucks$-1,445
Golden Knights vs. Kraken$-1,342
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-01?$-449
Will FC Seoul win on 2026-05-02?$-407
Will CA Tigre vs. CA Huracán end in a draw?$-377
Will CA Tigre win on 2026-04-20?$-302
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Royal Challengers $-264
Huzhou: Diletta Cherubini vs Ekaterina Reyngold$-245

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.735
Sortino
0.695
HHI
78
Diversified
EV per $1
$1.359
Kelly %
5.1%
Half-Kelly
2.5%
Top-1 market
3.1%
Top-5 markets
12.5%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
285.2
Very active
Markets / Day
18.4
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
19:00 UTC
Median Gap
32s
between trades
Avg Gap
3.8m
between trades
Night Trading
22%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.04
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
5 min
Avg Trades / Session
5.9

Bot Detection

#6
70
BOT (automated trading)HIGH probability

8 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
HIGH
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
HIGH
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
HIGH
Median gap 32s — typical for humanSize CV 1.04 — diverse, typical for human22% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.06 — human randomness285 trades/day — automation18 markets/day — mass coverage762 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 19:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
15.5
Heavy DCA
<=1
116 entries
<=2
169 entries
<=5
300 entries
<=10
403 entries
<=20
539 entries
<=50
628 entries
>50
53 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)18.8%
Mid (20-55c)47.8%
High (>55c)33.4%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 66.8%

Madrid$303
Shenzhen$74
Tokyo$40
Los Angeles$0
Atlanta$0
Shanghai$0
Miami$0
São Paulo$0
Houston$0
San Francisco$0
Paris$0
Dallas$0
Chongqing$0
Milan$0
Toronto$-30
Chicago$-97
Lucknow$-264
Seoul$-426

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.2
Events covered
552

Single bracket

<=1
455 brackets
<=2
520 brackets
<=3
552 brackets
<=4
552 brackets
<=5
552 brackets
<=8
552 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
4/1/2026, 11:56:35 AM1 trades$110 min
4/1/2026, 12:07:47 PM2 trades$61 min
4/1/2026, 12:15:17 PM1 trades$90 min
4/1/2026, 12:42:55 PM1 trades$110 min
4/1/2026, 1:13:09 PM1 trades$110 min
4/1/2026, 1:25:35 PM1 trades$90 min
4/1/2026, 2:35:09 PM1 trades$40 min
4/1/2026, 3:04:19 PM2 trades$80 min
4/1/2026, 3:21:05 PM1 trades$10 min
4/1/2026, 3:33:15 PM2 trades$322 min
4/1/2026, 4:51:19 PM1 trades$40 min
4/1/2026, 4:56:39 PM10 trades$11310 min
4/1/2026, 5:11:47 PM3 trades$287 min
4/1/2026, 5:25:51 PM45 trades$29629 min
4/1/2026, 6:02:49 PM2 trades$92 min
4/1/2026, 6:09:51 PM2 trades$50 min
4/1/2026, 6:19:05 PM10 trades$1898 min
4/2/2026, 1:21:15 AM3 trades$1241 min
4/2/2026, 1:35:53 AM14 trades$18515 min
4/2/2026, 1:57:31 AM33 trades$41920 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
04-01
04-08
04-14
04-20
04-26
05-02
05-09

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
0% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 15.5/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.2 br/event